NFC East 2011

The Game Room
101

I went through and gave a general idea during the preseason of where I think the Eagles finish. Now that some games have been played I want to see how that may have changed. Three games is plenty to get an idea of who is legit and who isn’t.

Philadelphia Eagles 1-2
vs. SF
I can’t believe this might be a tough game, but it probably will be. I have to think the Eagles are just far more talented and win at home, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a tough game. The Falcons and Giants overcame significant yardage disadvantages to win late because their offensive weaponry was good enough to get it done, I don’t think the Niners have that firepower yet. Start Vernon Davis in fantasy. 2-2
@BUF
Once a gimme game that has swung the other way. Very easily could be a loss, but I think if the Bills need 4 INTs from Brady to beat NE by 3, they’ll have a tougher time throwing against Philly and won’t fare as well. NE is last in the entire NFL in pass defense, Philly is 8th. Tough game and very easily a loss, but I think the Eagles take it. 3-2
@WAS
Before the season I thought the Eagles were far and away the cream of the division. I thought Washington would be competitive but unsuccessful. Now I think the division is all comparable enough that it’s probably only fair to split all the division games. 3-3
BYE
Vs. DAL
Andy Reid is terrific after the bye and I think the Eagles will have made enough adjustments by now to right the ship and start looking like a real team. Dallas will be tough here with Miles Austin back, Dez and Felix and Romo presumably healthier, but I’ll give the home game to Philly. 4-3
Vs. CHI
Finally the Bears at home and not on that god-awful abomination of a field in the WIndy City. Chicago could be the perfect bad matchup for the Eagles if Martz knew how to call a run play. Maybe he will. But I think the Eagles force Cutler into a few sacks and a couple bad picks and win. 5-3
Vs. ARI
It always seems like a high profile player making a highly publicized move to another team will play that team in the coming season. Kolb comes back to Philly but his tendency to hold the ball too long will really cripple them offensively. Eagles win. 6-3
@ NYG
The Eagles played the Giants much closer than people realize. Outside of a few costly one-off mistakes, they were handling them and poised to really put the Giants away going into the 4th. The Giants hung on, made veteran plays when they needed to, and the Eagles didn’t. I think that turns around in this game. I don’t see anything from the Giants to indicate they can sweep this series. 7-3
Vs. NE
The book right now on Brady is to hit him and make him antsy (league lead in sacks - check) and take away their passing game as much as possible (four high quality CBs - check). The Pats will run more and destroy Philly with their TEs, but I don’t see how one of the worst defenses in the league will slow down Philly enough to win on the road. 50/50 game, but the tie goes to Philly at home and the matchup isn’t good for the Pats. 8-3
@ SEA
Was a gimme in preseason, should be a gimme now. But there will be one game the Eagles absolutely blow for no reason and I think this one is it (Min last year, Oak the year before, the tie in Cin before that). Going from the northeast on Sunday to the far northwest on Thursday, with Seattle having the best home field in all the NFL, and after beating NE the week before. Let down game. 8-4
@ MIA
I don’t see enough from this team yet to think they have much of a chance, and they aren’t much of a home team anyway. 9-4
Vs. NYJ
Awful matchup for Philly. NYJ will pound the ball against what promises to still be an awful Eagles run D. Their corners can take out the Philly WRs and limit the big play and their LBs are good enough to contain Vick’s big plays. The score will be close because the Eagles will make Sanchez look bad, but it won’t actually be a close game. 9-5
@ DAL
I actually don’t think Dallas is as good as Philly, but I don’t think the talent is disparate enough to warrant the Eagles sweeping this series. 9-6
Vs. WAS
Home game to finish the season and it will probably be for a playoff spot. The Eagles will take this one. Though there is a significant chance for the pressure of this entire season, with all the hype and all the attention coming down to one game, that Philly collapses under the pressure and loses. I won’t rule it out. 10-6

10-6 is a far sight worse than the 12-4/13-3 I predicted before the season. This team is talented enough to squeeze into the playoffs but they’ll need to fix their significant problems to get anywhere this year. Luckily, their biggest problems are fixable because they boil down to simple adjustments - tackle better, keep your man in front of you and limit the big play, tackle better. It wouldn’t take much for them to steal an extra game or two in the division. 12-4 isn’t out of the question, but 11-5 is probably the ceiling. Once they get into the playoffs (this assumes the adjustments have been made or they won’t be there at all) they match up really well with the presumed top dogs in the NFC because of their elite secondary and pass rush. They purpose built this team to match up against Green Bay and New Orleans and that same blueprint should also work for Detroit and Dallas, and maybe the Giants too. I still think if the Eagles get into the playoffs, they make the Super Bowl. I still think they probably lose once there to anyone but New England (for whom the same blueprint should work the same way).

