Sure, but the conditions are ripe for a Democratic challenger. When three-quarters of people within an incumbent president’s own party don’t want him to run for reelection, it’s a prime chance for Newsom, Buttigieg, Beto, or AOC to step in and give Biden a run for his money in the primaries - more so than perhaps any other incumbent-presidential primary in many decades.
Corollary question: If Biden decides not to seek a 2nd term, when is the best time to announce it?
Can’t be too soon, because he’s an instant lame duck. Can’t be too late, because that hurts the other potential candidates.
That’s his popularity rating in West Virginia.
Not really. I shared a 538 cite a little bit ago that shows Biden is significantly ahead of all the main contenders. Yes, in general, people blame Biden for things not under his control- inflation, high gas prices, and trump not being in prison. Not to mention the constant stream of lies pumped out by the GOP and the Kremlin. So, in general, people like the idea of some other Dem. But no specific Dem. Here is the more recent version:
Note that Biden beats everyone, and everyone but Pete beats Newsom, and everyone beats Pete.
Right.
Exactly.
Someone has to hammer this into the progressives brains- if we run a progressive, we lose the election. If we lose the election, we lose Democracy.
Beto, AOC or Buttigieg mean the end of American Democracy.
The DNC has almost no power. They were made into a bugaboo by the Sandernistas.
All you have to do is find someone else who can beat trump. 538 shows both Harris and Biden can edge him out. Both beat DeSantis handily. Sanders loses.
However- Biden is old, and in a stressfilled job, but his health is good. trump is also old, but in not as good health. One or the other quite possibly won’t be able to run in 2024.
It’s a terribly written article. The first paragraph says he’s ‘among the most popular in the country’, but the actual ratings they show are, as you say, for West Virginia.
But here’s the poll for the entire country (at the bottom of the West Virginia stuff):
That might be a useful reference for seeing which Democrats are currently in favor. According to that, Manchin is the second-most popular Democratic senator in the country, at 57% approval. Only Patrick Leahy is higher, and it’s probably within the margin of error. Kyrsten Sinema is dead last in popularity.
She also makes Hilary look charismatic and down to earth by comparison.
That’s absurd. Certainly this election is insanely important and I do agree that Democracy is literally, without hyperbole, on the line. But that running a progressive is an instant loss is a unfounded statement. Biden BARELY won as the most middle of the road candidate possible. And he won partly because he gave lip service to a bunch of progressive ideas. To argue that we need someone right of Biden to win defies logic and statistics.
Does that mean we should run Bernie again or AOC…no. But running moderate centrist corporate Democrats has been the status quo for 30 years and look where we are now?
Based on the known candidates today I think Buttigieg is probably the best one, and he’s too conservative for my liking on a lot of issues, but he’s possibly the right age and has the right temperament to compete with the new fascist platform from the right.
My biggest question is what about women…we can’t risk the country just to be inclusive. But with RvW and the other attacks on women happening does a male candidate inspire fewer females to show up? Does a gay candidate mitigate that at all? Does it alienate too many southern blacks to get through the primary? Let’s face it…we have Biden because of the southern black vote…for better or worse.
Nope, it’s poorly worded. That’s still the approval rating within their state (it’s more clear if you click to the actual data). I doubt 62% of voters have even heard of John Thune, let alone approve of him.
I don’t think anyone is polling individual Senators nationwide unless they’re running for president.
Do you know who else is female and brown? Candace Owens. Republicans seem to like her just fine. The ‘base’ REALLY likes her.
In 2012 abnd 2016 Republicans started campaigns to get Condoleeza Rice to run.
Janice Rogers Brown, a black female, was appointed to the circuit court by George W. Bush, but her appointment was blocked for two years by Democrats, who didn’t want Republicans to be able to point to a Black woman judge as one of theirs. She was on Trump’s shortlist for the Supreme Court twice.
The favorite economist of Republicans is Thomas Sowell, a black man.
The Republicans’ favorite justice is Clarence Thomas.
Here in Canada one of the favorites of Conservatives is Leslyn Lewis, a black woman. She was a contender in the last leadership race (she came in third), and is a serious contender this time as well. I have never heard a conservative complain about her race or gender.
One of the favorite senators among the Republican ‘base’ is Tim Scott, a Black conservative. Lots of Republicans are hoping he’ll run for President.
It’s long past time to let go of the characterization of Republicans as a bunch of racists. Republicans are picking up black voters in larger numbers than they ever have, and more Hispanics now support Republicans than Democrats. The Democratic party has been trending richer and whiter for some time now. In the meantime, minorities and the working class are shifting to Republicans. Perhaps a change in strategy is warranted.
The reason Republicans don’t like Kamala Harris is because she is a lightweight clearly way out of her depth who can’t string together a coherent thought without a teleprompter. She is lazy, has failed at or has been invisible in every job Biden has assigned her, and appears to be abusive to her staff when she embarasses herself by refusing to read the prepared briefing papers she’s given before she opens her mouth, then later yells at them for not preparing her properly. Her staff turnover rate is quite something, and a few of them have talked about the experience.
