I’m in one of those survivor NFL pools. Each participant picks 1 winner every weekend. If your team loses, you’re out. There are no restrictions, except for the first 5 weeks, you can’t pick the game with highest point spread. The next 5 weeks, you can’t pick the 2 games with the highest point spreads and the final few weeks, you can’t select the games with the 3 highest point spreads. You can pick the same team over and over again as long it is not playing in one of the highest point spread games. If it gets to the playoffs, there are no restrictions.
The pool started with around 7,000 participants. After 2 weeks, there are less than half that still survive. Week 1, I took Seattle and last week, I took Minnesota.
This week, I’m not so sure so I’ll try the Wisdom of Crowds approach. This week, we can’t select the Baltimore game since it has the highest spread. Again, we’re only selecting a winner so please don’t consider the spread. Please participate whether you’re a football fan or not. The only thing I ask is not to look at the picks of the others until you’ve made your selection. This is essential to the Wisdom of Crowds concept. In fact, it would be great if everyone can use the spoiler function to hide their picks. I will use the most selected team as of Friday afternoon around 4PM EDT.
KC @ PHI
CLE @ BAL (unavailable due to spread)
NYG @ TB
ATL @ NE
TEN @ NYJ
GB @ STL
SF @ MIN
JAC @ HOU
WAS @ DET
CHI @ SEA
NO @ BUF
MIA @ SD
DEN @ OAK
PIT @ CIN
IND @ ARI
CAR @ DAL
I would go with: The hot hand of Drew Brees. Take NO over Buffalo. I don’t tend to go with the hot streaks because the end of the streak always takes a pile of people by surprise. The difference here is Brees isn’t just on a hot streak he is simply dominating defenses and won’t succumb to the overconfidence that sinks so many of these hot QBs. His coach is prone to that overconfidence but they’ll be OK for a few more weeks. Buffalo has improved from last year but not enough to win this game.
Given how bad Washington has been I wouldn’t even consider using that game, were I the OP. This could be the week for the Lions.
A few games stick out:
Pittsburgh at Cincy: the Steelers are looking for revenge after that loss to Chicago.
Giants at Tampa: Giants look good, Tampa D has been horrible.
Carolina at Dallas: sadly, the Panthers have the worst points differential in the league to this point.
New Orleans at Buffalo: this pains me to say, but you can’t ignore the fact that Drew Brees is not playing football right now, he’s playing Madden with the difficulty level set on ‘Easy’
KC @ PHI: Too many questionmarks with McNabb out, and even if he plays he may not hold up for a full game.
CLE @ BAL: Oooh.
NYG @ TB: The Buccaneers’ offense has looked remarkably good through two games, considering the offensive coordinator was fired three weeks ago and the overall lack of talent. The Giants have looked good but not dominant enough to pick them on the road.
ATL @ NE: Atlanta looks really good, New England looks bad, but you never pick against the Pats.
TEN @ NYJ: Hard to say where these teams are right now- can’t trust the Jets offense enough to pick them against a really good team.
GB @ STL: St. Louis held Washington to 9 points last week and the Packers offense has looked oddly out of sync.
SF @ MIN: Oooh. If Gore is on the injury report, this might be the one.
JAC @ HOU: Houston has a better record against Jacksonville than any other team in the NFL, and they’re at home… but they’re still the Texans.
WAS @ DET: Detroit is putting up points and yards, and Washington’s offense was no great shakes against an equally poor on-paper defense at St. Louis.
CHI @ SEA: If Hasselbeck was healthy this would be my pick. He’s not.
NO @ BUF: Buffalo might be really good, and the Saints defense is still not good. Avoid.
MIA @ SD: Two equally flawed teams.
DEN @ OAK: See above.
PIT @ CIN: The Bengals looked good beating the Packers, and the Steelers looked bad losing to the Bears.
IND @ ARI: Arizona are tough at home, but you can’t pick against the Colts in the regular season, especially against a team with no rushing attack to take advantage of the Colts’ only weakness.
CAR @ DAL: Over-under on interceptions thrown by Romo and Delhomme: 5. I’m tempted to pick Dallas here but Carolina are a lot better than they’ve shown so far.
None of those games really jumps out at me, given the injury concerns, except Cleveland-Baltimore. Which you’re not allowed to pick. I can’t pick Dallas with Marion Barber out. I can’t pick Minnesota against a 49ers team that’s an honest 2-0. Take the Texans against Jacksonville.
ETA: Marley, those are all road teams. The easiest way to outthink yourself when picking games is to pick a road team. In the NFL the home team wins 60% of the time.
I’ve no idea about the point spread (though it might be one of the highest, and thus, you’re outta luck), and maybe the rules are such that you can’t pick the same team as last week, but I’d consider picking Minnesota again. We’re playing the 49ers. While yeah, it’s always possible we’ll lose (any given Sunday and all that), I really doubt it.
I love football, but really only watch the NFC North.
I’d take the Redsksins over the Lions or the Packers over the Rams.
Don’t be fooled by anyone that advises you to pick the Steelers over the Bengals. The Bengals are starting to jell, are at home, and the Steelers are a little disjointed right now.
If you’re looking for a lead pipe, I don’t think you could do any better than the Saints over the Bills. Brees looks like an early MVP candidate right now.
Filter out the games where you have lower confidence in your ability to accurately pick:
ATL @ NE: NE looks soft and ATL is improved
TEN @ NYJ: TEN is good but NYJ is improved and at home
SF @ MIN: Two improved teams, close call
JAC @ HOU: Two unpredictable teams
WAS @ DET:Two weak teams
CHI @ SEA:Two so-so teams
MIA @ SD:Normally, I would pick SD easy, but Miami is improved and SD is having trouble
DEN @ OAK: Two weak/so-so teams
PIT @ CIN: I would pick PIT easy last year, but CIN is improved and at home
IND @ ARI: Both good teams
The remaining games have higher confidence in a pick, but avoid picking road teams, if possible. Filter out the games where you would pick the road team to win (unless it would be an obvious and absolute blow-out):
NYG @ TB - TB isn’t great but NYG looks a bit soft. Not a blow out pick
GB @ STL - STL sucks but GB is not a blow out team now. Not a blow out pick
NO @ BUF - This might be a blow out pick
That leaves these games…
[spoiler]
KC @ PHI: KC sucks but McNabb is out, so I am reluctant to pick PHI.
CAR @ DAL: CAR sucks so far and DAL will want to punch someone in the nose for last week’s loss and will want to seriously avoid losing both of their first two games in the new stadium. Barber may be out, but DAL has 3 good running backs. This would be my pick.[/spoiler]
I picked Dallas at home against Carolina, but your overall point is well taken.
I don’t mean to raise your hopes, if such a thing is possible, but this is a Washington team that just squeaked past the Rams. I wouldn’t bet on the game, but I would not be that surprised if the Lions beat them.
I’d go with Minnesota, the Niners are looking good but the Minnesota defence is tough against the run and the Niners haven’t shown much of a passing game. I say that as a Niners fan