102

Quoting myself because I want more people to see that video. I giggle every time I see it.

The Eagles are making more changes at LB. Casey Matthews is getting benched, and while I am sad to see it because I really wanted him to prove everyone wrong and develop into a quality player, it was beyond time. Matthews completely blew a play that led to a Giants TD last week. He’s improving, but too slowly. I think he can be a starter with a year under his belt to learn without pressure, but this team needs someone now. Enter Brian Rolle. The “little ball of hate.”

This guy just makes good plays. He took nearly the exact same play Matthews screwed up and broke up the pass in single coverage and prevented another Giants score. He flattens linemen who outweigh him by a hundred pounds. And out of all the LBs the Eagles have, he’s the one most likely to make a big sack/TFL when the team needs it. I honestly can’t say that about any of the others. Here’s hoping it helps out, even if it is a small change and not likely to make a significant impact. If this doesn’t work or help at all, the team is in a lot of trouble. There really isn’t anyone they could go out and get.

103

“Prove everyone wrong” seems like a weird way to put that. He was a marginal prospect who inexplicably got tapped, with no backup options, to start for a good team from draft day on. Not every draft pick has people just decide he’s Zach Thomas and praise him for his instincts in the absence of evidence for either one, which I just won’t get into.

Even while he was obviously terrible in the preseason, he had support. The guy got more credit than he deserved, not less. I’d say he already proved most people wrong.

That said, nothing’s going to change fundamentally. The linebacker problem is an institutional one. They think this is how you run a defense. If offenses don’t engineer specific plays to isolate and exploit Rolle, that’ll be a nice change, but I’m prepared to just watch a bunch of assholes running around in the middle of the field trying to find the tight end, or crashing through the wrong hole, or charging upfield with their heads down while a screen goes floating over their heads for the rest of the year. And next. At least their receivers are awesome.

104

This, exactly. And I feel bad for the kid because it’s not his damn fault; it’s not like he came out of the draft saying he deserved to start or something. They put a kid who everyone, including them, saw as a late-round prospect into a very high-profile position. With – and this is the unforgivable part – no backup plan other than jerking around all the other unproven young LBs and then inserting a *different *late-round rookie prospect.

Rolle has played well in limited action. Betting that a 5’9" LB will hold up all season is a risky proposition.

This, also, exactly. :frowning:

105

When he was drafted I think the marginal fans who don’t pay much attention saw the name and loved the pick. But once that faded and the lockout ended Matthews was not really supported by anyone with a voice. He was not at all supported by fans and writers from the Pittsburgh preseason game on. Every post and comment about him was regarding what a liability he was and how he didn’t deserve to start (all true enough). You’re way off thinking he got more credit than he deserved. The guy has been thoroughly trashed by fans and writers for weeks

As for me, from what little I saw of him it was pretty much all good stuff. Not elite athleticism but his instincts were exceptional. Generally the ability to do the right thing and understand the game translates from college to pro. And his biggest knock, his size, was absolutely bullshit as I posted about on this forum. I made a pretty crazy prediction based partly on wanting to go against the grain. Yeah it’s a bit silly. But never posting anything and never having an opinion, while safe, is cowardly and boring.

I’m thinking that the coaches genuinely believed in him and thought he could start from day one, from as far back as the draft. “This guy is a Matthews, he’s gonna get it” I can hear them saying. Castillo never said anything about him in praise other than about his bloodlines. They let all the experienced(ish) LBs go and inserted Matthews in from day one. That was obviously their plan all along. Completely misguided considering the lack of preparation and learning time.

106

Gonna have to come up with a different nickname. That one’s already taken.

107

Thoroughly trashed while he was starting on an NFL team. That constitutes sufficient support from those with a voice, from my point of view. I don’t think it’s nearly true that only some marginal fans thought it was a good pick, but that’s beside the point because what fans think doesn’t matter. Once you’re on the field all the time and playing terribly, I think the time for the “nobody believed in me” thing is done.

It seems like you think I was talking about you specifically. I wasn’t, for the record. I just heard instincts, instincts, instincts, a leader, always in the right place, works hard, football IQ, over and over, and I’m sorry, but that was always crap. For one thing, it’s mostly guesswork. I watched plenty of him at Oregon, and I went back and watched highlights around the draft. He played 7 yards downfield and mostly just ran downhill and tried to make an arm tackle almost every play, as far I could tell. He had all kinds of trouble in coverage. Maybe he was in the right place all the time, but I don’t know how anybody knows that from videotape.

