I think they need a leader. Is Aaron a leader or a talented diva?
(To answer my own question, I think he is both. But what matters is how much he is one or the other.)
I wonder if last year’s Broncos/Wilson disaster has scared teams off the “veteran QB as savior” idea. Rodgers at his best could absolutely elevate the Jets to Super Bowl contention, but at his worst he could wreck the locker room and set the team back years.
On the flip side, Tom Brady was absolutely an upgrade when the Bucs got him.
But he’s always been known to be a real team player, having sacrificed potential salary and putting in the work every year with the Pats. And, unlike what’s been reported about Wilson, very realistic about the strengths/weaknesses of his own play style and the sort of offense he should run. Short of a catastrophic injury, I doubt anybody remotely thought Brady was going to be a disappointment.
Rodgers could also be that guy, but there are legitimate questions about how well he may work with the coaching staff or the other players, especially if/when he doesn’t get his way. Those diva-like tendencies are real.
On the other hand, grabbing Brady put them into immediate “win now” mode. Three years later, they’re heading for a complete rebuild. It worked for them since they got a SB out of it, but you wouldn’t grab Rodgers unless you’re in a position to immediately contend. There aren’t really many teams in that spot except for the Jets.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Raiders think that they are, but OTOH, they just fired their defensive coordinator, after a season in which they finished in the bottom half of the league in every major team defense stat, and were #26 in points allowed.
Very true.
Of course, several teams tend to think they are.
The Saints probably think that very thing but they’ve already signed Carr. The 49ers absolutely know they are immediate contenders with a QB, but they’ve got their plan more or less set already.
And never put it past Stephen Ross to try to backstab Tua again and blame concussions or some such. Or Jim Irsay to con himself once again into thinking the Colts are a veteran QB away.
The Jets are pretty clearly serious about this:
I’m not sure if I can really wrap my head around how badly Zach Wilson fucked himself. The only missing piece in the puzzle for the Jets is a QB, and they drafted him 2nd overall two drafts ago. This should by all rights be his time to positively shine, and he just…ugh. It boggles the mind how badly he fucked up that seemingly perfect situation.
EDIT: I just read an article that points out Garrett Wilson won OROY with Zach Wilson as his quarterback, who had a grand total of 6 TD passes all year. Imagine if he had a real quarterback.
It’s the Ryan Leaf model – another #2 pick who quickly wore out his welcome.
The NFL has a tradition of high-potential QB busts in the draft. I expect a couple this year.
This raises a question I don’t know how to answer. Has there been a year in which every QB taken in the first round was a bust?
I don’t if you would call them full on busts, but Winston and Mariota were pretty disappointing after going 1 and 2 in 2015.
2013 only had one QB go in the first, EJ Manuel.
2007 had one of the biggest busts in Jamarcus Russell, with Brady Quinn being the only other first rounder.
2010 had just 2 QBs taken in the first round:
Sam Bradford was #1 overall. He was in the league for 8 years, starting 83 games with 103 TD passes. Not exactly a bust, but certainly not great.
Tim Tebow was #25 overall. He lasted just 3 years, starting 16 games and throwing 17 TD passes. A bust, to be sure.
He started out very promisingly; he was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2010, but was less effective in 2011, and then tore the same ACL in both 2013 and 2014. Other than becoming the emergency starter for the Vikings in '16, when Teddy Bridgewater got hurt in preseason, he never really lived up to that promising start.
So, I agree, not a bust, per se, but disappointing all the same.
There ought a be a term for a player who disappoints due to injuries (or other factors beyond their control) as opposed to one who falls well short of expectations while generally healthy.
JaMarcus Russell was a classic bust – someone who never had the drive to become a top QB. Bradford was just as disappointing to the team who drafted him, but it’s not like he chose to blow out his knee twice, so it seems somehow unfair to call him a bust and lump him in with Russell.
Sam Bradford also had the bad (or good in his perspective) luck of being drafted right before the rookie Wage Scale went in effect, so he got an absolutely massive contract. So you end up comparing him to Newton, Luck, and RGIII who were drafted in the next two drafts, getting paid far less.
I just hear them referred to as “injury-prone”.
Seattle has one of those guys… Rashaad Penny, taken in the first round a few years ago. He’s a dynamic and exciting running back who has yet to play a whole season. It’s hard to call him a bust, but you can’t count on him.
I’m thinking of former Bears WR Kevin White, who missed all but 2-3 games of his first three seasons after being drafted #7. Who knows if he ever would have lived up to his draft position if he hadn’t been hurt so much? I still see him called a bust, which is technically true but still seems somehow unfair.
Yeah, there are times when a player brings it on themselves. Malik McDowell is an example… He was drafted by Seattle in the 2nd round, but was in an ATV accident and never played for them. That was an injury-related bust, but it was due purely because of reckless behavior on his part. Then he spent nearly a year in prison after being pulled over while driving drunk and then getting into a fight with the cops.
4 years after he was initially drafted, he finally played for the NFL and has been a Cleveland Brown. (I guess for a team that has Deshaun Watson and Kareem Hunt such things are no big deal.)
But yeah, there are times when injuries and other off-the-field issues that keep a player from reaching their potential are not just bad luck.
I remember him. IIRC correctly, he was considered a much higher pick but had issues – legal? team disciplinary? can’t recall – that dropped him into the late 2nd round, and then utterly sabotaged his career as you describe. I didn’t realize he was actually a current player.
I’ll never understand why some guys just can’t get their shit together when everything they’ve worked for is right there in front of them.