Bingo.
Decided to resurrect this thread after reading this week’s Monday Morning Quarterback column from Peter King today. He discusses several of the most debated rookies in the opening stanza of his column this week and how that’s likely to impact the draft. As he notes it’s exactly 1 month until the draft and I’m starting to get edgy.
Column here: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/03/27/mmqb/index.html
I think this is spot on. I speculated a month ago that Newton and/or Gabbert could end up in the top overall spot, and I think that’s still a possibility but most likely I think that’d require someone trading up. Gabbert’s going to Arizona at the latest, Newton is going to Cincy or someone is trading up to get him and that team will regret the decision.
I’ve been getting more on board with Locker as the process has gone along. They’ve been showing a lot of tape on him and he’s given a lot of interviews and I’m pretty sure he’d be the guy I’d want if I’m a NFL team. Gabbert is more accurate but might not adjust to being under center and if you can get Locker in the late 1st round or the top of the second you are getting awesome value. If I’m Tennessee I’m desperately hoping I can use my 1st rounder on defense and get Locker with my 2nd, ditto San Fransisco. Can you imagine the Niners getting Peterson with their first rounder and trading up 15-20 spots to get Locker with the second, I think Harbaugh would make that work.
I don’t care about the off-the-field stuff with Mallett, I think his lack of mobility will be a bigger issue. Wouldn’t be shocked to see him go to Oakland in the 2nd round or maybe Minnesota if they think the Joe Webb experiment is a lost cause. Shanahan likes his big armed QBs too, so maybe he’ll end up in Washington.
He’s still the best DL I’ve seen in this draft and think he should go #1 to Carolina. If they don’t take a QB and don’t take Dareus, Bowers or Fairley who the heck are they going to take? Peterson? Green?
Everyone loves Miller and Peterson apparently, no news there. At this point they, along with Dareus, probably should be the top 3 picks in some order. Buffalo with Fitzpatrick probably should be looking at a second tier QB in the second round. Ponder or Locker might be nice options to develop.
Yup, see above.
Seems like the Bears picked the wrong year to be desperate to draft a OT. None of these guys seem to be sure things and great OTs tend to step in right away. The list of excellent OTs who developed later seems like a pretty short one. The uncertainty at the position probably means that a OT will slide to the Bears as teams target other needs but he might be Chris Williams all over again, though the opposite could be true and all the OTs could get gobbled up early in a panic and save the Bears from rolling the dice.
If anyone takes Jones over Green they will regret it for a decade. Green’s a stud. He’s no Megatron, like some of said, he’s not that dynamic but he is going to be incredibly reliable as a rookie. He’s a better version of Mike Williams and will move the chains. Green’s precise routes and hands and McCoy’s accuracy might be a terrific combination, even if I doubt McCoy’s overall ability a player like Green would match up well with him.
Sounds an awful lot like what I said a month ago. How low will Fairley go? Will he pout or will he be a guy who plays his entire career with a chip on his shoulder? Seems like he’ll land at Tennessee and if he’s not careful could have a Haynesworth-like flameout. The similarities are eerie, though Fairley adds a healthy dose of Shaun Rogers’ “motor”.
I’m not as down on Bowers as Fairley. I think the comparison is thin. Bowers will be healthy by the start of the season and there’s no reason to think he’s fragile or damaged goods IMHO. The guy shows up and is a rare two-way 4-3 DE. What if he slides to Houston, would they pair him with Williams? St. Louis wants a WR, maybe Jones, but if Bowers falls that far Spagnuolo would have to wet himself. Hope he’s not in Detroit alongside Suh, I’ll say that much.
It’s not much of a surprise any more is it Peter? Liuget has been in the low to mid teens on just about every mock draft since the Combine. I had been desperately hoping he’d slide to the Bears to replace Tommie Harris but that ship has sailed. Liuget is possibly the fastest rising prospect out there and with a scheduled appearance on NFLN tomorrow he’s on his way to being a household name. At this point I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he went ahead of Fairley. I know I’ll miss screaming “Legit!!!” when watching Illini games on 3rd down.
Some of my preliminary thoughts on this years’ draft:
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In the words of Cubs fans every year: Just wait till next year. Were I the GM of a rebuilding team, I’d be waiting until next year to draft a QB. Gabbert, Newton, Mallett, and Locker do nothing for me in this year’s draft and are no better than prospects like Landry Jones, Matt Barkley, and Terrelle Pryor coming out next year, and a whole lot worse than Andrew Luck. Next year’s draft will be QB heavy, with those guys, and John Brantley, Kirk Cousins, and even Kellen Moore likely being able to help your team out immediately/or be good prospects in the long run. To me, it’s much smarter for teams like the Panthers, Bills, Cardinals, Redskins, and Broncos to grab a solid defensive player like Dareus, Miller, or Peterson than reach for a project QB early in the first round. None of the QB’s in this years’ draft are ready for the NFL, so grab another position and wait till next year. That said, I like Christian Ponder to be the best value pick at QB. If he can stay healthy and has his arm strength back, I think he’ll make a good pro.
