Green Bay Packers
2011 Record: 15-2. For the season it was 15-1, but when talking about the Packers, you need to include their depressing playoff loss.
Key Additions: Jeff Saturday, C; Cedric Benson, RB; Draft picks Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy, Casey Hayward.
Key Losses: Nick Collins, FS; Chad Clifton, LT; Scott Wells, C; Matt Flynn, QB; Desmond Bishop, ILB (likely out for quite awhile)
Strengths: QB, WR, TE, OLB.
Weaknesses: LT, RB, D Line,
Questions: Can the O Line (especially at LT) protect Aaron Rodgers? Can the D Line provide a pass rush? Can the young guys in the secondary get better? And, of course, just how good can Aaron Rodgers be?
Overview: It’s Aaron Rodgers’ world and we’re all just living in it. He’s the engine that makes it all move, and his play can overshadow some of the problems with the defense. After last year’s playoff loss, in which he did not play up to his lofty expectations, he’s got a chip on his shoulder this year. If he can play at the level he has, this team should make a run to the Super Bowl. If he can’t, gets injured, or has a bad game, I’m not sure the running game and defense can pull out a win for him.
With Aaron Rodger’s importance to this team firmly established, the next issue becomes protecting him. The O line is pretty good, with a Pro Bowler in Josh Sitton (RG), young solid players in Brian Bulaga (RT) and TJ Lang (LG), and a crafty veteran who, hopefully, has a bit left in the tank (Jeff Saturday). The huge issue is LT, where they lost Chad Clifton to age and injury. The first string LT, Marshall Newhouse, hasn’t looked great in games (though the coaching staff proclaim their love) and has missed time with a concussion, and the Packers’ first round draft pick last year, Derrick Sherrod, broke his leg last year and still hasn’t practiced. That’s not good. Not good at all. Either Newhouse or Sherrod need to get healthy and start playing well.
The rest of the offense is damn good (excepting RB). Greg Jennings (when not concussed), Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Donald Driver are one of the best, if not the best, WR crews in the NFL. Add in Jermichael Finley, a talented headcase, at TE and the staff’s love of Alex Green as a pass catcher at RB, and it’s an offense to fear. The running game is all but non-existant, though. James Starks showed promise, but he’s a liability in pass protection, is often injured, and makes waaaaaaayyy to many mental mistakes to be a solid starter. Alex Green is likewise young and oft injured, but is well liked by the staff as a third down maybe more back. Behind him there is some undrafted talent (Brandon Saine and Marc Tyler), but nothing you want starting at this point. They signed Cedric Benson (I’m still confounded why him and not Ryan Grant), so there is a hope he’ll be able to pound it still, but I don’t think he’s a good fit for this offense. But the running game is pretty much a second (or more like an eighth) thought on this offense, and if Rodgers is on, it’s one of the best in the league.
The defense, however, has been hit or miss. They led the league in interceptions (Yeah!) … and in yards given up (Boo!). Piss poor tackling, giving up too many big plays, and a lack of a pass rush made it one of the worst (statistically) defenses in the league. They have some studs making plays (Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews Jr.), but they need other guys to compliment these players. The D Line simply hasn’t gotten it done. BJ Raji is OK I guess, but hasn’t lived up to his draft position, and Ryan Pickett is a solid run stuffer, but gets little to no pass rush. And the fleet of other DE’s are too injured (Mike Neal), too ineffective (Raji, Wilson, Wynn), or too both. Their GM, Tim Thompson, addressed this in the offseason by signing a few free agents (Daniel Muir, Phillip Merling, Anthony Hargrove) and drafting a couple of others. They hope second round pick Jerel Worthy can immediately help when their in the nickel and that fourth rounder Mike Daniels can be rotated in and make a difference in the base defense, but that is unknown at best. The Packers are listed as a 3-4 defense, but more often than not, they played a 2-4-5 last year. It will be interesting to see what their DC comes up with this year. But unless there is improvement on that line, it could be another long year for their secondary.
And speaking of their secondary, they were horrible at tackling last year. Sam Shields, an undrafted rookie phenom/Super Bowl starter last year regressed and has been demoted and the usually studly Tramon Williams was not himself (some blame his injured shoulder). Add in Charles Woodson’s getting old and questionable tackling and the loss of Pro Bowl, top 5 Free Safety Nick Collins to career ending neck injury and it was a bad year last year. The Packers hope a couple of younger CB’s can step up (Davon House or Casey Hayward are the best bets) and/or Sam Shields gets his shit together again. But they still have questions at the safety position, where Morgan Burnett is fine but makes too many mistakes and they have nothing proven at the other. The thinking is that Charles Woodson will slide to safety during certain looks and help confuse the defense, so it’s not horrible. The lack of a pass rush last year really made the secondary look bad, though they did a fair bit of that themselves. I wish I could say for definite they’ve improved, but I haven’t seen it yet.
Finally, the linebacker corp needs to get someone opposite the great Clay Matthews to bring pressure. They drafted Nick Price in the first round to be that guy, but despite glimpses of greatness, he’s making a huge transition and is a liability in coverage so far. They lost Desmond Bishop likely for the year, so the heart of their linebacking corp is gone. They hope and think that DJ Smith will fill that role, and he’s done a good job so far, but it’s just preseason and he’s anything but proven. AJ Hawk is solid but unspectacular, and Clay Matthews is spectacular, but needs help because he’s constantly double and triple teamed. Still a lot of questions.
Special teams are special … finally. Randall Cobb is an excellent KR/PR/WR/RB/Waterboy, Mason Crosby has a big leg and is solid and Tim Masthay had a great year last year.
Big picture: the Packers, thanks to injury and age, didn’t improve as much as other teams in this offseason, though there are certainly reasons to hope. If they can get even just solid contributions from their young players and not get Rodgers killed, the Packers should be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Prediction: 13-3 with another Super Bowl appearance. If Rodgers stays healthy and they can generate a pass rush and tackle, they just may win it.
