I think the Chefs win as well, but I don’t think there’s any element of truth for professional football players being warm or cold weather. It’s not like Mahomes and Kelce spend their days off ice fishing.
Cold-weather teams do frequently practice outdoors in winter months. Also, as an anecdote: I was at the “Snow Bowl” game, Tampa Bay at Green Bay, in the middle of a blizzard in 1985. Contemporary news articles noted that the Buccaneers players were miserable, and eager to just get out of town, while the Packers acted like they were having fun in the snow; the Packers outgained the Bucs, 512 yards to 65, and won, 21-0.
I think training and conditioning are dramatically different between the NFL now and the NFL of 40 years ago. The Bucs were also an atrociously bad team that was probably miserable playing every Sunday, good weather or bad.
I’d be interested in seeing actual data for the modern game - there’s certainly value in the Chefs having access to frigid training conditions all week.
Previous results are certainly not indicative of future results, but…
In their past 10 games where the kickoff temperature was 40 degrees or below, the Dolphins have gone 0-10, and they’ve lost those 10 games by an average of 17 points.
and
Tua is 0-4 in any game where the kickoff temperature is below 45 degrees
The 49ers have crushed three NFC playoff teams (Cowboys, Eagles, & Bucs) and technically split against the Rams. The loss was backups vs backups in a meaningless week 18 game; the win would have been double digits except for a last second Rams field goal to bring it to seven points (thus beating the spread as if that mattered).
I’m not sure who to root for this weekend. If I had my pick of Divisional round opponents, I’d want Tampa Bay I suppose. That would require all the home teams winning, which seems unlikely. I’m not really scared of any of them, but if course anything can happen.
Cynthia Frelund on NFL Total Access posted her odds to win Super Bowl LVII:
19.4% — 49ers
18.5% — Ravens
14.3% — Bills
10.5% — Chiefs
9.9% — Cowboys
8.5% — Lions
4.8% — Buccaneers
4.4% — Browns
2.6% — Dolphins
2.6% — Eagles
2.2% — Rams
1.7% — Texans
0.4% — Packers
0.2% — Steelers
I don’t understand the 49ers at #1. It should be the Ravens. I don’t know how she calculates this, but thought I’d share it here, FWIW.
Added: oops, meant to post this in the Super Bowl picks thread.
For us Hawaiians, down in the 60s means beanie and ski parka (also shorts and slippahs) for Costco shopping.
Possibly due to a belief that the AFC field is stronger, and that the Ravens thus have a higher likelihood to suffer a pre-Super Bowl upset than the Niners do; note that the teams ranked 3 and 4 on that list are from the AFC.
Yeah, that’s almost certainly what it is.
Not the list of best teams in order but a list of the likelihood of making it through the tournament. That’s going to rely more heavily on the other teams, seeding, etc
I would totally root for a team wearing chef’s toques in place of helmets.
My prediction is that if the Ravens were able to make it past whatever gauntlet awaits them in the AFC and get to the Super Bowl with a healthy enough roster they’ll be heavily favored to win.
I’ll also note that the Ravens are 19-1 against NFC teams under Lamar Jackson. The only time Jackson has ever lost a game against an NFC team, if you can believe it, was in 2022 when the New York Giants beat them 24-20. Yes, the Giants. But for some reason, Jackson just dominates against the NFC. So I’d say that reinforces the idea that if they make it to the SB, they should be considered a favorite (again, barring injuries).
Stats like this are just weird. Sure, I can believe that a QB truly does play better at home, or in warm weather cities, or even against a rivalry team. But playing better against a conference? How would that work?
It might just be a really strange coincidence, but I’ve also heard speculation that the Ravens play an unusual style of offense due in large part to Jackson’s unique talents, and so they fare better against NFC teams that aren’t as familiar with them.
That’s a valid point. Obviously, the Ravens (and everybody else) play their divisional foes twice each year, and will almost certainly play other conference foes once or twice in a 3-year period. But teams from the other conference will see them only once every four years.
When I think of other quarterbacks who are similar to Jackson in various aspects, each analog I come up with also plays in the AFC.
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Great googly moogly.
New mascot.
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Weather report just keeps getting better for KC vs Dolphins. But the game won’t be rescheduled.
The National Weather Service projects a temperature of 3 degrees at kickoff with a wind chill of negative-17 degrees and wind gusts up to 28 mph. The figures will dip to zero degrees by 11 p.m., with a wind chill of negative-23 and wind gusts up to 31 mph.
So if the passing game isn’t a big factor, does that give the edge to the Chiefs with a more mobile QB, or the Dolphins with better RBs? Two years ago I’d have said Mahomes all the way, but I’m not sure that’s still true today.
ETA: also, WTF with not rescheduling the game for earlier in the day? Never mind the players, that’s into danger territory for fans.
That’s not really something they do. Especially in the playoffs. The Giants @ Packers game for the 2007 NFC Championship comes to mind, which was -3° F with a wind chill of -24° F and a kickoff time of 6:42 PM.
Interestingly, Eli didn’t really seem to notice the cold while Favre looked like he was freezing on the sideline, especially in the fourth quarter and in overtime. And isn’t that just what a frigid night game needs: Overtime!
I snickered.