Next up: Indiana and North Carolina

I hear you. Yep, these recalcitrant, calcifying old Boomers just won’t be satisfied till they get their way.

And things will only get worse. We can count on the Boomers retarding progress for decades to come. I can see them marching on, rank on rank of stubborn, gimlet-eyed, creaking Boomers, Beatles music pounding into their earbuds, drowning out the shrieks of the disposessed and disadvantaged. While the rest of us starve for change, they’ll be slurping up their Activia yogurt, bowels regularly churning, building their muscles as their bodies decay, denying us access to their pristine lawns, interminably delaying the Age of Enlightenment. Gaaa!! It’s the:

**NIGHT OF THE LIVING BOOMERS!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: **

Gawd, let it end…

Of course Tarheels like their roundball, too.

These are the basketball primaries!

sigh And guess what’s already happening in NC.

That also means Florida will remain more-or-less unorganized territory until after the convention; the Dems here will have to build their campaign org up from scratch and the Pubs will be only slightly ahead.

Yeah, why do I get the feeling McCain will be “deploring” a lot of ads this fall?

SurveyUSA is, again, showing Hillary way the heck ahead.

In Indiana, yes?

Indiana polls.

Answered my own question.

What is it with SUSA and their weird outliers? Every one else has Obama up (3 to 5%). How’d they compare to everyone else in the Pennslyvania primary?

SUSA’s final Pennsylvania poll was around 10% like the rest of the final day polling so they did about as well as the next guy.

There was polling a couple days before (from other folks) showing it closer to 5-6% but the 4/21 polls ranged from 7-10%.

A nit to pick - SUSA’s PA final was like everybody else’s at about 6%, not 10%. They reported a huge shift in the final week, suddenly predicting the same as everybody else and did no better no worse in that sense. They had Hillary up by 18 just 2 weeks earlier. No one else saw huge shifts like that in that time period. Make of that what you will but I can’t take their early polling too seriously if they are an outlier.

But before that, even to the end, they were showing Hillary up 17%.

SUSA’s 4/20 actually had Clinton by 6% but look at the two weeks before: Clinton +14 and Clinton +18.

I’m just wondering why they continue to have these numbers that are so out of synch with everyone else’s numbers. And what caused that rather large 8 point swing at the very end?

After reading that over, I want to clarify that I’m not ragging on SUSA. I’m genuinely curious as to the why of the outliers and big swings.

Although this article doesn’t really discuss SUSA, it does offer some interesting insight into why some polls differ so much.

Oops. I should have confirmed the SUSA number before I posted. My point was that they seemed to “normalize” in the final days but I should have double-checked the numbers.

Biggirl, I’ve been guessing that there is some methodological difference in how the different players have been defining “likely Democratic voter” … who is going to actually come out given the particular dynamics in which there have been so many new Democrats registered who have not voted Democratic before or, in open primaries, independents and Republicans voting in the Democratic primary, etc. I think that such is an especially hard thing to call this particular cycle and that they are using different metrics to make that determination. Which of course doesn’t explain SUSA’s big flip that no one else saw …

Obama nabs another superdelegate

43 North Carolina Mayors Endorse Senator Obama

IFPTE Endorses Senator Barack Obama for President

Ah, I see that they weigh each area differently AND each demographic differently too. So if one poll has a selection bias (not that I’m saying there is one, only IF) it would not be so simple to pick up.

The reason I mention selection bias is because there was some discussion on the under representation of younger voters-- especially college students-- who do not have land lines. I think that would skewer toward Clinton. But, according to the article, PPP skewers Obama consistently.

You know, I passed statistics in college but I remember hating that class!

Something has been bothering me (besides the inner workings of pollsters). Hillary’s campaign has been crowing about raising 10 million in 24 hours. That’s what all the news outlets are reporting.

But that’s not exactly what Hillary’s campaign said.

Well, the 24 hours are up and I haven’t heard what the actual numbers were. Does anyone know?

Nope she has not - Hillary Hub and her website do not have it posted. So I doubt it was acheived. However, I did notice something…Clinton’s Branding on her website is atrocious IMHO, the fonts are mechanical and the photos and gushery make it like a brochure page to a cheap all expenses paid vacation to Tijuana.