Next up: Wisconsin and Hawaii

[Santo_Rugger]

@Happy Lendervedder

I think it may have been a way for Chelsea to take a mid-February vacation, paid for by her mother’s campaign.

“Hey, mom, I’d like to hit the campaign trail. Wisconsin? Nah. Pennsylvania? Yeah, I don’t think so. Wait, there’s a caucus in Hawaii, right? I think I can do your campaign some real good over on the islands.”

So when do the kid gloves come off as far as Chelsea is concerned? She’s tough and “legit” enough to campaign for mom and go after her mom’s opponents, but once someone in the media says something “mean” about her, suddenly Hillary goes all “mom” on us? Chelsea’s a grown, college-educated woman; I understand trying to protect your daughter, but if you put her out on the campaign trail, you have to accept that the media and public and opposition will sometimes say not-so-nice things about her. It has to come with the territory.

It seems to me that Hillary wants to have an “untouchable” campaigner on her side. Fuck that. I think MSNBC should’ve stood up to Hillary’s bullshit, and not caved by suspending whats-his-name because of his “pimping out” comment.

But I digress. Sorry.

The content of this post makes me sick. Not because I disagree with it, but because there’s a chance that such a hypocritical person may be our next leader. Although,after seeing the results of the 2000 and 2004 elections, my level of surprise is minimal.

[RTFirefly]

@Crotalus

Does anyone know what the asterisks next to the names of polling firms ARG and PPP mean on the RealClearPolitics site? I couldn’t find what it referred to. Since ARG is involved, maybe it means “this firm’s data sucks.”

PPP is Public Policy Polling. I’m not familiar with their history, but according to Survey USA’s pollster report card that I can’t seem to locate right now, they haven’t done too well this primary season.

BTW, on the RCP site, the pollster’s name in red is a link. Sometimes it goes to the pollster’s web site, and other times it goes to a news story summarizing the poll’s results.

[RTFirefly]

@Jophiel

Judging from their averaged data (which excludes ARG & PPP), I think they DO mean “This is some really shakey data so we’re not going to count it”.

That’s interesting - up until now (or at least up until recently), they’ve included all pollsters in their average, whether they were worth a damn or not.

But given how much data we’ve got, just this cycle, on the quality of many of the pollsters, it makes sense that by now, they’d exercise some judgment based on pollsters’ track records to date.

I guess that’s what the asterisks by ARG and PPP are about, though I didn’t see any footnote.

[alphaboi867]

@BrainGlutton

I was born in Ohio, but my parents were not natives (they were grad students), and we moved away when I was two. I have no other connection to Ohio. If I were running for POTUS, I don’t think Ohio would consider me a native son. Why would the Hawaiians feel that way about Obama? His parents were not Hawaiians, they met as college students, and his family moved away (to Indonesia) when he was six.

He later moved back Hawai’i at 10 and went to Punahou School in Honolulu. So about 14 out of the first 18 years of his life were spent in Hawai’i.

[BrainGlutton]

@alphaboi867

He later moved back Hawai’i (at 10?) and went to high school in Honolulu. So about 14 out of the first 18 years of his life were spent in Hawai’i.

Well, that makes more sense, then.

(How could any sane adult willingly move from Hawaii to Chicago?! )

[Digital_Stimulus]

@BrainGlutton

Well, that makes more sense, then.

(How could any sane adult willingly move from Hawaii to Chicago?! )

Well, my wife (then fiancee) and I graduated from UH in 2000 (technically, December of '99). I was 29, my wife was 25. We moved to Indiana for grad school.

Until someone has lived there, I’m not sure one can understand the…hmmm, how to put it…the worldview involved. Let’s face it, Hawaii is 2500 miles or so from the nearest land mass. The culture shock, for lack of a more apt term, that I experienced on moving there when I was 24 (not for school, just on a whim) was tangible.

[Anomalous_Reading]

@nameless

Wow. I didn’t think Sawyer could possibly be so heavy-handed as y’all were saying, but she really went after that. And failed horribly.

And see… that’s where a talented politician with truth on their side something to behold. The “challenging” question is just another awesome opportunity to make a solid, slam-dunk case. I’ve seen a variety of politicians do this over time.

It just never gets old.

Thanks for the link!

[Spoke]

Uh oh. Looks like the elderly white ladies are turning out in great numbers.

