NFL pool strategy

I’m in an NFL pool and know nothing about the NFL. I currently guess randomly but want to attempt something better.

The pool is with the spread. Let’s say I pick Xteam over Yteam… and the spread is Xteam +6.5. If Xteam wins by 7 or more I get 1 point.

I’m open to suggestions but I was thinking of trying the following:

Keep track of each team’s “for” points. Do home/away separately and weight in the following manner:

Average most recent 3 games x .75
Average the previous 6 games x .25

For Xteam playing at Yteam, calculate Xteam away points and Yteam home points, adjust for the spread and the most points is my pick.

Make sense?

or… maybe I should consider offense and defense.

So, rather than just look at “for” points, calculate +/-
e.g. For points - Against points

The simplest method is to always bet on the team that’s less popular. The spreads the bookies set aren’t a reflection of the probabilities (at least not directly); they’re a reflection of how they believe people will bet, and the more popular team will have people betting on what they want to happen, not what they think actually will happen.

Of course, the downside of this is that if you’re betting against teams that your friends like, it might make you unpopular.

I once ran a pool with over 100 players. I’d throw in some “robot” teams on the standings spreadsheet just for fun - things like “all favorites” or “all home teams.”

One year one of the robot teams won the yearly pool by about 10 games over the best human player. That team was “first alphabetically by city name.”

When you’re in a pick against the spread pool it’s > 99% random. I wouldn’t worry about it too much.

If Xteam is getting 6.5 points, it can lose the game by up to 6 points and you still win.

I played a football pool once that included college and pro games. I sucked, usually missing far more than I got. One week I played two sheets. On the first I really tried hard to do well, while on the second I just reversed the picks from the first sheet.

My reverse choice sheet won! When I told the guy who managed the pool that was how I won he got really pissed off at me.