elf6c, what I said above…The steelers historically have not been afraid to take the best available athlete, even if it doens’t fall in line with their needs. I think they have about 2 people they are looking at for safety (Troy Polamalu and Julian Battle). If they are both gone, there’s no telling what the Steelers will do.
Believe it or not, I think that if they can get a good safety in there, Scott and Washington (their current CBs) can still play a good game. They just suffered from bad peers last year.
Also, I’ve heard the same thing from Baltimore not wanting Boller at the ten spot.
I tabbed Kwame Harris, because he was essentially the best player not taken when I got to 19/20. I was pretty sure they’d take a S or CB. Trufant and Newman will both be gone, and no other CB’s are really worth a first round pick, with the exception of Woolfolk who is a project pick much like McGahee.
I could see Doss and EJ Henderson (LB), who after Boss Bailey is the next best available LB, but in the mock I did he was gone by 19. But that’s essentially why I chose Harris.
Besides, OL is like CB, you can never have too many.
I’m curious… after Charles Rogers at 2 and probably Andre Johnson at 3, what other WR’s will be picked? I only see one other as a 1st round possibility. I hardly see 2 WR’s as a “run” on WR’s. There will likely be two CB’s and two DT’s as well, is that a run in those positions?
As far as Dorsey, everybody is down on Dorsey. But IMO, you can’t overlook one thing. He won a lot. I mean, its not like those guys had a ghost back there throwing the ball. Somebody will take a flyer on him. But probably on the 2nd day… 5-7th rds.
QB is interesting, there’s a lot of mid-level guys (Kingsbury, Banks, Simms, Gesser, Grossman, Wallace off the top of my head). It’ll be interesting to see how they play out.
I think Willis McGahee is by far the best story of the draft. It’s a gamble that could pay off huge, or fall flat. That said, I don’t see him as a first round gamble. First round is for starters, not development. His knee is just too banged up to garner first round attention. He’s an awesome runner that had an awesome line in front of him, so some of the credit has to go to his line.
The Vikings might just pack up and leave if a defender isn’t chosen, but given the “Take the best player” mantra all the teams take, a WR like Andre Johnson would be tempting. Suggs, Kennedy, or Robertson are the 3 names I hope to see available once the 7th comes around.
I look for
[ul][li]McGahee to go to the Pats with their second pick. No way he lasts until round 2. Even if the Pats chicken out, he’ll never get past the Raiders.[/li][li]I think the Eagles go for either ran edge rusher or a stud MLB, but they might have to trade up to get either. If they sit in place they might still go DE, but might also look at TE. THey need WR help, but I don’t see them spending another 1st rounder on it this year.[/li][li]The Saints to package 2 picks to move up and grab one of the top 2 CBs (which one depends on how much people are scared by Newman’s shoulder. Teams who pass on him because of this will be making a mistake, IMO.)[/li]As for Dorsey: 7[sup]th[/sup] round or a preferred free agent. Why? Gino Toretta.[/ul]
Oh, I also think that Rogers will outperform Johnson by a mile in year 1, but by year 3 things will have eened out a bit. Probably. Johnson might turn out ot be this draft’s Peter Warrick, though for just about the opposite reason. Warrick was a natural receiver and open field runner who simply lacks the speed to separate or the strength to work in NFL traffic. Johnson has speed and strength to spare but is still a long way from being a natural receiver. I forsee a tough first year for him, though in the right place he might develop into a stud in a few years. He would be better off going to Detroit than Houston, but I don’t think he will be so lucky.
McGahee in the first round seems like a huge mistake to me (though it seems to be accepted wisdom that he’ll go in the first anyway). Can anyone name a RB whose knee has bent like that, and then gone on to be a pro-bowler (let alone a durable pro-bowler)? If so, he’d be on a real short list.
The Eagles should be able to get someone like Nebraska’s Kelsay at DE with #30 (29?). Probably have to trade up if they want Henderson at MLB, though.
It’s an exceptionally deep draft at DL, which is what the Giants need, but that won’t matter so much if 8 (or more) of the first 24 picks are Ends or Tackles, as is frequently predicted. I’d actually like to see them trade up a bit to make sure they get someone worthwhile (unless other teams count on being able to get quality in the second round, and the DLs start slipping). Also wouldn’t mind seeing them trade up and take Boss Bailey at OLB (unless they know something Short and Jones, their current OLBs, that I don’t).
Jamal Lewis and Edge both had similar injuries 2 years ago. Lewis had an excellent year last year, though he didn’t make the pro bowl in an AFC that’s overflowing with great backs. Edge had a rougher recovery, but I expect him to be back strong again this year.
Garrison Hearst cam back from MCL surgery several years before he made his latest comeback from ankle surgery. The man has a serious aptitude for rehab.
On the other side of the ball you have Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson.
Thing is, this draft is seriously short of top flight RBs. Somebody is going to take a flyer on McGahee because there isn’t another back out there that doesn’t have a red flag all their own. Come draft day, fear rules a GMs last seconds before submitting that 1[sup]st[/sup] round pick. Nobody wants to be paying millions to the latest Penn State tacking dummy while McGahee becomes stud in 2004. I’m not saying that it’s the right move to make, but some GM will do it. If nothing else, it gives them a 1 year reprieve from the “he’s a bust” charges.
Talk about a million dollar bullet. Well, a negative one million dollar bullet in this case. And that’s just the signing bonus he’ll be missing out on because of the drop in ranking.
