What's the "critical mass" needed for the D's to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024?

Politics & Elections
1

A CNN poll shows that 75% of Democrats/blue voters want someone other than Biden to be the 2024 Democratic nominee.

That’s an overwhelmingly strong opposition number for a sitting incumbent president. I’m not aware of any incumbent president in recent decades who had that many people within his own party opposing him running for reelection - Reagan in 1984, Bush in 1992, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 2004, Obama in 2012, or Trump in 2020.

What is the “critical mass” needed to convince the DNC to run someone else? 85% saying no?

2

Biden announcing that he won’t run for reelection.

3

Those are pretty dismal numbers for Biden, to be sure. But voter response to this question alone isn’t enough to indicate what the Democrats should do. They can’t run a hypothetical “other than Biden” candidate; they have to run someone real, who will come with his or her own vulnerabilities. Have you seen the list of other Democrats whose names have been bandied about as potential 2024 nominees? It’s disheartening. Few aside from Harris have any nationwide name recognition.

4

I think it is already the number. Maybe past it.
Though not an American, I am mostly left politically, socially. But even in my country the left and center left are seeming to be too out of touch with many realities.
Even the far social aspects I can somewhat get behind. But they seem to be in a make believe world as to how to deal with the harder issues that need to be solved, or at least begin to be solved.
I think the DNC has already decided to run someone else. But I have no good guess who.
Maybe they do not yet know who. But anyone but Biden. Even main stream DNC leaning press are starting to go harsher on Biden.
Keep an eye on who they seem to be playing up. That may be the pick.

5

Hmmm…you seem to think Biden’s replacement would be more center/moderate than Biden himself.*

Maybe, but that would be a very unusual take on things. Most would say that most progressives “held their noses” (in the primaries, and certainly in the general) and voted for Biden DESPITE his centrism, because, hey, it’s better than Trump.

Indeed, many in the Dem primaries voted for Biden and not Bernie Sanders (just like they did for Hillary and not Sanders in ‘16), despite preferring many of Sanders’ proposals, because the critical goal was to attract just enough independent, white, blue-collar voters — who would vote for Joe in places like Scranton, Pennsylvania — to block a Trump re-election.

(Perhaps, as a non-US person, you are unaware of Biden’s half-century of centrism. And perhaps you were using his VP pick of Harris as a sign of progressivism — when in fact it was a sign, in part, of his need to attract progressives — not that Harris is all that progressive, really).

(Also, in your country, do party structures “pick” a candidate? Not here, they don’t. The DNC and RNC have some influence at a few moments in the process — e.g., allocating funds for certain local/regional races — but not as much as you seem to think.)

*Personally, I think his replacement, if any, should be just about the same as Biden in terms of centrism/moderation — again, to not turn off those folks in Scranton, PA and the like. I don’t enjoy catering so much to this not-huge group of folks, but for now, it seems we must.

6

Prediction: it’s a moot point as Biden will not seek the nomination in 2024.

The more interesting question, IMO, is who the nominee will be. I agree that Dems are lacking an obvious star candidate. I’m pretty sure Harris won’t be it – might not even run. Mayor Pete is a long shot with no real chance in the general election. He’d end up like Mike Dukakis. I wonder if Gavin Newsom is a possibility? Apparently he’s been thinking about it. There have also been suggestions of another run by Hillary.

7

I don’t see it happening, and actually consider it kinda dumb.

I get that progressives are mad at Biden for not being progressive enough, but surely the rank-and-file Democrats see the issue here. There is no other person in the party who polls high enough to overcome his incumbent advantage. And, possibly more importantly: there’s not much more the president can do.

The hold up is in Congress, not in the presidency. So the only reason to run a new president is to try and reinvigorate the electorate to vote Democrats into Congress. You need that one star to take over, and without it, you’re just reducing what chances you have.

Not to mention that the heir apparent if Biden were to decline to run would of course be Harris, who has her own issues with the progressives, while also being female and brown, which adds to reasons that conservatives would not want to vote for her. She is famously too brown for conservatives and too cop for progressives. She lost in the 2020 primaries, and has earned very little additional respect from her job as Vice President to propel her forward.

