NFL 2023: Week 16

The Game Room
1

Last week’s results meant that the playoff picture became clearer at the top and bottom, but much more muddled in the middle. The Ravens, Niners, Cowboys, and Eagles have all clinched playoff spots; the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, and Lions can all clinch a spot with a win and assistance elsewhere. At the other end, the Jets, Patriots, Titans, Commanders, Panthers, and Cardinals are all eliminated, while the Raiders, Chargers, Giants, and Bears are all on life-support. In the AFC, five 8-6 teams are vying for two wild-card spots, while three of those teams are tied for the AFC South lead. In the NFC, five 7-7 teams are fighting for two WC spots, while two of those teams are tied for the lead in the NFC South. Lots of meaningful games this weekend. Plus, a couple of real clunkers.

All lines taken from DraftKings.

Thursday night:

Saints @ Rams (-4)

Saturday:

Bengals @ Steelers (+2)
Bills @ Chargers (+11.5)

Sunday early:

Packers @ Panthers (+5)
Lions @ Vikings (+3.5)
Browns @ Texans (+2.5)
Seahawks @ Titans (+2.5)
Colts @ Falcons (-1)
Commanders @ Jets (-3)

Sunday late:

Jaguars @ Bucs (-1)
Cowboys @ Dolphins (-1)
Cardinals @ Bears (-4)

Sunday night:

Patriots @ Broncos (-6.5)

Monday, Christmas Day:

Raiders @ Chiefs (-10)
Giants @ Eagles (-12)

Monday night:

Ravens @ 49ers (-5)

The Monday night game is intriguing, in that it features the two best teams in each conference. The oddsmakers clearly think that the Niners are the better team right now, and it’s hard to argue otherwise. In another interesting game, can the Cowboys finally win a road game over a good team? I’m somewhat surprised to see the Falcons favored over the Colts, although home field certainly plays a part in that line. The same might be said about the Bucs being favored over the Jags, although the status of Trevor Lawrence is still unknown.

As @muldoonthief pointed out in last week’s thread, the Eagles, despite a 3-game losing streak, still hold the tiebreaker over the Boys, should both teams win their remaining three games.

What say you? Got any insider bets? What games will you be closely following? Will anybody watch the Jets/Commanders or Bears/Cardinals games?

2

Continuing the Eagles/Cowboys discussion from the Week 15 thread, the tiebreak will come down the strength of victory stat, as this is the fifth tiebreak in the NFL.

Strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.

Assuming both teams win out:

Both teams beat each other (obviously), and both teams swept the Giants and Commanders. So those six games can be left out of the equation.

Cowboys wins would include victories over the Jets, Pats, Chargers, Rams, Panthers, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Lions.

Eagles wins would include victories over the Pats, Vikings, Bucs, Rams, Dolphins, Chiefs, Bills, and Cardinals.

The common victories are over the Pats, Rams, and Dolphins. Those games can also be left out of the calculations.

Cowboys wins would then be Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Seahawks, and Lions.

Eagles wins would then be Vikings, Bucs, Chiefs, Bills, and Cardinals.

Three of those Cowboys wins would be over teams who will definitely finish with losing records, while only one Eagles win would be over one such team. I think in any scenario, the Eagles win the tiebreaker.

3

Shakes fist: I was doing all the same calculations, but I’ve got numbers too. Their victories over each other, and teams they both beat, are meaningless to the VoS tiebreaker, because they just subtract out.

If they both win out, here’s the unique victories for each team, with their current records:

Eagles: Current SoV including upcoming Cardinals victory: 34-36

Bucs 7-7
Vikings 7-7
Chiefs 9-5
Bills 8-6
Cardinals 3-11

Cowboys: Current SoV including upcoming Dolphins victory: 29-41

Jets 5-9
Chargers 5-9
Panthers 2-12
Seahawks 7-7
Lions 10-4

So the 5 Cowboys unique wins would have to get 5 more victories over the next 3 weeks than the Eagles unique wins for the SoV to become a tie, 6 or more for it to favor the Cowboys. That seems really unlikely, since the Jets & Panthers are already eliminated, and the Chargers are hanging on by a thread, while 4 of the Eagles unique wins are deep in the playoff/seeding hunt. But it is still mathematically possible for both teams to win out, and the Cowboys to overtake the Eagles.

