NFC East 2009

Dallas loses another game they should have one. Folks over at the Cowboys boards are calling for the heads of Wade Phillips, Jason Garrett, and Tony Romo.

Yeah, they’re kind of sad.

The Giants on the other hand are reminding me more and more of the Patriots dynasty as time goes on. That’s a well put together, well coached bunch.

I mean, fuck them and all; I’m just saying.

The Giants are looking very good and if Eli is OK they are getting better as some of their injured players are trickling back now. The Raiders should be another easy game. I hope it is, but the Giants actually looked sloppy yesterday despite the score.

Coach is probably going to kick a little butt this week to get them back in the right mindset.

The Giants real test is in two games against the Saints. It is likely to be a shootout with a good Giant’s D against a great Saint’s O and a good Giant’s O against a weak Saint’s D.

Can’t say I blame them vis-a-vis Garrett and Phillips. Garrett just doesn’t seem to realize his team is set up to run the ball, and Phillips doesn’t seem to realize he’s allowed to tell Garrett what to do.

No comments on this week’s games. The Iggles win easy, the Cowgirls get lucky, the Skins are the Skins, and the GIANTS only blemish was a muffed punt leading to a short field TD. Being able to sit the starting QB before the half said it all.

I predict the GIANTS’ defense will give Drew Brees and company fits, but the only kink in their armor has been versus the run when facing Dallas. Can Bush and Thomas provide equal fits?

And then there is Shockey…

I’d be more worried about Brees than Bush/Thomas. The Giants haven’t played any top-flight passing teams yet (the Cowboys passing game is a mirage).

I really wonder about what Shockey will do. I suspect the defense is going to keep him contained for most of the game. It helps that he is not as great as he thinks he is. I am not saying he is not really good, but his ego is greater.

I also think our offense will have a chance to put up a lot of points. The Saints Offense is going to be a real challenge, but there defense does not overly impress me.

Fearless prediction: The Giants’ D snares three…no, make that four picks off of Brees.

I hope so, I really hope so.

Does anyone think the Vikings are for real? Are they as good as the Saints and Giants?

I think they’re for real. They’ve been a championship caliber team for a couple of years now, *except *for the fact that they’ve been stuck with some of the worst starting QBs in the league. If Favre can just be league-average, they’re an elite team.

That said, I personally find it hard to believe that Favre can get through three or four playoff games with suffering at least one complete meltdown.
As for New Orleans, I think they’ll win the NFC if and only if they get the #1 seed. If they have to travel to New York, Philly, or (to a lesser extent) Minnesota in January, they’re going to look pretty ordinary.

I think the Giants defense will be sorely overmatched by the Saints offense. The Jets defense made them look ordinary, but I don’t think the Giants will be able to have anywhere near that level of success.

However, I think Eli is an elite passer who can go toe to toe in a shootout with anybody, unlike that huge turd the rookie Sanchez laid. I predict both teams score well into the thirties. As for who wins? Flip a coin.

I think many people still scoff at the notion of Eli being an elite passer, and I totally understand that. Hell, I still consider Peyton a playoff choke artist even though he won a Superbowl. I totally get how easy it is to dislike and dismiss the Mannings. So from a Giants fan, here are some numbers to chew on for Eli:

Has the second highest passer rating in the league (111.7), behind only his older brother. (114.1)
Has a full yard better Yards-Per-Attempt than Brees. (9.0 vs 8.0), and a better TD-Int ratio than Brees. (10-2 vs 9-2)
For QBs who have started at least 4 games, Eli is in a two-way tie with Peyton for fewest sacks allowed. (2 each.) Note that both Mannings have played 5 games, though Eli did get a half off last week. Still, only 2 sacks in 4.5 games is impressive. (His career averages are excellent, at 1.56 per game and 19.8 attempts per sack.)

Of course Brees has played a couple tough games against the Jets and Eagles, compared to the Cowboys and Redskins for the Giants. Don’t hold the Raiders against Eli too much, though, as Brees got his own stat-boosting matchup against the Lions on opening day, where he threw 6 of his 9 TDs.