There is, of course, Bernie Sanders. But he’s got the same age problem, and the built in issues from being a fully declared socialist and not actually a Democrat. And he’s lost the primaries twice.

8

I think he would have to choose not to run for that to happen. He may very well do that. It all depends on his mental and physical health.

9

I think this is utterly absurd and the result of too many Bernie conspiracy theories. The DNC isn’t some Bond villain with a secret plan to take over the world.

10

Democrats may not like Biden, but they hate Trump more. So if Trump runs in 2024, which seems very likely, it’s which Democrat has the best chance of beating him. That may be Biden, or it may be somebody else.

Biden turns 80 this year, and Trump just turned 76. I think the country deserves someone younger as president. I’m tired of old rich white men running the country. When Biden got COVID, everyone held their breath. It’s time for a change.

11

If only there were some long-established method for determining who the party’s candidate should be. What would that be like? Maybe some kind of preliminary election in each state where pretty much any candidate can jump in and try their luck, and if they win that state they get, oh let’s say “delegates” to the national party, and whoever wins the majority of delegates of those available becomes the party’s national candidate? Yeah, that sounds like a viable system, maybe a few unnecessary complications and difficulties, but let’s suggest that.

TL:DR version: the DNC does not choose the candidate.

12

Canadian party leaders are picked by party members in a single national vote, those few people that have ponied up somewhere from $0-$10 and signed up for a membership card. That same leader can be removed by elected Members of Parliament of their party. There are no primaries or public caucuses like you have in the US. The Conservative Party of Canada just booting one of the leading candidates from the race for allegations of funding irregularities.

13

Interesting, thanks. As so much with Canada, about halfway between the US and British approaches. :slight_smile:

14

Age is the big reason why Biden is not the candidate to beat Trump. He’s the only candidate whom Trump could possibly make age a liability about.

With every other Democratic candidate - Kamala, Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez - age is a cudgel to beat 76-year old Trump with (along with, of course, Trump’s twelve thousand other flaws.) Only with 80-year old Biden can age possibly be a Democratic disadvantage.

I think some people (not you, but others) forget just how close the 2020 election was. Forty thousand votes in a few swing states was all that kept Trump from reelection. If the D’s renominate Biden, they might just do worse.

15

If the country swings back to a more conservative bent, there can be only one:

I know progressives hate him, but Manchin is probably the most electable Democrat right now in a federal election.

16

I don’t think national name recognition is necessarily important right now. If someone comes out of the gate swinging with a great message, they’ll get the recognition they need at the right time. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama come to mind. Even Pete. Before 2020, he was a little known midsized mayor from Indiana. In just a few months he was a household name.

I think if Biden announces he’s done, you’ll see some names in the mix that you probably don’t know much about, but perhaps (God willing) one will be the right person for the time.

17

Yes, the DNC is not a cabal that decides in a smoke-filled room who will be the Democratic candidate for President. If it were, that would probably help Biden — he appointed the Chair and Vice Chairs.

18

No fucking way.

See above.

This is what I’d prefer to see, although it’s riskier than Biden running for re-election.

Our biggest election win in recent memory was in 2008, with Obama the star. (True, the circumstances were entirely different – the economy was tanking with Republicans at the helm.) I think a new star candidate can make the case that, even though we’ve had a Dem president, it’s the Republicans who are keeping most Americans from seeing the progress and protections they want.

Of course, the zillion-dollar question is, who is that person?

19

Ronald Reagan wouldn’t get conservatives to vote for him if he ran as a democrat. Cross party appeal should not be a factor taken into consideration. Neither Obama nor Biden required any measurable support from conservatives to win the presidency.

20

It would certainly be good for a laugh. Jim Webb was when he ran for President in the wrong party in 2016. But electable? Manchin would turn Massachusetts and Hawaii into battleground states that Trump would likely win.