4

You and I obviously have time to do important shit like this!

5

I’m debugging a build error that takes 5-10 minutes to reproduce, not enough time to start other work, but plenty of time to goof around with W-L stats.

6

When/if they make a highlight film of this year, one of the lines will be: “I see dead quarterbacks.”

Brady got a bunch of flak for hitting on the quality of play but I’ve come more towards his opinion. Colleges have gone to simpler offensives with running QBs and spread fields (exciting blowouts for the boosters). Guys come out sooner (younger - less physically and mentally developed). Practices at the pro level have been curtailed ostensibly to reduce injuries (may actually contribute? - your thoughts). No coaching contact in the off season (this would help physically and get the younger guys attuned to the new systems).

Back to the games. Which Lions team shows up? Who ever gets a quick start will win this one. I favor the Lions, they can almost taste the playoffs.

Flacco for MVP? Can Stroud make the game? I have questions.

Seahawks - upset, crystal ball shows emotional letdown and an away game. Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the league but he’s handicapped by marginal talent.

Colts - Falcons, can’t tell the QBs without a program. Neither team has much of an identity. Mediocrity is a form of parity.

Commanders - Jets. Can the ticket prices be less than $0.45? (see also Cards - Bears).

Why haven’t they flexed the Patriots out of Sunday night again (in the contract?)? The Cowboys - Dolphins and Jags - Bucs would be better choices.

Two ugly games Christmas Day (I’ll be napping) but I’ll get up for the night game.

7

As I alluded to in the other thread, I think that this is a flawed statistic.

Suppose two teams played the exact same opponents and lost once but to a different team. One team lost to a team that lost all of their other games and one team lost to a team who won all of their other games. The first team would have a better strength of victory record.

8

The Sunday night game is on Christmas Eve, so maybe their thinking no one’s going to be watching anyway?

9

We long-suffering Lions fans know not to get our hopes up, even at this point. There’s still an 11 game scenario in which the Lions don’t make the playoffs at all.

Step one of this scenario, the Seahawks beating the Eagles, already happened on Monday.

10

Whoa! Like watching dominos fall or Chinese water torture.

11

ALL of the following has to happen for the Bears to make the playoffs:

Week 16:

Rams defeat Saints
Colts defeat Falcons
Titans defeat Seahawks
Lions defeat Vikings
Packers defeat Panthers
Eagles defeat Giants
Ravens defeat 49ers
Bears defeat Cardinals

Week 17

Lions defeat Cowboys
Giants defeat Rams
Buccaneers defeat Saints
Steelers defeat Seahawks
Vikings defeat Packers
Bears defeat Falcons

Week 18

Lions defeat Vikings
Falcons defeat Saints
49ers defeat Rams
Bears defeat Packers
12

If you take out the Lions’ games, there are really only two unlikely outcomes in that list: Seahawks beating the Eagles, and Rams beating the 49ers.

One of those already happened. The second could easily happen if the Niners have the #1 seed locked up and rest their starters.

I’m not too worried, because the Lions should be able to pull out at least one of their games, and it’s still a lot of other games that must go exactly right. But I’m a Lions fan, so I am a little worried.

13

Now do the Chargers :slight_smile:

14

But you’re glossing over the fact that the first team beat a really good team, that the second team could not. There’s an argument to be made that’s more the measure of which team is better.

15

Fair point.

16

I tried, but I couldn’t understand the mess that I was looking at on the site. I do know that their chances are LESS than one percent.

17

Or you could follow the dictum of DiCaprio in “The Wolf of Wall Street” - “I never ask my clients to judge me on my winners, I ask them to judge me on my losers, because I have so few.”

18

[Chandler Bing voice]
Have you seen the Lions play their division rivals? Could they be much worse inter-division? :smile:
[/Chandler Bing voice]

Yes, the Lions managed to split with the Bears and Packers, but the only convincing Lions divisional victory, against the Packers Sept. 28, was early on when the Packers were kind of a shambles.

Two Vikings games with a 10-4 Cowboys matchup sandwich makes me nervous :fearful:

19

I just learned that the Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos, who all were in the original AFL western division, all have 15 divisional titles.

The Chiefs will be looking to break the four-way tie with two more wins this season. It will be their 8th consecutive divisional crown.

20

So you are saying that there’s a chance?