And it’s not just Republicans. Kamala Harris’ approval ratings suck.
And that’s why you don’t want to run her, not because Republicans are racists.
Democrats have a winning strategy: If your weakness is that independents find you too far to the left (and they do), find a solid southern or midwestern governor with moderate center-left politics and a good reputation at home. Jared Polis, Laura Kelley, Andy Beshear, Steve Sisolak, Michelle Grisham, John Bel Edwards…
John Bel Edwards is very popular in Louisiana. Steve Bullock is very popular in Montana. These are people with high popularity in purple/red states. They would be very good candidates for a Democratic president. Laura Kelly from Kansas is a popular Democratic governor of a red state with only a 24% disapproval - one of the lowest in the country, so she’s able to get along with both sides of the aisle.
Pick someone like that, and you’ve got a shot at reclaiming the Presidency. Go with Harris or another progressive firebrand like Gavin Newsom, and be prepared for a long winter of discontent.
Yes- because Republicans are liking him. Which means nothing in a Dem primary, and very little in the General. Few Republicans will pick any Dem, even Manchin over trump.
** Over the past year, Manchin has doubled his approval rating among West Virginia Republicans, to 69%.*
Exactly. So a big move to the left means a loss.
Buttigieg is openly gay, and a instant loss, not to mention he has little experience.
I do not care what Republicans think of her. The 538 polls I showed with just Dems, shows her beating everyone but Biden, and usually beating trump, but there it is very close. Popularity today means nothing, since EVERY.SINGLE. REPUBLICAN will rank every single Dem as “utterly craptastic” with the apparent exception of Manchin in his own state.
The people you have to win are independents. Democrats will vote for a Democrat. You don’t need to ‘win’ them. You just have to not nominate someone that alienated centrist Democrats and keeps them home.
And Democrats really need to figure out why they have lost Hispanics and are starting to lose Blacks and Asians. Democrats have shifted their values from those of the working class and poor minorities, and instead now represent the values of the faculty lounge and well off urban liberals. It’s hurting your party badly.
That’s because no one’s campaigning
Not seeing what you’d talking about. What poll shows everyone beating Pete?
FWIW, the nationwide numbers for Manchin as of Jan 2022:
32% favorable
42% unfavorable
27% don’t know
If you want to break down the somewhat/very favorable numbers, it’s
14% very favorable
18% somewhat favorable
9% somewhat unfavorable
33% very unfavorable
It will be interesting to see how Tim Walz does in his reelection bid in Minnesota this fall. He was pretty progressive on his COVID policy, which drives the Republicans in Minnesota crazy, but they’ve pretty much been batting zero in statewide offices recently.
Congress is unpopular. Plus, being in Congress forces you to have a history of taking positions on lots of controversial topics. Then when you pivot to what is the more popular stance nationwide, you get tagged as a flip-flopper. A governor will almost always be more electable.
But with our primary system, the candidate who best appeals to the median November voter cannot win the nomination. So it is pointless to sat that the Democrats, or Republicans, should nominate a true centrist, even though I wish they would.
DJT is a weak November candidate but will probably got the GOP nomination again. Ditto Biden on the other side.
Go up and read my first cite.
Pete loses badly vs any Dem.
I’m looking at the link that you posted which is directly above where you say Pete loses to everyone. In that link all i see are a NH poll where Pete leads, and the other recent polls are Echelon Insights polls where he only loses to Harris, and is above everyone else.
But regardless, all of these polls are absolutely positively meaningless since no one is actively campaigning. These polls mean zip-a-dee-do-dah, for pete, for Harris, for anyone and everyone.
Assuming (without conceding) that you have accurately described her, that can’t be the reason Republicans don’t like V.P. Harris. They loved a prominent Republican with all those negative traits and a whole lot more. So maybe it’s not racism, but you will never convince me that the modern Republicans have anything against lazy, abusive, incoherent, out of their depth politicians.
Harris 27, Buttigieg 10/ Harris 26, Buttigieg 13. Biden beats Harris, so If Harris beats Buttigieg by 17 points, and Harris beat Newsom by 30 points, the conclusion is Buttigieg loses to all of them. They don’t even bother to poll in in others. Note that when Harris beats Buttigieg 27-10, Newsom, Abrams and Warren all come in at 7%. So yeah, in that poll Buttigieg edges out Newsom, but not in others.
In the Harris 23/Clinton14 poll,- Newsom comes in at 9, Buttigieg 6, tied with Abrams.
That one was just for the NH primary with 16 choices
Married, with two kids, Joseph and Penelope. Note the old-fashioned gendered names.
Pete is just the kind that someone uncomfortable with gays — but who wants to tell themselves they aren’t bigoted — will gladly make an exception for.
I would agree that being gay is a risk. Could help, could hurt, who knows? Being 80 — now, that can only hurt.
As for little experience, it would be better for the country for the President to have been Secretary of State rather than Secretary of Transportation. But in terms of electability, the more experience, the more ammo for oppo research.