NFL 2023-2024: Divisional Round

The Game Room
1

The not-so-wild Wildcard weekend is now behind us. Only one of the six games was competitive, as the other five featured double-digit blowouts. Three favorites were on the receiving end of those beatdowns, including both teams from the NFC East. Meanwhile, two teams from the NFC North survived, along with both teams from the much-maligned (by me, anyway) South divisions.

Divisional Weekend is considered by some to be the best weekend of the playoffs. But this year, the oddsmakers think that only one of the four games will be close. Of course, what do those guys know?

Again, all lines taken from DraftKings. Times listed are Central time. The weather appears to be a bit more cooperative this weekend, although it will be cold in Baltimore and Buffalo.

Saturday:

Texans @ Ravens (-9) 3:30 pm, ESPN/ABC
Packers @ 49ers (-9.5) 7:15 pm, FOX

Sunday:

Buccaneers @ Lions (-6) 2:00 pm, NBC
Chiefs @ Bills (-3) 5:30 pm, CBS

The Ravens, who have looked dominant down the stretch behind possible MVP Lamar Jackson, host the Texans, led by rookie-of-the-year favorite C.J. Stroud. Stroud’s playoff win last Saturday matched the total number of playoff wins by Jackson in his six-year career.

Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant from two years ago, goes for his third playoff win with the Niners in his second season. Jordan Love, who was outstanding against the Cowboys in his first playoff appearance, will try for another upset in San Francisco.

The Buccaneers will try to keep their hot streak (6 wins in the last 7 games) going in Detroit, as Baker Mayfield just notched the second playoff win of his six-year career. They will face the Lions, winners of four of their last five. Jared Goff, winner of a Super Bowl two seasons ago, continued his solid season in Detroit.

The most intriguing game (on paper, anyway) is the Chiefs visiting Buffalo. With the win last Saturday, Patrick Mahomes now has more playoff wins (he’s 12-3) than Aaron Rodgers, Roger Staubach, and Troy Aikman. Of course, all of his non-Super-Bowl playoff wins have come in Arrowhead, as this will be his first road playoff game. The Bills defeated the Chiefs last month 20-17, which was the game that is best remembered for the boneheaded offside penalty by Kadarius Toney of the Chiefs. Expect to see the replay of that play more than once between now and Sunday evening.

After last weekend, it’s painfully obvious that I know very little about the NFL, so I’m just going to sit back and watch the games, and hope that there’s more than one good game this weekend.

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Goff made it to a Superbowl but didn’t win.

3

Duh, my bad. Stafford won the SB two seasons ago.

Good catch.

4

Now it’s Goff’s turn for a ring!
:smirk: :wink:

In all seriousness, I like the Lion’s chances against the Bucs, and I can see them defeating either the Chiefs or Bills in the NFC game and possibly getting into the SB.

But…I’m afraid it’s very likely, assuming the Lions do manage to make it into the SB, they will face the Ravens again, and another likely beatdown similar to the 38-6 game last October. The Ravens are just too good.

Oh well…after winning their first playoff in 32 years, any other wins are all gravy for us Lions fans. We are the Oliver Twists of NFL fandom, and beating the Rams in Wildcard Weekend was our second helping of gruel.

5

If the Lions defeat the Bucs, they will play either the Niners or Packers in the NFC Championship game.

Chiefs and Bills are in the AFC.

6

Oh man, I knew that, what a brain fart. Possibly the dumbest post I’ve made in a long time, and that’s saying a lot.

I actually don’t feel great about the Lions chances against either the Packers or 49er, assuming they do get past the Bucs.

I think I will take a break from posting for a bit now…

7

I crunched my numbers for the Det-TB game. I predict:
Detroit 35, Tampa Bay 23.

For the SF-GB game, I predict:
SF 34, GB 3.

Don’t really have time or desire to predict the AFC games.

8

I’ve mentioned this in another thread but is worth repeating here.

As a long suffering Lions fan, I found myself in Vegas during the bye week and while there I placed a $15 parlay for Lions over Chiefs (+4000) in the Super Bowl on a lark. I know better than to bet for or against my team because it just leads to trouble, but they were hot off that MNF win and I was drinking the Kool-Aid a bit.

That ticket still lives, so I have officially become a Chiefs fan for the next two weeks. Of course I want that Lions Super Bowl victory, but sending that ticket in and getting $615 back will be the cherry on top should the Lions make it all the way.

