NFL: Most Surprising Team of the Regular Season

In My Humble Opinion
1

Good or Bad.

I think ultimately there are 4 choices –

A. Philadelphia (6-10) not only missing the Playoffs but having a very losing season.
B. Cincinnati finishing 10-6 and winning the AFC North.
C. The Redskins going 10-6 and winning a Wild Card.
D. The Bears at 11-5 winning the NFC North, snagging the 2nd seed in the NFC.

Maybe you have others – that is fine. I submit that these 4 sources kind of show where group think, popular opinion and the NFL-cognoscenti were on these teams before the season:

Dr. Z predicted the Bears at 3-13, Redskins at 4-12, and he had the Bengals at 7-9. He predicted that the would be Eagles 10-6 Division winners and in the NFC Championship game.

In his preseason preview, Peter King didn’t usually predict wins- just Divisional finish order. Although he had the Redskins last in the NFC East behind the Giants & you could deduce 6 wins or less as he guessed 7 worst case for the G-men

On Chicago he said he liked the D and could see them finishing the Division no.2 if Orton played well but did not predict playoffs. He called the Eagles “the deepest Team of our time“ while noting that a “QB injury would be a killer”. Still, he had the Eagles in the NFC Championship game. He had the Bengals no. 3 in the AFC East and again no playoffs

12 ESPN Experts folks picked. 0 had the Bears in the Playoffs. 1 (Joe Thiesman) Predicted a Redskin Wildcard. 14 had the Eagles winning the NFC East, 100% had them in the playoffs and 3 (21%) had them as the Superbowl Champs. 0 had Bengals as Division Champs, 2 had them in the Wildcard

5 others in USA Today picked various Division winners. All had the Eagles winning the NFC East and virtually all had them in some kind of a Superbowl/NFC Championship combo. None of the predicted the Redskins or Bears winning Divisions and only 1 had the Bengals

DISCUSSION:

If Philly had finished with a losing record without losing McNabb I’d probably go here even though I hate being negative on someone else’s team – they were an anointed top 3 NFL team (almost) no matter where you looked and didn’t even finish top 3 in the NFC East …. The Eagles were considered a shoo in virtually everywhere for double digit wins and ended up with double digit losses … But ultimately they lost McNabb early for all intents and purposes, and if you told me Sept 1st that this was going to happen (watching TO dance that tightrope all offseason) I would have seriously doubted you and been supercilious – but I wouldn’t have bet the rent you were crazy

I saw Marvin Lewis in Washington. He worked miracles here and in Baltimore. He was a very, very good coach and when folks were telling him not to take the Bengals job because he would only get 1 chance as an African American Head Coach and he couldn’t succeed there – I sent him an Email at Redskins park – I don’t know that I have ever done that before –– but I said he was a winner and would be a winner anywhere – just because of that I have to say I, personally, am really not all that surprised by the Bengals. He is really good. Plus most people thought the Bengals were roughly a .500 team and the jump from .500 to Division winner is as big as, I don’t know, say
**
Consensus Top 5 Draft Picker to** Playoff team like either the Redskins or Da Bears:

Ultimately, because I am a huge Redskins fan and I am totally 100% in the Tank for them – I can’t pick them as the biggest surprise. I know the team pretty well and I know from painful experience my outlook on them is marred with faulty overoptimistic judgment. But I hoped (and secretly believed with all my heart) that they were a wildcard 10-6 Team. I even said it here. So I can’t pretend this is the biggest surprise to me (though the way they did it: with Defense falling back to 8th and Brunell and Moss catching fire to the extent they have – well, I AM surprised by that). Maybe I could lie to you/me & pick them if they had won the Division ….

So I have to say that IMHO the Bears were the biggest surprise Team this regular season – that they did it with that dominant Defense isn’t a season TOP OF THE LIST surprise to me – but that the offense has clicked to the extent it has and lead to enough wins for a great season … Of all 4 scenarios you could have laid before me Sept.1st the biggest surprise to me, the one I would have called BS the loudest at and been surest I was right, would be the Bears going 11-5, winning the Division and snagging the no. 2 seed in the NFC

2

Hey, the Bears do occasionally play lights out, as they did in 2001.