…But a substantial majority of Democratic voters are women, more than usual for a Wisconsin Democratic primary…

…The preliminary results also indicate that more seniors than usual are voting in the Democratic race – up from their 2004 level, and also potentially a high for Democratic voters this cycle, though again it’ll take final data later tonight to see that holds…

That’s been Hillary’s strongest demographic. If Obama manages to win with that group comprising the largest voting segment, I’d say Hillary’s really in trouble.

[Shayna]

@spoke-

Uh oh. Looks like the elderly white ladies are turning out in great numbers.

That’s been Hillary’s strongest demographic. If Obama manages to win with that group comprising the largest voting segment, I’d say Hillary’s really in trouble.

Don’t ‘uh-oh’ so fast. From here:

– Change trumps experience, 52 to 24.
– Very few first time voters – only 17%.
– 27% of the electorate were independent
– Clinton was seen as the most unfair attacker;
– Obama (55%) was seen as the candidate most like to improve relations with the res tof the world.
– Clinton and Obama are seen as equally qualified to be commander in chief (50% and 48%), while Obama draws 60% or more on the questions of who best can unite the country and beat the Republicans.

Now, can you imagine for one moment, 52% of respondents preferring change over experience, but voting for Hillary? Or 55% of voters finding Obama the most likely candidate to improve world relations but voting for Hillary anyway? Or 60% feeling Obama would be better at uniting the country and beating the Republicans, but voting for Hillary anyway?

Now, I know anything’s possible, but if it turns out that way, I’ll be stunned.

And look for ways to turn Wisconsin over to Canada.

[Merkwurdigliebe]

@Shayna

Don’t ‘uh-oh’ so fast. From here: Now, can you imagine for one moment, 52% of respondents preferring change over experience, but voting for Hillary? Or 55% of voters finding Obama the most likely candidate to improve world relations but voting for Hillary anyway? Or 60% feeling Obama would be better at uniting the country and beating the Republicans, but voting for Hillary anyway?

Now, I know anything’s possible, but if it turns out that way, I’ll be stunned.

And look for ways to turn Wisconsin over to Canada.

Could be that he’s finally cracked her last bastion of support…

[DrDeth]

I predict WI will be more or less a tie. Hillary should win back her lead in Texas and Ohio.

Th erace continues to be a dead heat, despite loud noises from the Obama camp.

[Marley23]

@DrDeth

I predict WI will be more or less a tie. Hillary should win back her lead in Texas and Ohio.

Just looking at the numbers, that appears to be a pretty tall order.

[Onomatopoeia]

It’s currently 55% Obama 44% Clinton, but the gap is narrowing by the minute on CNN

[asterion]

Well, CNN and MSNBC have called WI for Obama. So now the only question is how big did he win and with what demographics?

[Harborwolf]

@Onomatopoeia

It’s currently 55% Obama 44% Clinton, but the gap is narrowing by the minute on CNN

Have to say that these are my favorite sort of results. Obama leads with 0% of the precincts reporting

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

Fox called WI for Obama too. From the sound of things, the exits don’t look good for Hillary and Obama has pretty much closed the gap in the Texas polls as well. This might be all but over in a couple of weeks, even with the contrived Obama “controversies” popping up on a daily basis.

I predict the Clinton campaign is going to get really nasty for the next two weeks. If they’ve got the pics of Obama with a goat, this is the time they need to use them.

[asterion]

The only place I’ve ever found exit polls is at CNN.com. Some notes:

Obama wins all males 66:32.
Clinton wins all females 51:48.
Obama wins all voters under 60.
Obama and Clinton split voters with a high school degree.
Obama wins voters with higher degrees.
Obama wins the under $50,000 income 53:46.
Obama wins all income categories polled by a range of 1 to 30%.
Obama wins Republican voters 70:30 and independents 62:34.

If Obama wins of course he won across the board but Clinton didn’t win any groups except women and the elderly.

[Shayna]

Me:

[tnetennba]

The best news is that Hillary’s negativity didn’t pay dividends. The bad news is that she didn’t get trounced so thoroughly that she knows she better stop. My concern is that she’ll continue to do run GOP-style attack ads and slander Obama and his supporters until neither of them is deemed as electable, while McCain finishes morphing into Bush III.

[Jophiel]

Wow… I’m a bit surprised at Obama’s Cable News Cockblock of starting his speech during Clinton’s stump speech, essentially shutting her off the wires in favor of his victory speech.

I will fully admit that I was thinking “Ha!” and would have bitched if she did it in reverse. Sometimes I just allow myself a moment of enjoyable emotion over logic.