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Nobody “won” that game, especially those who watched it. (The Patriots scored more points but it’s like they just lost less than the Rams did.)

Cooper Kupp won that SB! :laughing:

…Okay, snark about old Superb Owls now over.

I’m rooting for the Lions by the way. I’m not a Detroit fan but that fanbase deserves this.

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Your cheers are a nice thank you for the Lions getting you in the playoffs last year.

11

That’s true!

:pray:

HIGH FIVE!

12

In June I placed a $1 bet on the Ravens and Lions as the Super Bowl participants. The $130 payoff is still alive!

13

With all the Bills’ injuries on defense, I think Mahomes will go off for 40 points on them, sadly.

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I don’t care … I’m still rooting for the Bills. I’ve got lineage - I was born in Niagara Falls - so I’ve been rooting for the Bills since OJ was racking up yards for them. I had to work during the Norwood wide right Superbowl, but I had to suffer through the next three consecutive years of Suberbowl losses. That Dallas blowout damn near did me in.

I trust in Josh and the Bills Mafia to nut up and pull it out, so to speak.

15

Given that the default for point spreads is that the home team gets three points, the Bills are kinda sorta underdog-ish. With that in mind, the only favorite I pick is the Lions. I’m seeing the Texans, Packers, Lions and Bills winning this weekend.

All my picks in the Wildcard round came true but of course I didn’t post them because I’m lazy. Now that I’ve posted my picks in the divisional round, none of them will come true.

My wildcard pick reasoning somewhat carries over to this week. It was as follows:

    Wildcard Picks (Source: Trust me, bro!)

    Packers win because - just to piss me off - they’re going to make it to the conference championship. 30+ years of having a solved QB position is just wrong, damn it!

    Lions win because there was no way this world is so unjust that their long time franchise QB, who won the Superbowl immediately after leaving the team, would then come back and prevent them from getting their first playoff win in 30 years.

    Bucs win because the Eagles have been truly shitting the bed for a while now. They got curbstomped by the fucking Giants with a potential 2 seed in the playoffs on the line!

    Bills win because the Steelers didn’t have Watt and they were 1-10 without him. Bills are also just a better team. This was the biggest no-brainer, IMO.

    Texans win because Joe Flacco would revert to his Jets form in the playoffs. In the end he did not. His passes as a Jet didn’t go anywhere near anybody; both of his pick 6s against the Texans were probably better than any pass he threw as a Jet. And he was pretty solid in the first half.

    Chiefs win as the Dolphins freeze to death. They’ll get this one win with Taylor Swift in attendance but their ship is sinking fast. This ended up not quite going as I thought, both because the Dolphins didn’t seem to mind the cold and the Chiefs seemed to get a spark of new life with the emergence of a real WR in Rice.

But I'm sticking to my guns for the divisional round that the Packers are making it to the conference championship and the Chiefs are one and done.

I think the Texans might be better than the Ravens, as crazy as that sounds. And like the oddsmakers, I think the Lions are better than the Bucs.

(Note that all my picks are just for winners, not against the spread.)

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It does sound crazy but they’ve shown flashes of greatness and any team (Ravens) could have a bad day.

CJ Stroud would become a legend if that happened. I’m getting the feeling that he might be the “next big thing” (next elite QB always around the top of the list) given how well his rookie season has gone, and in my eyes it doesn’t look like a fluke or beginner’s luck. He just looks really good.

17

If the Ravens beat up on the Texans then I fully expect the Ravens to win it all.

18

Bolding mine.

From your lips to Lombardi’s ear. I see a chance for Green Bay to pull it off, because hope springs eternal and this is finally starting to look like a complete team.

That said, San Fran runs exactly the kind of offense designed to give anyone fits, and Green Bay is almost definitively a middle-of-the-road defense (YAY for progress!). A good punch in the mouth early might set the tone for the game, but the 49ers seem like a very well-coached team, and Aiyuk/McCaffrey/Kittle/Samuel is just a grinder, and Purdy doesn’t seem to panic (go ISU!) when things don’t go perfectly (see Dak and McCarthy having “discussions” with CeeDee Lamb last weekend). But the Green Bay Packers have shown they can put up the points when things click. Could be a shootout where Love and Co. stand a chance. Or a blowout where Nick Bosa just wrecks everything.

19

I kind of butchered that expression. I meant one win and then out.

20

I just can’t get that three game losing streak out of my mind where the 49ers lost to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals. I think they were full strength at the time; were there key injuries that contributed to those losses that I’m unaware of?