I called the Chargers season back in August, so no surprise on that one. They played a creampuff schedule last year and were one and done in the playoffs. This year, against a real schedule, they folded like a cheap suit.

The Eagles were living on borrowed time, anyway. Their little trick of not paying anybody any money was cute and all, but parity waits for no team. (The Pats didn’t even make the playoffs in 2002.)

The Packers were pretty surprising, but were also playing on borrowed time.

I’d say the Jets were the most surprising. They were two makeable shanked kicks away from the AFC Championship game against a team they’d played close in both regular season meetings. This year? Even before injuries set in, they got humiliated by the Chiefs on opening day. Their fall from grace was abrupt and brutal, and they now look to be mired in a mess of rebuilding that could take three or more years to sort out.

3

The Bengals were 11-5, not 10-6.

Were they really that much of a surprise? I think everyone expected improvement over last year’s 8-8, didn’t they?

4

I’m not stalking you, Ellis. You’re just in every thread I want to post in!

Indy was pretty surprising to me. Sure, we all knew they had a high powered offense, but their defense was leaving them out in the cold in important games. This year, they actually have a defense! How di that happen?

Green Bay. No. I didn’t think they’d win the North, but I thought a wildcard wasn’t outside the realm of probability. Damn, they stunk it up. And not just ecause of the injury demons, either.

Arizona. Wow. If only they had a decent RB and a consistant defense. Those guys could cause some serious havoc with just a few adjustments.

Houston. Luved ya Blue! Now you’re as sure an ass kickin as the Bucs were in their expansion years. Yeah, I know. They are no relation at all to the old columbia blue attired Oilers. Just a figure of speech.

Chicago. Win a division on the strength of defense and special teams and the suckiness of everyone else in your division? Hey, if you can do it, go for it!

Seattle. Where the hell was that passing game last year?

Dallas. Tuna, you suck. Being an asshole won’t guarantee wins. I hope you get TO next year.

Tampa Bay. Where’s that old expansion team? Long gone (Superbowl XXXVII anyone?) Solid D. Good running game. Serious contenders any week they’re on the field. They kind of snuck up on me this year.

5

IMHO, two of the biggest factors in how a team does during the regular season are:

  1. QB skill and health
  2. Schedule

Given that, a really great defense will also cover a lot of ills, and a bad coaching staff will make the problems you have that much more obvious. The three biggest surprises, IMO, were how bad the Jets ended up being, and how good the Redskins and Bears ended up being. The Jets thing had to do with how much worse their QB situation ended up being than we all thought; the Redskins, how much better Brunell ended up being than we all expected; and the Bears, how much better that defense and coaching staff was than we all (except Omni, maybe! :)) thought. The Jets had a relatively difficult schedule and the Bears had one that was relatively less so - those two situations were exacerbated by the strength of the teams they had to play, though eventually the Jets showed us they could lose to anyone and the Bears showed us that they can beat most teams on any given day.

Cinci, Indy, Seattle, Philly… those were all at least somewhat precitable going into the season - we knew Palmer would probably keep getting better, we knew T.O. might explode at any given time, we knew Peyton and Hasselbeck were QBs that you’d be happy with on your team, and we knew the schedules for all involved. I think the Jets and Bears have to be the most surprising results on each extreme from this year.

6

I thought so, but apparently they didn’t. I could’ve sworn I remembered a lot of people saying “they’ll be ready next year” last year.

7

It’s a mistake to overlook Miami this year as well. They had a seven game improvement and look pretty good for the future. Sure the core of the D,(Thomas, Taylor, Madison) are getting older and past their prime, but Saban brought in some damn good young D talent as well. With Brown and Williams, running looks good for the future, and the recieving core good, all they need is a QB and some O-line studs.

And most importantly Saban looks like a guy who should be able to get it done in the NFL.

8

5 game improvement, don’t know where I got 7

9

Still nothing to sneeze at. In fact, it’s quite impressive, really. Worthy of respect and admiration. Any team that can do that should be lavished with glowing praise. Improving your record by 5 wins is a sign of true greatness in a franchise.

6-10 to 11-5. Go Big Blue!

10

The Raiders certainly surprised me. I didn’t see them as a powerhouse, but I never would have predicted they’d end up as a sort of basket case.