The other thing is, “great instincts” is only worth bringing up if it means he’s a good NFL player. It’s one thing to point out that he’s smart, but it was more like: he’s undersized, kind of slow, not that strong, bad in coverage and doesn’t beat blocks, and doesn’t make that many plays, but he has great instincts! I definitely want a starting linebacker who knows what his job is and works hard at it, but what about being good? That’s what bothers me - Matthews wasn’t that good in college. Zach Thomas, from what little I remember of him, would stand out during a Texas Tech game, and not only because he averaged like 12 tackles. There was no reasonable basis for people to compare Matthews to him, but that’s what they did. In reality, he was like most guys who aren’t highly rated - not good enough at football to start. It’s definitely not his fault, but it’s also the way it is. And the Eagles not only drafted him, they committed themselves to him. It would be infuriating if I hadn’t learned to take a little joy from their antics by now.

I don’t know what you mean with the cowardly thing - maybe because I didn’t know that you had made a prediction. I’m just talking about general perceptions. Everyone can predict whatever they like; I just don’t want them running the teams I follow if they predict silly things.

108

No, not going to happen. Dude played almost a decade ago for a different sport. That doesn’t count for much. Not my nickname anyway.

We’re talking about two different things. I’m not talking about the people in the organization who make the calls, I’m referring to the fans, the bloggers, the beat writers. After the Pittsburgh game he was near universally dismissed. You can say that what the fans think doesn’t matter, fine, but that’s what I was talking about.

As for Matthews, I don’t recall reading anyone else comparing him to Zach Thomas. I know I did, and on this board no less, so assuming you were referring to me was a pretty natural conclusion to draw. But to disparage what he did at Oregon now just stinks of hindsight to me. I had heard that he overachieved at Oregon. The Eagles very clearly built their draft around overachievers. But I didn’t really know too much about him admittedly. And I do tend to root for the overachievers with good intangibles.

109

You even mentioned hearing it elsewhere yourself, as it turns out:

So maybe you’re misremembering. Either way, even going just by things that show up on a google search, no, you were not the only one to utter that blasphemy. I thought it actually came up during the draft broadcast, but Walter Football is the only one I definitely remember.

You’re right, though, these are two separate issues. Admittedly, I’m just shooting off on the subject because people aren’t concluding what I want them to conclude. I’d only point out that it isn’t hindsight to talk about his evaluation; that’s really what I’m trying to say. He was always just another player, which is why he was a 4th round pick, right about the spot where they took Keenan Clayton and Quintin Demps. It’s not a controversial or convenient ex post facto thing to point out that he wasn’t a standout prospect.

The only thing in this entire story that separates him from thousands of other forgettable players is that the Eagles put him in this position, and that that somehow convinced other people to treat it like that was the appropriate expectation for a while. Even this past Sunday, Bob Ford had a story in the Inquirer about what did Matthews’ move from the middle to the outside mean in the long term, and does Castillo not really see him as his middle linebacker of the future? As if we can’t just say that their 4th round pick who looks like a bad player is a bad player, when the reality is that if you keep the 116th pick on your roster all year, you did pretty well. At draft time, they had bad linebackers. Preseason, it was obvious that they had bad linebackers. Now the linebackers unit is playing terribly, and it’s like well, we have to bench Matthews, what a disappointment. Why be disappointed?! At what point did this seem like it wasn’t going to happen?

110

Yeah, I definitely wasn’t remembering correctly. I do remember coming to that comparison myself and starting the post. I did a little looking around to see what others had come up with and I had to change that sentence midpost from what I found. I even remember reading that same walterfootball site. Strange, I had completely forgotten. I suppose it’s better to not be the only idiot.

I think it might be selling him short to just dismiss him as another 4th round pick/prospect that shouldn’t ever see the field. Or that the realistic hope is that he just makes the team. The Eagles value those late picks so highly because they expect them to develop into players down the road. Hell, they need those guys to develop or their entire approach to the draft would be a waste. And they’ve had success from time to time in the later rounds. Considering the relative expectations between an early round pick and a late round pick, I think the Eagles have done much better with their late rounders than early ones.

I’m not sure Casey is completely done. I’m still rooting for the guy. I just don’t really want him in the starting lineup this season. Actually, Chaney might have been even worse over these three games than Matthews, he just hasn’t been isolated on film for single-handedly causing a TD. God, this linebacker group might be the worst I’ve ever seen. If I think about it too much I start to really think this team won’t even make the playoffs.

