Suggest a NFL Pool default strategy

The Game Room
1

I barely know the names of the teams, and yet find myself in a football pool this season. The pool is pick the winners of the weekly matches taking into account the spread.

If I’m not using the correct jargon, an example for clarity:

This week the Redskins play the Giants and New York is a 3.5 point favorite, so if I pick Giants they have to win by at least 4.

Now, since I know nothing about the NFL my options are to “eeny-meeny” hoping I get lucky, or else bone up and study the teams and the game and try to pretend I know what I am doing.

Or, could anyone suggest a default strategy that might be effective? Like “pick Northern teams when the weather gets cold”. (I thought that might be a good one, but in theory the spead-setters take that into account too). Or pick visitors, or pick underdogs.

What would you do?

2

I won my office pool 7 times one year using these basics

Never ever pick the Lions.

Pick mostly Home teams (unless one is the Lions)

Pick underdogs of 10 or more(unless one is the lions)

Always pick the Rams(wouldn’t suggest that this year though…unless they are playing the Lions)

3

Do you have to pick all of the games?

I used to be pretty successful in a pool in which each of us got to pick eight games each week, either college or pro, though my strategy could work in a pro-only pool in which you only have to pick some of the games.

What I did was look for the games that had the biggest spreads, and then bet for the underdogs. In the college games, even when Monster U. played Puny Community College, there was a pretty good chance that that the game would end up within the 31 point spread because once the gap opens sufficiently, few schools will run up the score.

The pros teams are more balanced than college match-ups, so that where there is a 14 point spread, say, in a pro game, it’s pretty likely that the game will end up within the two touchdown gap.

So, if you can only pick a few games, it may be an effective strategy to pick the games with the biggest point spreads and choose the underdogs.

4

While I joke about the Lions,my original reasoning was that living in Michigan I figured(correctly) that nearly everyone else in the pool would pick them to cover every week. So when they didn’t cover, which was often,I was one up on all entries.So you might wanna consider picking against the local favorite.

I still wouldn’t pick the Lions though.

5

Hate to say it, but this is probably your best strategy. Most of the so-called experts who do these sorts of things end up somewhere within spitting distance of .500. Often below as a matter of fact, last year was especially tough on spread pickers. The Vegas wiseguys are extraordinarily good at what they do and those point spreads tend to be very, very effective at splitting the number of people on either side of the pick. The end result that there is effectively no real “conventional wisdom”.

All in all it’s a crapshoot. As the year goes on you’ll notice that certain teams have a tendency to beat the spread (which really just means that they have fewer irrational gamblers on their side to push up the spread) and vice versa so identifying them and picking them can help, but it’s not reliable in any one week.

6

Studying the teams to predict the outcome is like trying to time the stock market. All the publicly available knowledge about the teams is already priced into the bet in the form of the spread. The only thing I could think of is if some late-breaking news event like a star player becoming injured after the spread has already been set. You’re better off playing against the other people than against the spread.

Who else is in the pool? Are there rabid fans, or mostly people who don’t really know much of the game and want to have fun with an office pool?

If there is a heavy favorite from within the pool, pick the other team. If you’re wrong, oh well, but if you’re right, you’ll be competing with fewer people for the best score of the week. It’s like buying lottery tickets; you should never pick the common numbers or patterns. It’s not that 1-2-3-4-5-6 is any less likely than 12-13-23-31-45-67, it’s that if you happen to win on the first set, so did a bunch of other people.

7

Yes.

8

I usually look for home underdogs.

9

Then pick whomever you want. The first time I did a Pick 'Em against the spread I was amazed at how good the odds makers are. Turned most of the games into a toss-up. I’d pick 12 our of 15 games correctly straight across, but only go 8-7 against the spread…every week.

With the spread…pick whomever you want.

10

Thanks everyone for your replies. I especially like IAmTheWalrus’s suggestion of a counter-strategy based upon my fellow pool players tendencies. Makes sense!