First you see if Hillary wins them, then if she does the states count. If Hillary doesn’t win them, they can’t be important, silly.
Not incidentally, many of the most populous states are also states with the oldest populations. Small wonder Hillary does well in them. She’s got the white geezer vote wrapped up!
Together, they approximately equal Pennsylvannia for Democratic delegates. (It’s one less, I think.) But in general electoral votes, they together count more than Pennsylvannia alone. (26 to 21).
Whichever state Hillary loses doesn’t matter…I thought you’d learned that by now 
In electoral vote terms, North Carolina is in the approximate upper fifth with 15 EVs (technically, it’s the upper 22% with 11 states having 15+). I’d say 15 is an appropriate bar for “important” states speaking in electoral vote terms but your opinion may differ.
Indiana shares a spot with 34% of the country having 11+ EVs (17 states). I think you’re talking more middle ground there. Again, YMMV.
“Hillary supporters are old and stubborn, so we should bend to their whims and just nominate Hillary.”
Are any of them superdelegates? IIRC, Edwards has/had 26 superdelegates in his column. If all of those go to Obama, that would be pretty substantial at this stage of the math.
Gotta say, none of the Boomers I know are Hillary fans. My in-laws (staunch old hippies, bless 'em) seem disappointed that their children aren’t actively campaigning for Obama.
No superdelegates among this batch. However, Obama has already picked up some of the Edwards pledged delegates (and also picked up one of Hillary’s, who switched!) at the county conventions in Iowa.
North Carolina matters! Not only is my guy getting the nomination, we in Greensboro are getting a free Arcade Fire show out of it. Awesome.
Thanks!
You lucky bums!
Can CNN come up with any other BS to make Hillary look like a Godess? Good God Wolf Blitizer is more pathetic than I thought!
Anyway, I know why I don’t watch CNN…I guess I just need to flip over there and look every once in a while.
This Primary has come too far for Barack to “implode” now and that is the basic strategy I am seeing: Let the RNC run nasty ads in NC, air them constantly, hope some people from his core jump to HRC and hope for the best. And of course don’t forget to air Clinton saying, * “I just LUUUUUUV Indiana”* a hundred times before a commercial break.
Doubtless, her aunt Rhoda grew up in Indiana and taught her how to race Indy cars when she was a little girl.
IN and NC are both moving from red to…well, reddish purple, anyway. I don’t know how good Obama’s chances would really be to win NC this fall, but the fact that the game’s gone on this long means his people are organizing NC as we speak - hell, have been for weeks, I’m sure. This will set up a fall campaign where Obama’s organization has, to an amazing extent, organized almost every state already.
In PA, the number of registered Dems crossed the 4 million mark, and 2.3 million voted yesterday. (Kerry got 2.9 million votes in PA in November 2004.) The DNC, and the Obama campaign, can put all that info in its data banks.
I’m sure the same thing’s been happening in NC and IN: more registrations, more Obama organizers knocking on doors and finding out which of their neighbors are Dems, and (assuming the superdelegates don’t suddenly end this in the next 13 days) more people voting in Dem primaries.
Obama may have a real shot to win NC this fall. And even if he doesn’t, running as if he does will help prepare the ground for Dems to win in NC down the road, and will help boost the fortunes of Dems in down-ticket races this year.
And the same thing in Indiana, with the caveat that it’s NOT going to go Dem this year unless Obama clears 400 EVs. But like NC, it’s moving from red towards reddish purple, anyway - just not as far along. I’ve seen a poll saying Obama’s down only 7 to McCain in Indiana, and it would be a big deal if Obama lost IN only by single digits this fall. Indiana’s still the most conservative state in the Midwest, but ISTM that it’s ready to be just a little more conservative than Ohio, rather than way more conservative, if nudged the right way.
It’s not really my argument, it’s the one I suspect Clinton is making in her “he can’t close the deal” theme. I’m also saying it’ll be a compelling and legitimate argument for some Supers over the next two weeks. The persuasiveness of the argument will probably show up in a lesser than expected amount of Supers announcing over the next few weeks along with a better showing for Clinton in those up coming contest.
I read somewhere that the last time Indiana had any importance in a presidential primary was 1968 when Robert Kennedy won the state and sewed-up his nomination.
I think Caroline Kennedy should go to Indiana and speak in support of Obama. She could refer to her Uncle Bobby saying, “gee, how nice if Barrack could wrap the whole thing up in the Hoosier State too!”
I feel that Obama will do fine in the two biggest counties: Marion (Indianapolis) and Lake (which includes Gary and is almost a “bedroom county” for Chicago) . It’s the suburbs (especially of Indy) and the rural areas where Obama will have problems.
That’s why I think Caroline should give her speech in a place like Carmel or Fishers (affluent Indianapolis suburbs). Maybe she could sell some of the Camelot aura to the Soccer Moms.
You know, that’s a darn good point someone made. This fighting, this long fight, means that the Obama campaign is hugely organized and mobilized in states the Republicans havn’t even fought in.
This might rock serious shit come November.
That’s what we’re counting on…Thanks Barack - well done!