With each pick, a team has the gamble “Can this pick make it in the NFL?” The numbers of promising picks who have fallen flat are legion. So just picking a healthy player is a huge gamble. I just can’t see McGahee going in the first. Yes I do understand that this isn’t an awesome back class, but fear rules a GMs pick, and McGahee could be a hindsight is 20/20 steal in the second, or a hindsight is 20/20 collasal dud in the first. I think GMs aren’t willing to be the one who picked the collosal dud. Nobody wants to look like Denny Green did after Dimitrius Underwood went bipolar. Nobody.
Man, it’s good to be around some people making some SERIOUS football talk. Hate to play you guys in fantasy.
Anyway, it looks like the Saints reeled in Tebucky Jones, which should satisfy things at safety. If there’s not a good CB pick in the first round, I’m thinking they’ll go LB or DT. It wouldn’t surprise me if they decided to go with the CBs they have, honestly.
No way! For all the talk about McGahee and teams picking him early, it won’t happen. 3rd Round… earliest will be late 2nd round. Any team would be nuts to waste (yes, waste) a 1st round pick on an injured RB. And how many teams really need an RB anyway… 1st round is where you get your ‘need’ players.
The steal of this draft will be SUGGS, who will fall because of his ‘bad’ combine performance. He’ll show how great he is on the field, and when it’ll be a steal for the team that picks him within picks 12-20 (or later).
Boller is not going to be a great 1st round pick, IMO. He’s got the tools, but he isn’t going to be the ‘savior’. He’ll be above average, but so is Aaron Brooks (who wasn’t a 1st rounder, IIRC).
What do you guys will think the Browns will do? I have a good idea of where our weaknesses are, but I’m not familiar with what players are up to draft.
Woah. McGahee is not going to last past the top of the second round, never mind the thrid. Prior to his knee injury, he was slotted for a top 3 pick. His rehab is going well, and this year’s crop of RB’s is weak in first round talent (but rich in third round talent-- go figure).
Suggs won’t be playing tomato can Tackles anymore, so his repeated exhibited lack of speed and burst are legitimately dropping him. At 10-15 he is a great value. He just isn’t a top-five pick anymore. I think the first 2 DT’s have much bigger upsides.
Horrible workouts and combine performance, product of the system. Someone may use a 7th on him.
I have up to 3 WR’s going in the first ten, and no less then 2. That is alot of WR’s in my book. DT is very deep in first round talent, unlike WR and CB, which creates more pressure on those looking for first round talent at those positions, especially at WR. If by pick #4, 2 of the 3 first round talent WR’s are gone, that creates a lot of pressure on those needing a good WR.
Personally, I always lean towards the elite CB’s and OT’s in the upper end of the first round, as they tend to be measurably better then the lower round talent at those positions (on average and IMHO, of course). Newman’s the gem in my eye (assuming reports his shoulder is fine are true).
Re: the Browns…
I’m going on a guy who is on an email list that I am on-- I’ve been reading him for 4 seasons now, and I love his take on the draft every year.
Dave Reid is the one who wrote this.
And Here’s what he has to say about the players in question:
And here I was hoping and praying that he’d fall to 7. You may be thinking Lee Suggs, a late announcer to the draft. As a RB, he may go late into the 1st, soley due to the lack of quality backs in the draft. The DE Terrell Suggs will not fall to twelve. The folks of Arizona would rise up in protest if the Cardinals passed on the local favorite. UNLESS (it’s the draft, I’m allowed a caviat ) there is a slew of trades for teams looking to boost their offense (that could be highly likely, there’s a lot of defense in this draft, but it’s not much for Offense).
I agree with elf6c. McGahee goes early in the 2nd. No way he’ll drop to 3rd.
So Cinci takes Palmer… then you get 2 WR’s. That only leaves one more 1st round quality WR in Kelley Washington. No way he goes before at least 15. Before him there’s Jordan Gross/Byron Leftwich/Terrance Newman/Marcus Trufant/DeWayne Robertson/Kevin Williams/Terrell Suggs/Johnathon Sullivan/Jimmy Kennedy and Boss Bailey… (At least) That is 2 CB’s and 4 DT’s before another WR would even likely be considered.
You already know that Detroit and Houston are not likely to trade out of their spots. Also, picking late, you already know that you’re not going to get the top player ANY position without trading up. Even knowing that a couple of positions that traditionally fall such as S or OG will probably fall again. So I don’t believe that they have as much pressure as you think. Teams needing a good WR likely also need something else, and will have to focus on that.
I guess my point is, I don’t see more than 2 taken in the top 10, or more than 3 in the first round. And even with 2 taken in the top 10, I hardly see it as a “run on WR’s” as you’re likely gonna get 2 CB’s, 2QB’s and possibly 2-3 DT’s taken as well. Too me all the DT’s is what is creating the problems. All the top teams are going to end up taking all the stinkin’ DT’s, because those are the top players. The top DT’s will be gone by 15, leaving the 2nd tier of DT’s. (Ty Warren/William Joseph)
It’s funny that McGahee has so many opinions about him. I think GM’s will think that he was a clear top 10 pick before. He had a good workout today (I was assuming that he would). Somebody is going to take a 1st round risk… (I picked the Eagles because again, they don’t REALLY NEED anybody that bad). If it doesn’t work out, everybody knows it was a risk, if it does you’re a genius.
) there is a slew of trades for teams looking to boost their offense (that could be highly likely, there’s a lot of defense in this draft, but it’s not much for Offense).