If he had run a close second, I would agree. But since his second was so distant (and really was a third), no.
I’d say it would be fair to nominate Nirav Shah, who ran a close second (first before ranked choice was applied), albeit for governor rather than senator. But then, I would say that, because I’m a moderate and Shah is in the moderate lane.
I think that Jackson is probably the best choice, because the people of Maine clearly liked something about Platner. I really hope that what they liked wasn’t the tattoo or the misogyny (though, sadly, there undoubtedly were some who voted for him for those reasons). I think that what they liked was mostly his blue-collar background, and Jackson has that, too (and both are a specific sort of blue collar background that’s distinctive of Maine). That gives the party members someone they’d like, and hopefully that appreciation of a blue-collar background also extends enough across the aisle that he’d also be likely to win the general.
I’m sure that there’s going to be some polling on the question in the next couple of weeks, though (head-to-heads between the various candidates and Collins, questions about what qualities voters want in a candidate, etc.), and that data should also influence the decision-makers.
How are they going to decide who’s at the convention?
I was hoping that Heather Cox Richardson would be interested but she has said emphatically that she’s not going to be a candidate.
I don’t know how if this portends anything, but it was of interest to me:
Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary – about 159,000 votes cast
Maine Republican gubernatorial primary – about 80,000 votes cast
That suggests Collins reliably gets votes from many who usually vote Democratic.
Also, probably just trivia: The four top Democratic primary candidates all received between 20.6 and 26.9 percent of the vote.
EDIT - Although, re Collins vote-getting across the aisle:
[2020 Democratic US Senate candidate Sara Gideon] ultimately lost the [2020 Maine US senate election] by over 8% to Collins. Gideon was defeated despite leading Collins in nearly every public poll.
EDIT 2 - Collins did lose over 17 percentage points from the 2014 US Senate general election (68.4%) to the 2020 election (50.98%). Maybe some hope?
You can’t draw many conclusions from how many people vote in a primary. Some races are uncontested, or not seriously contested, and it’s possible for people to cross over and vote in the “other party”'s primary if they think that one is more interesting.
Can we draft Stephen King?
Embarrassingly, King is apparently a Platner diehard based on his tweets the last couple days.
Check my first link in my prior post. Both Maine gubernatorial primaries were seriously contested. Neither winner got 50.1% of the vote in the primary, so both needed their second-place ranked-choice votes to win the nominations.
As far as voters crossing over during primaries, Maine has semi-open primaries (PDF) which precludes voters registered with specific parties (~69% of Maine’s electorate) from voting in another party’s primary. “Unenrolled” voters – the remaining ~31% – can choose which primary in which to vote.
The primary data is not ironclad – there can be differences in fervency between a primary and a general election. But the primary data is not nothing, either.
Maybe I can find past Maine gubernatorial primary data and see if, say, totals of Republican/Democratic primary votes tracks with Collins’ US Senate general election vote percentages. Collins got over 68% of the vote in her 2014 general, so the hypothesis is that will show somehow in the gubernatorial primary data (e.g. the total gubernatorial primary votes that year were roughly even between the two parties, or perhaps the Republicans had more).
I’m assuming that the gubernatorial primary was on the same ballot as the senate primary, and that most people who bother to turn out for one will vote on both. And Platner probably motivated a lot of people to come out, one way or the other, while Collins didn’t have any meaningful primary opposition.
Ther already has been one poll on this. They did head-to-head between Collins and six potential D candidates, including Platner (I think it was taken before Platner dropped out). The only one who was ahead of Collins was Troy Jackson (by 5 points). A couple others were tied and Janet Mills, Platner, and another candidate all trailed.
I’ll be surprised if Maine Democrats go with anyone other than Jackson. His politics are similar to Platner, and he’s already been elected to office several times, so there’s unlikely to be any undisclosed skeletons hiding in his closet. More than they want Platner, they want some who will beat Collins.
Why?
Moreover, Collins remains beatable. She is running for a sixth term at a time when anti-establishment politics are on the rise. Her margin of victory during her last election, in 2020, was a respectable 9 points, but also her smallest re-election margin to date. And serving as a red politician in a blue state is only getting harder every cycle. As the Times’ Nate Cohn points out, “Over the last decade, all of the great electoral over-performers have watched the nation’s polarizing politics gradually pull their standing back to earth, and drag congressional election results into closer alignment with presidential results.” Democrats have a real opportunity to dethrone her.
Maine Democrats are planning to pick a new candidate through a nominating convention, although the specifics of the process are not yet clear. There are plenty of potential contenders to replace Platner. Former Senate President Troy Jackson already filed paperwork exploring a run on Tuesday, and Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said she would “seriously consider” entering the race…
It would likely be a mistake to try to nudge the process in favor of a tepid centrist. Platner rose from obscurity as a total outsider and won the support of 72% of Democratic primary voters on a boldly progressive platform that called for working class dignity, Medicare for All, a billionaire wealth tax and ending Israel’s genocide in Gaza. The potential replacement nominees should at least broadly reflect Platner’s sensibilities, or they risk discouraging and angering Democratic voters. A
Ah - I see where we’ve gotten off track. I’m not intending to compare gubernatorial primary to US Senate primary. I will post a graphic of what I’m talking about in a short bit.
Briefy: I’m trying to see if recent gubernatorial primary stats give us a view into what might happen in the 2026 US Senate general election.
I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make with that link, @DrDeth …
That there are a couple candidates who have announced themselves, and that The article thinks the race is still winnable for the Dems.
I assume you’re asking about why I expect them to do something stupid generally, not specifically about Costello.
For two reasons: first, the more centrist Democrats who lead the Maine party remain convinced that the key to victory is moving to the center. This ignores the voters and the current mood of the electorate. Ignoring the base does not result in victory.
Second, they are already screwing up the messaging. Platner wanted to have input in the replacement process (no matter what he says now). The Party (rightly) doesn’t want his involvement at all. But instead of being gracious, they made a point of emphasizing that Platner had no say, pissing off his supporters. All they had to say was something about listening to his supporters and ensuring that everyone felt invested in the process. They chose the approach of “quiet, we know best.”
He has since deleted his post defending Platner, and like most former supporters of Platner, he seems to have moved on.
The Hill: Stephen King deletes post defending Platner
He also later posted:
“Not defending Grah, Platner. If he committed rape, he should bow out. Just making a comparison,” he wrote, following up with a post to correct his misspelling of “Graham.”
The more people who can coalesce around whoever is chosen to oppose Collins, the better.
Why would Costello be a stupid choice?
Cite?
The link above gives evidence that progressive anti-establishment politics are on the rise among Democratic Party primary voters. It provides no evidence that such candidates are beating Republicans in purple constituencies.
For those who think being an anti-establishment Maine Democrat is a necessity to beat Collins – why not U.S. House Rep. Jared Golden?
I do not want Golden because, even for me, he is too conservative. But if anti-establishment isn’t just a hidden synonym for left-wing, Golden, who tows no party line perhaps to a greater extent than anyone else in Congress, is the most anti-establishment Democratic Party Maine politician.
Because he came in behind someone who wasn’t even running? This is clearly not someone that Maine voters like.