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I like the depth at OT. I think Castonzo, Smith, Carimi, and Sherrod are all first round talents who may be available for the Packers. There are also some intriguing prospects like Benjamin Ijalana, Marcus Cannon, and David Mims who could make a splash. But part of the reason there is so much depth is that there isn’t a special talent among them. Solder has the build you love, but is inexperienced and uncoached. Castonzo may not have elite athleticism. Smith could have used another year in college and is still raw. Carimi may have problems with speed rushers But later in the first round is not a bad spot to grab one of these guys.
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I am extremely risk averse when it comes to the NFL draft in the first round. Which is why I would want absolutely nothing to do with Cam Newton, Nick Fairly, Robert Quinn, and Jimmy Smith. Objectively, I understand that these guys have special talents and could be gamechangers in the NFL, but I’d want nothing to do with drafting them in the first round. I’d rather find someone with special athleticism who has shown good judgment and the ability to be coached up (like Sam Shields) in the later rounds than blow a pick in the first round on a head case/one year wonder.
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Here’s my list of my favorite named guys in the draft this year:
Prince Amukamara
Jock Sanders
Ladi Ajiboye
Sam Acho
Buster Skrine
Will Hill
Eugene Germany
Bront Bird
It should be interesting to see what I learn in the next month. More later.
If San Fran trades back into the end of the first for a QB, I can’t see it being for Locker. It would be for Ponder. If somebody beats them to Ponder, they’d go for “my” guy, Colin Kaepernick. I just don’t like Locker. I’d choose Dalton or even Stanzi ahead of Locker.
I imagine few people are more familiar with Jake Locker than Jim Harbaugh. It’ll be interesting to see what he does.
You say this every year. I think you might be Jerry Angelo in disguise.
Dem’s fightin’ words.
I liked Aaron Rodgers, Matt Leinart (whoops), Brady Quinn (double whoops), Matt Ryan (more than Flacco), Stafford, and Bradford (except his injury concern) all in the first round. Hell, next year, I’ll likely want 3 QBs in the first round. Just cause I didn’t like Cutler, Flacco, or Freeman doesn’t mean every QB taken in the first round sucks. I also think next year will have a very deep class of potential franchise QB’s who will succeed more than ones taken in this year’s draft.
Well, Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly, wrote up a blistering review of Cam Newton for the PFW Draft guide:
"The "negatives’’ section of the draft preview describes Newton as "Very disingenuous — has a fake smile, comes off as very scripted and has a selfish, me-first makeup. Always knows where the cameras are and plays to them. Has an enormous ego with a sense of entitlement that continually invites trouble and makes him believe he is above the law — does not command respect from teammates and always will struggle to win a locker room. Only a one-year producer.
"Lacks accountability, focus and trustworthiness — is not punctual, seeks shortcuts and sets a bad example. Immature and has had issues with authority. Not dependable.‘’
And he stands by those comments now.
This isn’t some nobody from Bleacher Report writing either. It would certainly make me think twice before committing to Newton.
Pretty much says everything I thought about the guy based on the short interviews I’ve seen of him, especially the fake smile and entitlement. Interesting to see someone so blunt about it in print though.
And pretty much the exact things you could say about Tim Tebow. Very scripted and cliche answers to every question, as if he had a coach and a PR guy in his earpiece. Maybe not so much the other stuff, like the difficulty leading a locker room and the lack of trustworthiness, nobody questioned that about Tebow… But it’s remarkable to me how people overlooked how disingenuous Tebow seemed and how nobody can overlook it with Newton.
I made something like that observation last offseason about Tebow. I searched for it but couldn’t find it. The issue is that Tebow seems to believe all his bullshit.
Here’s a bit of “wisdom” about Cam Newton:
"“A lot of the criticism he’s receiving is unfortunate and racially based, I thought we were all past this. I don’t see other quarterbacks in the draft being criticized by the media or fans about their smile or called a phony. He’s being held to different standards from white quarterbacks. I thought we were past all this stuff about African-American quarterbacks, but I guess we’re not.”
“Of course there is racism in every walk of society. We’ve made a lot of progress in this country. But racism is still there. I just thought in the sports arena we were beyond it. I think the way Cam is being treated shows we’re not.”
Brought to you by a quarterback I liked, truly enjoyed watching, and who I always thought was a pretty keen guy, Warren Moon. It’s a shame to see him playing the race card on this one, I always thought he was bigger than race baiting.
He went on to add: “The thing that makes me laugh is the question of can he [Newton] come out of the spread offense? Can he run a pro offense? Colt McCoy came out of the spread offense and very few people raised that issue about him. So did Sam Bradford. Same thing. Very few questions asking if Bradford could run a pro offense. Some of these questions about Cam are more about his intellect. It’s blatant racism, some of it.”
