Maybe I’m a lunatic, but I’m disappointed with this deal. Reddit, Twitter, ESPN and everywhere including here seem to be giving the Bears flowers for this deal. The opinion seems universal that the Bears just fleeced the Panthers. I don’t see it.
I think the best comp we have is that recent 49ers-Dolphins trade for Trey Lance. The 49ers traded up from 12 to 3. They sent the Phins a 1st rounder in the next two years and an additional 3rd rounder. So the headline is “three 1sts” to move up 9 spots.
The Bears got DJ Moore, 1 future first, a late 2nd rounder and a future 2nd rounder for just the 1st overall. Let’s see if we can balance the equation here:
Asset |
Bears-Panthers |
49ers-Dolphins |
Comparative Value |
Pick Swap |
1 → 9 |
3 → 12 |
Bears gave a lot more |
Pick |
1st (+1 Year) |
1st (+1 year) |
Equal |
Pick |
2nd (Pick 61) |
1st (+2 years) |
49ers got more |
Pick |
2nd (+2 years) |
3rd (+1 year) |
Equal? |
Player |
DJ Moore |
|
All Bears |
So basically, this implies that DJ Moore is worth the difference between the 1st and 3rd overall pick plus the difference between a deferred 1st and the 61st pick. I’m not convinced he is.
The WR market right now is completely wild, and the Bears are already getting clowned for overpaying for Chase Claypool. Last offseason the market for guys like Hollywood Brown, Christian Kirk, DaVante Adams, AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill was nutty, Hill got QB-level compensation in a trade. Brown and Brown both commanded 1st round picks. Kirk signed for $20M/year after never really distinguishing himself as a WR1. So based on that logic, DJ Moore is probably adding a lot of value to that deal.
But still, I think the Bears left stuff on the table here. The biggest issue is that they weren’t staying in the top 5. They aren’t going to have a chance a guys like Anderson or Carter drafting 9th. We don’t really know what Houston or Indy were thinking, but it’s hard to believe that neither team made an offer. The Raiders and Falcons, drafting immediately before the Panthers, both likely are in the market and could have been bidding. Was making the trade now, instead of closer to draft day, really the peak value?
The odds of them making 2 moves back in trades with QB needy teams is also likely dead with this move. If the rumors about Indy making a deal are true, then a similar deal with them minus DJ Moore leaves the Bears at 4 with another chance at a major trade haul. Or to draft Anderson at 4.
Footnote: I think it’s dumb when the media talks about trades like this as the Bears “getting 2 firsts, and 2 seconds”. They didn’t “get” two firsts, they swapped picks this year. They gave a first and got a worse first. That first you’re getting back isn’t really a new asset. When you compare this to deals like the Russell Wilson trade, that was actually “2 firsts and 2 seconds”.