111

NFC East Week 4

San Francisco @ Philadelphia
I already posted that I think Philly wins. I think they have to win, too. I totally buy into the idea that this is a must win game, like everyone in the media is saying. I think this will be a tougher game than most think or than the spread indicates. So if the Eagles win, how they win will tell me a lot. I’ll feel much better about this Eagles team if they win by 14+. If they win by 6 or a margin within a single touchdown, I won’t feel even a little better about this team overall. There is no reason the Eagles defense should have trouble with the Niners other than Vernon Davis. And when a team has one legitimate threat you had better fucking figure out how to stop that one thing. I’m already pissed about this game.
Eagles by 10

Detroit @ Dallas
Is Detroit legit? Everyone seems to be asking. Part of the reason we do is habit. Detroit always sucks and we’re trained to mistrust them. Another part is that, while 3-0, they haven’t been convincing enough. A 7 point win against a Tampa team that looks to be below average isn’t convincing. 48-3 is really convincing until you see it was at home against a Kansas City team that is probably the worst team in the league. And they sure got stomped in the first half of that Minnesota game. But I’m also not sure Dallas is legit. And I think this Detroit team is just a bad matchup for Dallas, even at home.
Lions by 6

Washington @ St. Louis
I think this ends up being one of those games that we look back on and wonder what happened. I just see the Rams winning it. It isn’t as if Washington is dominating even the teams they beat. They’re a solid, middle of the pack team. And St.Louis has been really, really bad. I think this game means something to the Rams because losing it means they will probably go 0-7 to start the season and even if 8 wins could win the West, they aren’t winning 8 of their last 9 games. They know they need this game. And they’re at home and finally getting some of those injured players back. And I think the loss to Dallas, without giving up a touchdown, will linger a week for Washington, who are probably looking past this game to a real test next week.
Rams by 3

**New York Giants @ Arizona **
This just screams let down game to me. The Giants were definitely jacked for that Philly game last week. I think a lot of people are picking the Cardinals for that reason. But the Arizona O-Line still stinks, the Giants’ pass rush still crushes QBs, and the Eagles will definitely not be fortunate enough to have the rest of the NFC East lose. The Giants are too talented to lose this game, despite their best efforts to do so.
Giants by 6

112

I know they’re not a great team, but I hardly think their bye week will be a “real test.”

113

This game is almost identical to the situation going into the Rams game last year. The Rams were 0-2 and looked really bad in those two losses. The Skins opened the season with a win over a division opponent (Dallas) and lost a heartbreaker to the Texans going into the St. Louis game. The Rams kicked the shit out of the Skins that day, even with Stephen Jackson going out, getting several turnovers including a fumble recovery for a TD in the first quarter, earning Sam Bradford his first NFL win. Chris Long was everywhere for them on defense.

I’m sure that the Shanahans have not forgotten that game. This one will be close.

114

Indeed. There’s certainly going to be motivation for St. Louis to win their first game of the year, and they’re bound to have some confidence coming in having beaten the Redskins twice in their three meetings the past three years, but there’s motivation for the Redskins to go into the bye feeling good about themselves at 3-1 instead of 2-2 and losers of two straight.

115

Perhaps he’s confusing them with the Bengals. That’s always the biggest test for Cincinnati. :wink:

116

Gah! I meant their next game. At least I know that if I ever start to develop a superiority complex I can turn to this thread for a dose of humility.

Ha, Minnesota comes to mind as well.

117

I know what you meant :wink:

The fact that they do have the bye next week; that they haven’t shown any reason to be arrogant enough to look past any opponent; and, as DCnDC pointed out, have a recent enough history with the Rams, leads me to think they’ll be pretty amped up for this game.

I too think it will be close, but I think Hightower and Helu will be able to run the ball well and while the depleted Rams secondary worries about the deep threats in Moss and Armstrong, Cooley and Davis will excel in the short game, ultimately leading to a TOP advantage that limits the damage Bradford and Jackson can do, and Washington pulls out the win on either a late FG or defensive stand.

I want them to win and think they should by all rights, but honestly I’d just be happy if they could improve their red zone efficiency. They’ve been pretty good between the 20s so far, but once inside the 20 they really struggle.

118

It’s all theorycrafting and armchair psychology, but I would think their tough loss coupled with a bye the week after is enough to think they won’t show up sharp this Sunday. And it isn’t as if the Redskins/Rams is a fierce rivalry. I think the 'Skins would win this game 8 or 9 out of 10, I just have a hunch this week is that rare one.

Though that begs the question: do teams look past an inferior team towards a bye the same way they might for a tougher opponent? I might spend some time looking into that, because I would guess teams would.

119

I’m not sure about other teams, but I can’t imagine that beating the Giants and barely getting past the Cards at home means the Skins can really look past anyone at this point. Were we going into this game without that ugly second-half no-show on Monday night, maybe, but as it stands right now I can’t really say with any confidence the Skins are the better team vs. anybody.

120

A viable theory, but I’d argue the exact opposite. Losing a game they should have won against their most hated rivals due mostly to their own failings and not due to being outplayed and knowing they can give their all and have a week off to recuperate afterwards, coupled with their shellacking by the Rams last year should have them raring to go.