I have a different take. Huntsman never broke 10% in the polls: he never received his bump, unlike Gringrich, Santorum and Michelle Bachmann. I think being a loud-mouthed attack dog will appeal to a wide swath of the Republican electorate and could even give Christie the VP nomination. And I predict that Christie will receive his bump in the polls, unlike Huntsman.
Christie has a stature deficit, but so do the rest of the GOP field. He has a weight problem and it remains to be seen whether he can physically withstand the rigors of hard campaigning - one of the few aspects of the election that screens for a major and often overlooked job qualification. I trust Christie can increase his message discipline - but whether he can do that sufficiently is by no means clear.
In order to be nominated for the Presidency by the GOP, you have to either be crazy or simulate crazy: Huntsman was far too neuro-typical. But Christie knows how to pitch meat to rabid dogs: this is Presidential caliber stuff for the typical Republican primary voter. The problem is that Christie might blast the wrong guy at the wrong time.
<checks watch> 11/13 eh? I’d say Christie is peaking a little too early.
Besides that, I think (or hope) a majority of the electorate will realize that there is no substantive difference between any GOP candidates. Sure, people may want to have a beer with Christie, but a vote for him for POTUS is a vote for ALEC, for the Heritage Foundation, for the Koch Brothers and so on, exactly like a vote for every single other GOP candidate is. How he comes across is irrelevant.
I’m not saying this out of partisanship- like Measure for Measure says, the GOP from another decade might present a viable option. But the guys who got us into Iraq, who shut down the government (twice), who think raising taxes on the wealthy is the work of Satan, who oppose food stamps and a minimum wage and job-creating stimulus, who seek to destroy the federal government itself out of some neo-Confederate animus- yah, the low-information voters may get suckered into supporting that, but I really hope the majority of voters have a minimum of sense and realize every GOP candidate is as worthless as the next.
Revisiting this Oct-Nov 2013 thread, in light of the recent vote to raise the debt ceiling. It passed. 28 Republicans voted for it, including the majority speaker and most of the leadership. 199 Republicans voted against it.
The 14th amendment states that, “The validity of the debt shall not be questioned”. Among those voting to uphold the 14th amendment were NJ Republicans Jon Runyan and Frank LoBiondo. (Wiki: “On March 4, 2011, Andrew J. McCrosson Jr., who served as treasurer of LoBiondo’s congressional campaign committee from 1995 until August 2010, pleaded guilty in federal district court to charges of embezzling more than $458,000 from campaign accounts over a fifteen year period. The charges included one count of wire fraud and one count of and converting funds contributed to a federal candidate.[4] McCrosson was sentenced 30 months in prison.[5]”) Although LoBiondo could use more discretion with respect to whom he associates with, he did vote to uphold the nation’s financial reputation.
Consistent with his loyalty to the nutcase right, Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) voted against the debt ceiling increase. Paul Ryan also displayed fiscal irresponsibility. I applaud the tiny minority of Republicans and overwhelming majority of Democrats (193-2) who upheld the nation’s sound credit. This wasn’t a vote on spending or taxes. It was a vote to pay debts incurred. Frelinghuysen and friends are deadbeats.
I marvel at how quickly old perceptions can be overtaken by events.
The Economist magazine once stated: “If you must forecast, forecast often.” So here’s my updated assessment. Christie should run for the Presidency. It will be tougher now, and he will fare worse in the invisible primary where candidates drum up cash among typically starry-eyed donors. Christie’s odds of being nominated are vanishingly small: his social policies will alienate hard right voters and the most charitable interpretation of his recent scandals is that he’s a terrible manager who chooses corrupt people to work under him. It’s difficult to see a path to the nomination.
However, he could get his bump in the polls. Among core GOP voters Christie’s popularity went up following Bridgegate. That’s right. It didn’t flatten: it rose following accusations of corruption.
So Christie isn’t dead, given that the Republican nomination is a conciliation prize anyway. The real competition is for a Fox News contract. Provided he can stay out of prison (not clear at the moment) all Christie has to do is act like a loudmouth and stonewall the corruption charges. The doe-eyed and butthurt modern conservative base will eat it up. Christie could make a modest fortune in the RW media if he plays his cards right. I wouldn’t say he has a strong hand though: they don’t permit interviews in Rahway for example.