11

I admit that I haven’t seen much of the season, but looking at the standings and seeing Seattle at 13-3, I have to say…whoa.

This is the Cleveland Cavaliers of football, for crying out loud. A show up, play the season, cash the paycheck, and go home team with almost no big names and which never amounts to anything. And on the rare occasions they make the playoffs, they promptly get stomped by a team that actually belongs there. Now they’ve clinched home field by two games and look like the odds-on favorite to win the NFC Championship.

I’ll have to look to some of those games to see what the heck just happened, but for now…whoa. Never saw this coming in a hundred years.

12

The Good

**Seattle ** - I just didn’t see this coming. I figued they’d be good, but not number-1-in-the-NFC good.

**Chicago ** - This team’s defense is amazing, but I just don’t see how they can win with that offense. Pittsburgh bitch-slapped them, and I have a feeling they will be one-and-done in the playoffs. Their schedule was pretty easy this year. Not their fault, they played who they had to, but they did it with Kyle Orton. The media has put Rex Grossman on such a pedestal and the guy’s done nothing in the NFL. What’s he started, 3 games? The scary thing is that if Grossman can put up 20 points, the Bears could be in the Super Bowl.

**Indianapolis ** - The defense finally comes around. And I’m rooting for them because of Dungy. But Manning is a headcase and he can’t win the big one. The first interception in the playoffs will bring the patented Manning-shoulder & head-droop. I hope Peyton proves me wrong.

**Miami ** - Finished strong and have Gus “head butt” Frerotte! Now THAT’S coaching, folks!

**Jacksonville ** - 12-4? Who would have thought that at the beginning of the season? Maybe Dr. Z?

The Bad

**Arizona ** - There is some serious talent in the desert and they still only win 5 games. This franchise has been stuck in the mud for so long, I don’t think they know how to win.

**Atlanta ** - Choke-city with the league’s most over-rated player (M. Vick). Everyone can see this guy is a great athlete, but he’s an average QB at best. 8-8 is the perfect record for this underachieving franchise.

**Houston ** - 'nuff said already.

The Ugly (or the NFC North)

**Green Bay ** - a team with this many injuries can’t win. And then they fire Mike Sherman today. This move is to get rid of Brett Favre, but the Green Bay management doesn’t have the stones to force Brett out directly.

**Minnesota ** - Mike Tice, Lunkhead Jr. of the NFL, led this band of clowns to a winning record after the love boat scandal, but talk about a tragic waste of talent.

**Detroit ** - Matt Millen, Lunkhead Sr. Now THIS is a guy with photos of goats and Mr. Ford together. What a train wreck of a franchise.

**San Diego ** - No coach (beside Mary Shottenheimer protege Bill Cowher) does so little with so much.

**Philadelphia ** - The T.O., McNabb, Reid, Rosenhaus soap opera was an embarrassment to the league. Hats off to McNabb, Reid, and Eagles management of taking the high road and getting rid of the cancer called T.O. This was such a waste of talent.
FTR, I think Dr. Z is an idiot. He’s been an idiot for years, and he is still employed. I have suspected for years that he’s kept his job because of some handy photography work (boss with goats, perhaps? See Matt Millen), but he is so far off so often, he doesn’t seem to do any real research. I think most NFL fans could pull predictions out of our butts, but he gets paid for it. Lucky bastage! (In retrospect, maybe all these prediction guys pull them out of their behinds. That’s where my opinions here came from! )

13

Let me give a shout out to my beloved Vikings as the most surprising team of the season. Who would’ve guessed that Daunte Culpepper would implode so badly after his best season, a season that in any other year woulda got him the MVP (damn you, Peyton!)? Who foresaw that they’d lose so many of their first games? Nobody saw the love boat scandal coming, I can tell you that. Nor the Whizzinator (well, maybe we shoulda had an inkling there). Add a season-ending injury for Culpepper, a pretty good performance by Johnson, a resurrection that had some talking about coach of the year for Tice (gods, no!), then right back into the toilet to end the season. Surprises? Hell yeah - we had at least one a week!

14

Hah, you have quite the point; the Vikings ended up exactly where I expected them to at the beginning of the year (average team just out of the playoffs - I didn’t particularly buy all of the hype)… but I’ll be damned if they didn’t take the most surprising route to get there.