Complete and utter bullshit. Both Colt and Sam had the exact same questions and concerns about them when they came out. So, please, Warren, so I can keep all my happy memories about you, please shut the fuck up.
Well, with no free agency, no spring camps, no OTA’s or trades, and with the judge’s ruling in the case being put off for a couple weeks, and the same judge urging the teams to get back to mediation, there is nothing going in in the NFL right now except the draft. And there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of interest, at least here, about it.
I, however, am gearing up for it. 3 more weeks until the draft. I’m liking the fact that I think that picking late in the rounds isn’t going to be too much of a hinderance. I think teams will be reaching for questionable players, leaving more solid players available later in the round. Nonetheless, it should be interesting no matter what.
And for haters of The Coiffed One, here’s a quote from him last year: "You can mark that down,” Kiper went on. “Jake Locker, if he’s not the No. 1 pick, it’s an upset.” He said it was “etched in stone” that Locker would be the #1 pick. Heh. Good work Mel.
You’re not alone. I just stopped yelling into the echo chamber around here since it seems like no one else has the itch.
I have pretty much the exact opposite reaction to the late draft position as you do. Though, that’s probably because the Bears have needs all over the field and I expect that all their targeted players will be coming off the board in the 20-26 range and they’ll be the ones left reaching. There seems to be a pretty big drop off of talent after about 25 players and there’s a pretty distinct shortage at a handful of positions, specifically WR and CB, two positions the Bears should be targeting.
All the players I like and that were expected to be available for the Bears have all pretty much skyrocketed up the boards. Back in February it was realistic to hope the Bears could target Corey Liuget and Martez Wilson with their 1st and 2nd picks, not Luiget might be a top 10 pick and Wilson might not even be there at 29 overall. Gabe Carimi has become perhaps the most NFL ready OT prospect and the Bears will either be stuck taking a project OT or reaching for a 3rd tier guy that might never pan out like Sherrod or Ijalana. Pouncey almost certainly will be gone as well, but at least that’s been a given from the start.
I have a sickening feeling the this draft is going to play out exactly the wrong way for the Bears. They’ll be sitting there at 29 with nothing but QBs, DEs, OLBs and RBs left. They’ll be stuck deciding if they should reach for a OT, WR or DT in this spot and I’m sure none of those options will sound good. The best case scenario is that someone trades up with them to grab a Locker, Dalton or Ponder and maybe even a LeShoure or Williams.
Best case scenario for the Bears is that either Carimi, Solder or Pouncey miraculously falls to them at 29 or they trade out then they take a guy like Marvin Austin in the 2nd and Greg Little in the 3rd. Getting two UNC character/rust issue guys probably won’t happen but they indicate the best value/upside combo at positions of need.
It looks like the Lions are slated to take Amukamara, which is perfect, because it’s the best player available, and at a position of need. This is going to be a fun draft, and I wonder if some teams have someone they like and are willing to move up and take with an earlier pick. I think we’re going to see some trading, particularly from the Patriots.
I think the lack of free agent signings will generate a ton of trades. Teams with obvious needs like to sign veteran free agents prior to the draft in order to obfuscate their draft strategy and allow them to simply go BPA. This year GMs will get really nervous not knowing who they’ll be able to land in FA and will go out of their way to get those handful of guys they see as immediate starters in the draft. I suspect QB, WR and CB starved teams will be trying to trade up eagerly until the top guys are gone.
Agreed, mostly. There’s clearly a difference between Newton and Gabbert and then Locker, and then the next tier of players out there for quarterback, but it seems like the league, as of last year, has decided to not get quarterback-crazy, and to actually value them properly. I don’t think there are many takers for the top three quarterbacks, outside of those that clearly would need or want a quarterback. Any one of those quarterback-needy teams passing on one of those three could make for an interesting slide.
You’ve also clearly got two receivers that grade out to be the best, by far. After that, you’re got a similar situation that you have with your quarterbacks.
In any case, this year’s draft could be very interesting. To me, from what I’ve heard (which is nothing special), Peterson is the best player in this draft. I think there’s going to be some posturing and some wheeling and dealing at that 7 spot for him, especially if the 49ers don’t see that huge of a gap between Peterson and Amukamara and Smith.
I’m thinking there will be more trading done at the bottom of the first round than at the top. Teams will be looking to move up from the top of the second to the bottom of the first to grab players they like/need, like the Pack did getting Clay Matthews (great call) or the Lions with Jahvid Best (ahem). Teams will try and move up to grab guys like Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Jonathon Baldwin, Nate Solder, and others who they like, but don’t think will last to the second round. Just my guess.
I am bummed by the lack of movement on the CBA, its really putting a damper on my desire to watch the draft, especially since I want Mike Brown to trade Carson Palmer for 2011 draft picks, which can’t happen unless there’s a new agreement in place before the draft, which I don’t see happening.
This shit sucks.
Again, with the Locker thing, do teams think there’s a big enough gap between Locker and the next tier? There seem to be a few project quarterbacks that could be had for pretty cheaply out there, it seems.