NFL 2024-25: Week 18

The Game Room
1

In the AFC, the Chiefs locked up the top seed with a convincing victory over the Steelers, and the Bills pummeled the Jets to clinch the second seed. The Ravens easily handled the Texans, and now need to defeat Cleveland to win the division and the #3 seed. The Chargers clinched a wild-card spot, so 6 of the 7 playoff teams have been decided. Because of the Broncos loss to Cincinnati, the Bengals and Fins both stayed alive for the last wild card.

If Denver beats the Chiefs, Denver is a wild-card team. If Denver loses and Miami wins, Miami gets the slot. If both Denver and Miami lose and the Bengals win, Cincy is the last wild card team. If all three lose, Denver is in the playoffs.

In the playoffs: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Chargers
Still alive: Broncos, Bengals, Dolphins
All other teams are eliminated.

In the NFC, the Rams barely hung on to beat the Cardinals and, by virtue of a strength of victory tiebreaker, won the West over the Seahawks. The Eagles, down to their 3rd-string quarterback, still easily manhandled the Cowboys and won the East and the #2 seed. Tampa Bay, behind 5 TD passes from Baker Mayfield, defeated the Panthers and now has a 1-game lead over Atlanta, who lost an overtime heartbreaker to Washington, who earned a ticket to the playoffs. Minnesota hung on to defeat the Pack and the Lions beat the Niners; those two teams remain tied for the top spot in the conference.

The Vikings and Lions will meet in Detroit, with the winner claiming the #1 seed and playoff bye; the loser will fall to the #5 seed and will likely play all postseason games on the road. Tampa Bay needs to defeat the Saints to win the division; if the Bucs lose, the Falcons can win the division by beating the Panthers.

In the playoffs: Eagles, Commanders, Vikings, Lions, Packers, Rams
Still alive: Buccaneers, Falcons
All other teams are eliminated.

This week’s games. All spreads taken from ESPNBet on Tuesday, December 31 at 9:15 am CT.

Saturday:
Browns @ Ravens (-18)

Saturday night:
Bengals @ Steelers (+1.5)

Sunday early:
Panthers @ Falcons (-8.5)
Commanders @ Cowboys (+3.5)
Bears @ Packers (-8.5)
Texans @ Titans (-1)
Jaguars @ Colts (-5)
Bills @ Patriots (+3)
Giants @ Eagles (-3)
Saints @ Buccaneers (-13)

Sunday late:
Chiefs @ Broncos (-9.5)
Chargers @ Raiders (+6)
Seahawks @ Rams (+3)
Dolphins @ Jets (+1)
49ers @ Cardinals (-3)

Sunday night:
Vikings @ Lions (-3)

2

With Seattle officially eliminated due (in large part) to the flukiest of interceptions in the Arizona-LA game (seriously, the ball bounced off a receiver’s helmet in the end zone with seconds left then popped up and was grabbed by a defender), I am a Lions fan for the postseason.

Watching them beat the 49ers was pretty damn fun. I hope they go all the way.

3

All I’m hoping is that one team with no Lombardis will get their first Lombardi.

Lions, Vikings, Texans, Bills, Chargers - all good.

Rooting hard against Chiefs, Steelers, and Eagles, etc.

Lions vs. Bills or Bills vs Vikings would be particularly good TV to watch.

4

I hope the NFL changes this soon; it’s ridiculous that a team as good as Detroit would have to play on the road vs. say the Bucs, a team which would have 4-5 fewer wins. Divisions are arbitrarily arranged to begin with, tho I guess doing straight seeds strictly according to record wouldn’t look as elegant, with just one solid slab from 1-7. The NFL has nobody to blame but themselves when they allowed so many wild card teams into the postseason in the first place, if they are so worried about diminishing the stature of the divisional champs.

5

The NFL has always placed a certain premium on winning your division, even if it’s a weak division. It’s been that way for 55 seasons, and I don’t see it changing.

This year, it’s particularly noticeable, because we’re going to have a 14-win team that doesn’t win their division, but we’ve had several cases in the last decade or so where a sub-.500 team won their division, which did still mean that they hosted a playoff game against a team with a much better record:

  • 2020: Washington (7-9) won the NFC East, and hosted a playoff game against Tampa Bay (11-5), which the Bucs won
  • 2014: Carolina (7-8-1) won the NFC South, and hosted Arizona (11-5); the Panthers won that game
  • 2010: Seattle (7-9) won the NFC West, and hosted New Orleans (11-5); the Seahawks won

Personally, I think that home-field advantage isn’t always a big advantage, and the Lions or Vikings should still be able to smoke the Bucs or Falcons, even if they have to go on the road to do so.

6

The Lions have 2 losses at home and are undefeated on the road this season.

Maybe they should tank the Vikings game on purpose.

7

One would think so, although Tampa Bay is playing their best ball of the season right now, having won 5 of their last 6. Granted, against less than stellar competition, but still a decent team at this point.

8

The Eagles technically have nothing to play for against the Giants on Sunday, as they are already locked into the #2 seed, so the big question is to what extent they will play Saquon Barkley, to give him a shot at breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record (Barkley is currently 100 yards behind Dickerson).

Coach Nick Sirianni says that he has not yet decided on this, but will be making a decision based on feedback from the players as well as team management and ownership. Personally, I suspect that they’ll let Saquon play.

