NFL 2023: Wildcard Weekend

The Game Room
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Wildcard weekend is upon us. Two games on Saturday, three on Sunday, and the finale Monday night.

As always, all lines taken from DraftKings. Times listed are Central time.

Saturday:

Browns @ Texans (+2.5) 3:30 pm, NBC
Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4) 7:00 pm, Peacock

Sunday:

Steelers @ Bills (-10) 12:00 pm, CBS
Packers @ Cowboys (-7.5) 3:30 pm, FOX
Rams @ Lions (-3.5) 7:00 pm, NBC

Monday:

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+3) 7:15 pm, ESPN & ABC

There are several interesting story lines. The Lions/Rams game features the two quarterbacks who used to play for the other team. Tyreek Hill returns to Arrowhead. T.J. Watt is officially out against Buffalo, while Mason Rudolph remains the starter. January Joe Flacco has a chance to live up to his nickname.

How will the Fins perform in frigid KC? The forecast right now shows single-digit temps and strong winds on Saturday evening. (Hey, NFL, shouldn’t the night game have been in Houston?) Weather may also be a factor in Buffalo. The struggling Eagles, losers of 5 of their last 6, are favored on the road over the Bucs, who have won 5 of their last 6. Will Dan the Gambler try to outfox the officials again when the Lions face the Rams?

Meanwhile, the Ravens and Niners wait in the wings for whoever emerges as their opponents.

I like all the favorites to win…not necessarily to cover, but to win the games. How about you?

By the way, if you haven’t yet made your Super Bowl predictions, you can do so here:

21st Annual Super Bowl Early Picks Thread - The Game Room - Straight Dope Message Board

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Posting so I can get notified when theres new posts. Its been a weird season, no wins or losses would surprise me. Rooting against the Steelers because Steelers.

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Buh. :roll_eyes: For Eagles, I’m going with TB by 13. I don’t bet, but if you’d like an Eagles’ fan’s prediction…

My other bet would be that hours later, Mike Vrabel gets a phone call from Lurie.

I don’t think Siriani is any good without great coordinators. So they might give him another chance since he got to a SB. But we need new OC and DC completely!!

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I’m Lions fan and therefore, not familiar with the NFL or the playoffs much. Sounds like I’m kidding, but seriously, I hardly pay attention since we have Michigan(my university) football and plenty of other sports to follow.

This Wild Card round. Seems like a lot of teams are in this thing. Is it basically a first round playoff for everyone except the #1 ranked teams, who get to skip it?

When I hear Wild Card, I think of teams that just barely skid into the playoffs and have to earn their way into the full playoff rounds. There are like 12 teams in this Wild Card thing.

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Yes.

The way they do it has evolved over years. More teams get in now.

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The NFL has learned from the NHL.

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I’m thinking the Browns will cover without a problem, and I’m thinking the Chiefs will take the Dolphins because Mahomes is a winner.

I pick the Bills at home because of Josh Allen and the environment. I pick the Packers in the upset because Prescott never seems to win big playoff games. I’m liking the Rams because they’ve had a strong 2nd half compared to the Lions weaker one.

The Eagles have been struggling, but I still think they are too much for the Buccaneers.

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In the first round, #1 seed in each conference gets the bye. Before the latest round of playoff expansion (from 12 to 14 teams), it was the top 2 seeds in each conference getting byes. So, yeah, it’s a lot of teams (read more $ for owners) with 14/32 teams making the playoffs.

For the other games, highest seed takes on lowest seed, so 2 vs 7, 3 vs 6, and 4 vs 5. But note seeding always places the 4 division winners as the top 4 seeds so they automatically get at least 1 home playoff game. With all the playoff expansion, this often means the 4 vs 5 game will involve a game where the 5 seed has more wins than the 4 seed and has to play away.

In the subsequent rounds, opponents are determined by the remaining teams - highest vs lowest, 2nd highest vs 2nd lowest, and so on again, with the higher seed getting the home game. So this means the 7 seed will always play away games in the playoffs. Or a 2 seed will have home games until/unless a conference championship against a 1 seed.

So getting the #1 seed is important for two primary reasons - you get the first round bye and you have home field advantage until the Super Bowl.

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I thought it was kind of opposite, though I am not up to date. In the 1980’s, all but a very small amount of teams made the playoffs, rendering the majority of the regular season somewhat pointless. They re-arranged into conferences and so forth to make it more like the other sports.

What is the percent in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball that make the playoffs? I’m counting wild cards.

In football, it appears to be 44%.

I realize how bad the Lions really have been that they haven’t been to the playoffs much the last 30 years.

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Dubious distinction but it’s got to be them or the Browns as the most consistently disappointing over that span. They’re the only two teams of the 16 game era to have winless seasons

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I have this memory that the Browns moved cities and then won the Super Bowl in their new city. Did that happen? I am vaguely aware they made a new Browns after that.

Do I have any of that right?

I remember the Lions winless seasons and I was friends with Homer Elias, who played in the early 80’s in a year where they won 2 games(1979).

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Yes. The Browns moved to Baltimore in 1996 & became the Ravens, have won 2 Super Bowls and are a favorite to win this year as well. A few years later the Browns were reactivated in Cleveland. Being an NFL thing, it’s far more complicated than that, of course. Cleveland Browns relocation controversy - Wikipedia

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I haven’t bet sports this year at all but I’m thinking about putting a big bet on the Browns -2.5. And hey, if they lose I was going to be upset anyway so losing the bet wouldn’t hurt much more. I guess if they won by 1 or 2 points it might sting.

I hesitate a little because the Browns defense, for whatever reason, is a totally different unit away vs home. The whole team is far better at home. And I worry Stroud has some magic to him and he’ll play out of his mind.

Still, we’ve got playoff Flacco and almost 2 weeks of rest. I think the 2.5 line is too small. I may want to bet before it goes higher.

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I would almost agree but they are playing away so that’s a few points right there

Probably reflects the uncertainty. Could be close or could be a 10 point win for either team

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Playoff Flacco? His career passer rating in the playoffs is under 90 (88.6). His completion percentage is under 60 (56.6). Outside of his impressive 2013 Super Bowl winning run, he’s had a lot more bad games than good in the playoffs.

Maybe his magical run (if having at least one interception a game is magical) continues for another game. Maybe the defense can continue to cover up for his turnovers.

Maybe.

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Flacco has parlayed his Super Bowl win into a well-paid career. I’ll be pulling for him and the Browns this weekend. Oddly enough I’m pulling for three of the road teams: Browns, Dolphins, and Eagles.

On Sunday I’m pulling for all of the home teams. I’d love to see the Lions go deep into these playoffs.

SMH at the Eagles, for falling from the #1 team in the league to being in the road for the playoffs. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Thanks for setting up the games lineup, @Railer13 .

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MLB: 12/30, 40%

NHL: 16/32 50% (as said upthread, it once was 16/21 76%)

NBA: 20/30 67% (was 16/30 53% before they also added a WC round last year)

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I think the Browns are by far the strongest road team in this wild card weekend. I expect them to dust the Texans with little difficulty.

The Packers are playing with house money and they have little to lose and their receivers are speedy on indoors turf; I think they will give Dallas a good scare but the Cowboys will eventually prevail 28-26 or something like that.

The Chiefs should freeze out the warm-weather Dolphins easily.

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My hopium will point out that the Packers have never lost at JerryWorld.

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I mean, that’s still true. It’s the 6 wild card teams vs 6 divisional champs. Before the last playoff expansion it was just 4 wild card teams vs 4 divisional champs.