Generally speaking, every time Eli has faced an elite passer he has at least held his own, often outplaying his counterpart. He was an even match for Brady in both their matchups, outplayed Roethlisberger in both their matchups, held his own against Rivers in their only matchup to date – can’t wait for the rematch in a couple weeks – and has played an even match against both his division rivals. (Sorry, Washington; only McNabb and Romo qualify, and Romo might not any more.) That’s why I expect a shootout on Sunday. However good Brees plays, I expect the same from Eli.

Unrelated fun fact: The only two QBs not to fumble yet this season while starting every game: Brett Favre and Matt Ryan.

It’s a bit of a pain in the ass to compile division rankings, so I’m thinking quarterly reports should suffice. Here’s the first quarter report:

#1 NFC East 11-4 (73%)
#2 NFC North 7-3 (70%)
#3 AFC North 7-5 (58%)
#4 NFC South 7-8 (47%)
#5 AFC East 5-7 (42%)
#6 AFC South 4-6 (40%)
#7 AFC West 5-8 (38%)
#8 NFC West 3-8 (27%)

#1 NFC 12-7 (63%)
#2 AFC 7-12 (37%)

The Western divisions continue to suck hard, though you might think San Francisco’s resurgence would help out. Sadly no, as their only wins are within their own division; they’re 0-2 against the rest of the league.

For the second time this season the NFC East would have gone 4-0 except that the Redskins lost to a winless team. First it was against the Lions, and this past week it was against Carolina. In their defense, they played both games close, so they have that going for them.

An incredible stat I saw on Sportscenter: The Redskins have played winless teams every single week this season. (The Giants were 0-0 when they played in week 1.) That’s 5 straight weeks against winless teams, and that streak continues next week as the Redskins face off against the Chiefs. We can safely ignore the Giants game as both a division game and a season opener, so no coach’s hot seat for that loss. But to then go 2-2 against four straight winless opponents? Yikes.

If I were the Giants, I wouldn’t be punching my division championship just yet. The Eagles may contend for the title.

They certainly might, though they didn’t look so hot against the Saints. (Without McNabb, though, yes?) I think the Eagles are generally considered in the second tier along with the Bears, Falcons, 49ers and Packers, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them climb back into the first tier within the next couple weeks.

But not heel to heel.

Nyuk, nyuk.

And if those numbers hold up for a full season, you’ll have a heck of a case. At present, they’re a one-month trend that runs counter to the rest of his entire good-but-not-elite career. There’s probably a dozen guys in the league now who have put together stretches that are just as good (I know McNabb and Romo have, and I’d put both of them a notch below Peyton-Brady-Brees)

I saw that too, astonishing.

*By Chris Chase: "If the Washington Redskins’ schedule was any softer it would be on a package of Charmin.
<snip>
Week 1 – at New York Giants (0-0)

Week 2 – vs. St. Louis Rams (0-1)

Week 3 – at Detroit Lions (0-2)

Week 4 – vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

Week 5 – at Carolina Panthers (0-3 – Note: Carolina had a week 3 bye)

Week 6 – vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-5)"*

First time in history and will end the following week when they play Philly.

There are a shit ton who haven’t lost any fumbles yet, though.

I would virtually guarantee that they won’t hold up for the whole season. But they are absolutely consistent with his performance in the early (non-windy) months of the season. He always starts off strong. His numbers for the first four weeks of 2008 were virtually identical to his first four games of 2009. He gets worse and worse when the winds at the Meadowlands pick up as the temperature drops. I think he’d have very close to Peyton Manning career numbers if he played in a dome with divisional opponents in Florida and Tennesse instead of Philly and Washington. (Note: Peyton’s always had a dome, but was in the AFC East for a few years before realignment.)

Check out the passer ratings from his career split stats:

91.0 September
85.4 October
70.3 November
68.6 December

61.4 Windy

88.1 Games 1-8
68.8 Games 9-16

The other groups are pretty small, like for instance he’s only played in 6 indoor games in his life. (His first indoor game was in the NFL.) In those 6 games he’s got a 100.1 passer rating; I’ll be interested to see if this holds up on Sunday. I’m expecting it will, but hey, on any given Sunday, right?

Which is why, as much as I’ll be rooting my ass of for Big Blue on Sunday, I won’t be too bummed if they lose. If that game becomes the deciding factor for home field in the postseason, I think I might be happier with the Giants playing in New Orleans in January.