9

And weirdly Seattle has a much better road record as well; 3-6 at home, and 6-1 on the road.

I say it’s weird because traditionally they’ve had one of the biggest home field advantages for years because they have one of the loudest stadiums (I think second only to Arrowhead), yet for whatever reason they’re much better away this year. I literally have no idea why.

It’s not because their road games are easier. They lost to the goddamn Giants at home.

10

They actually made the Giants look good in that loss!

In fairness, that was before star LT Andrew Thomas went down for the season – the following week, actually – which immediately threw the Giants’ OL into disarray.

11

:face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

(To be fair, what you say is true.)

They also had at that time one of, if not the best past rush in all of the NFL (before it got much worse later). The Seahawks got the Giants at their peak seemingly. And for some reason Daniel Jones played a lot better than usual, maybe one of his best career games.

At the same time, they still should have won that game. Seattle just couldn’t figure things out at that time. It’s still a bit hard to understand as a fan and I’ve listened to analysts struggle to make sense of it.

I still say they had a home field disadvantage for some reason.

:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

12

And, I was incorrect. Sirianni now indicates that Barkley, among other starters, will be sitting out the finale.

13

This was posted in the Week 17 thread by @kenobi_65 . I’m quoting it here to hopefully move the discussion here.

14

Thank you! I goofed there.

15

Not a problem! Good info, which I hadn’t heard before your post.

16

Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander, who is a two-time second-team All Pro, but has been dealing with injuries for the past two seasons, had surgery on his right knee yesterday, to address an injury to his posterior cruciate ligament. The Packers are saying that he could, in theory, be able to come back to play as soon as the Super Bowl, but as the likely #7 seed in a stacked NFC (with three 14+ win teams above them), getting that far in the playoffs is a longshot for them.

Alexander suffered the knee injury in late October, and has only played on ten snaps since then (in a November game).

17

Pro Bowl rosters announced. There are 9 Ravens and 7 Lions, and no Mahomes. Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers, and Jared Verse are the only rookies selected. The Dolphins, Jets, Titans, and Saints are not represented.

AFC roster

Quarterback: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills; Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals; Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Running back: Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens; Joe Mixon, Houston Texans; Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Fullback: Patrick Ricard, Baltimore Ravens

Wide receiver: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals; Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns; Nico Collins, Houston Texans; Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Tight end: Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders; Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Offensive tackle: Dion Dawkins, Buffalo Bills; Laremy Tunsil, Houston Texans; Rashawn Slater, Los Angeles Chargers

Offensive guard: Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis Colts; Joe Thuney, Kansas City Chiefs; Trey Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Center: Creed Humphrey, Kansas City Chiefs; Tyler Linderbaum, Baltimore Ravens

Defensive end: Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns; Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals; Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders

Interior linemen: Cameron Heyward, Pittsburgh Steelers; Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs; Nnamdi Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens

Outside linebacker: Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos; T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers; Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers

Inside/middle linebacker: Roquan Smith, Baltimore Ravens; Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis Colts

Cornerback: Derek Stingley Jr., Houston Texans; Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos; Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens; Denzel Ward, Cleveland Browns

Free safety: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh Steelers

Strong safety: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens; Derwin James, Los Angeles Chargers

Long snapper: Ross Matiscik, Jacksonville Jaguars

Punter: Logan Cooke, Jacksonville Jaguars

Placekicker: Chris Boswell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Return specialist: Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos

Special teamer: Brenden Schooler, New England Patriots

NFC roster

Quarterback: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions; Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders; Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Running back: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles; Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions; Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Fullback: Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 49ers

Wide receiver: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings; Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions; CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys; Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

Tight end: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers; Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

Offensive tackle: Lane Johnson, Philadelphia Eagles; Penei Sewell, Detroit Lions; Tristan Wirfs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Offensive guard: Landon Dickerson, Philadelphia Eagles; Tyler Smith, Dallas Cowboys; Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta Falcons

Center: Frank Ragnow, Detroit Lions; Cam Jurgens, Philadelphia Eagles

Defensive end: Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers; Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys; Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers

Interior linemen: Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles; Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants; Vita Vea, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Outside linebacker: Jonathan Greenard, Minnesota Vikings; Andrew Van Ginkel, Minnesota Vikings; Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams

Inside/middle linebacker: Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers; Zack Baun, Philadelphia Eagles

Cornerback: Jaylen Johnson, Chicago Bears; Byron Murphy, Minnesota Vikings; Jaycee Horn, Carolina Panthers; Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks

Free safety: Xavier McKinney, Green Bay Packers

Strong safety: Budda Baker, Arizona Cardinals, Brian Branch, Detroit Lions

Long snapper: Andrew DePaola, Minnesota Vikings

Punter: Jack Fox, Detroit Lions

Placekicker: Brandon Aubrey, Dallas Cowboys

Return specialist: KaVontae Turpin, Dallas Cowboys

Special teamer: KhaDarel Hodge, Atlanta Falcons

18

I’m honestly surprised that the Colts are represented three times.

19

The Jalen Hurts concussion is bugging me and plenty other Eagles’ fans. He would be sat this last week regardless of health. But the fact that he hasn’t practiced… I wonder if the man can even jog without dizziness at this point. And we may have a Saturday playoff game to start. Go, MCKEE!!

20

Nominal Browns fan, but I still had to chuckle at the line today, Ravens -20. Is that the largest line in recent memory?