NFL Predictions Week 9

Well, let’s see how we do on the new OMNI picks this week. For the regulars, pick 5 games you think will cover and pick your one SURE winner (straight up). On your straight up pick, you can only use a team once, so when everyone picks the Rams this week, they can’t use them again.

Fantasy Notes-
-Studs at this point - never sit 'em:

QB - Warner, Favre, Manning, Garcia, Culpepper
RB - CMartin, Faulk, AGreen
WR - Owens, Bruce, Holt, Harrison

-Bad news on the Edge front. Not only is he being held out of practice because of a swollen calf, the Colts also dropped WR Tony Simmons (a position they don’t have a lot of depth at with Pathon and Wilkins nursing injuries) in order to sign RB Shyrone Stith. There’s something going on here.

The picks:

Dolphins 23 at Colts 16 (OFF)
See above. The Colts are banged up all over the place on the offense. Miami’s running game has kind of stalled, but the Indy defense is so crappy they can work with it.
START: Mare, Vanderjagt, Travis Minor, Fiedler.

Bills 17 at Patriots 23 (NE by 6)
Count on it - by the end of the season the Bills will be starting VanPelt at QB and the Pats will be begging for the Texans to draft Bledsoe.
START: ASmith, Troy Brown. AVOID: Moulds (always sucks against NE)

Panthers 10 at Rams 41 (Rams by 17 1/2) OMNI
It’s a huge spread, but Faulk is back, the Rams don’t stop pounding on a team (see the Jets game) and the Panthers may be starting a QB with an injured wing (Wienke), a 3rd stringer (Lytle), or a guy they just signed (Harbaugh). Interesting note - Carolina won both games last year. But…we’re talking about two different teams now. And the Rams are coming off a bye after getting beat.
START: All Rams, including the defense.

Cowboys at Atlanta (OFF)
No score given because it depends on the Falcon QB. If Chandler’s OK and good to go, take ATL. If Vick starts, expect a fun game to watch but a DAL win.
START: Wait and see,

Bucs 17 at Lions 20 (TB by 5) OMNI
Take the points and talk it up. On Monday you’ll look like a football god. I’m that sure of the Lions against a TB team that has no offense a defense that’s fading.
START: Alstott on a hunch

Packers 27 at Bears 24 (OT) (GB by 2 1/2)
Tough defenses on both sides. They know each other though, and it will bounce back and forth, Lucky Bears lose in OT this time.
START: AThomas, Favre, Freeman, Booker.

Chiefs 27 at Jets 16 (NYJ by 4 1/2) OMNI
Another game where you take the points and laugh all the way to the bank. Look, the Jets DEs are pass rushers, quick around the end. They can help out on power runners (Ricky W) but they get their asses kick on speed guys (Canidate).
START: John Hall, Priest Holmes.

Steelers 17 at Browns 10 (PIT by 3)
The Browns have to be reeling after the loss to the Bears, and it doesn’t get easier this week.
START: Plaxico, both defenses.

Bengals 20 at Jaguars 17 (JAX by 4)
The wheels are falling off three teams. The Jags are one of them.
START: Dillon, DScott.

Chargers 17 at Broncos 31 (DEN by 6) OMNI
Look, I love an underdog (just look at my OMNI picks), but we’re looking at the other two teams where the wheels are falling off. Take the home team against a soft SD pass defense.
START: RSmith, Greise, FJones.

Vikings 17 at Eagles 24 (PHI by 4)
I can’t believe the league is going to dissolve the Minnesota team…oh wait, that’s baseball. There will be a lot of long balls from Culpepper to Moss from here on out. That happens when both the coach and the owner predict he’ll still get 17+ TDs.
START: Moss, Culpepper, McNabb, Pinkston AVOID: Thrash (I finally figured him out – start him in away games, bench him at home. Chack the stats.)

Saints 24 at 49ers 21 (SF by 3)
Someone please tell me why Turley is getting a bigger fine than DRobinson. Damien should be suspended for the YEAR! Granted that Turley’s actions after the fracas were out of line, but Robinson was basically trying to maim Brooks. I still say Brooks is being Kordelled, but I think he’ll just say, “screw it” and win this one.
START: Brooks, RWilliams.

Giants 27 at Cards 13 (NYG by 5 1/2)
Like Fassell, I will guarantee that my 2-6 fantasy team will make the playoffs. Of course. I have maybe 5 out of 18 players drafted still on my team after trades and the waiver wire.
START: Boston, Jurevicious, Collins.

Raiders 30 at Seahawks 13 (OAK by 6 1/2) OMNI
I don’t give a rip if Holmgren goes with Dilfer and his winning streak. The Raiders are the most balanced and best team in the NFL right now. And I hate the Raiders.
START: Janikowski, Gannon, Garner.

Ravens 30 at Titans 13 (BAL by 1 1/2)
The Titans are giving up miles in the air this year and Grbac comes back this week. Don’t worry, Eddie George will be back. Just not this week.
START: Grbac, QIsmail, Sharpe.

OK, to sum it up:

OMNI picks:
OAK, STL, DET, KC, DEN

One winner straight up: Rams

I don’t have my picks thought through yet, and I tried to avoid looking at yours, Gazoo, but just wanted to check in and say it looks like another bitch of a weak. Glad I don’t do this for a living.

Get yer Freudian slips right here, get 'em while they’re hot!
[sub]sheesh, what a maroon![/sub]

Well, statistically speaking, don’t the LIONS have to win sometime ? Oh for gods sake…

I haven’t completely done my picks yet, but I’ll enter my OMNI picks here:

[list=1][li]Packers[/li][li]Panthers (I think they’ll lose, just not by 18)[/li][li]Steelers[/li][li]Bengals (I think they’ll win, and they’re underdogs)[/li]Lions (I have a hunch they’ll finally win this week, if not, it’ll be a close loss)[/list=1]My straight up pick (not to be re-used, right?) are the Giants.

My picks to cover: Baltimore, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, , NY Giants, Oakland

Straight up: St Louis

I owe you half the company pot I won last week, the only modification being Washington. Let me know when you’d like a $9.00 beer.

See that! We won someone some money! WooHoo!

Pick speads against this weeks line up? Geez, maybe you should ask me to compute the launch window for the next shuttle lift off.

Oh well first my changes.

The Niners will beat the Saints. This game has potential playoff ramifications for both teams. Brooks is being overcoached. TOs’ PO’d. Smells Niner victory 31 to 24.

The Packers and Bears won’t be that close, say 31 to 10. The Bears are overdue for a thrashing. Pity it’ll come at Soldiers Field.

Finally look for a dismal performance from Dallas no matter who the Falcons start. Emmitt Smith is looking really questionable. Falcons 16 Dallas 9.

Okay the spreads.

Covering:

Oakland (you’re not alone Gazoo)
Rams
Broncos
Iggles
Giants

I just went through my pick’ em league. I can honestly say that after the top three this week, I could go either way. (My top three confidence picks: Baltimore, Oakland and St. Louis).

I am going with Baltimore to shutdown any semblance of an offense the Titan’s have as my pick 'o the week. I just want to hold onto St. Louis for when I really need them. [sub]watch the Titans somehow manage to thrash the Ravens[/sub]

For my pick five against the spread, eenie, meenie, minie…

Rams, Bengals, Ravens, Raiders, Cardinals… too bad there aren’t more teams that start with ‘R’, I’d take them, too.

Cardinals are again my WTF am I thinking pick in there. Just feel the Giants have been too pathetic looking the past few weeks to cover anything.

Good news, Gazoo, we differ on five games this week. Six if you count that I will take Atlanta over Dallas no matter what. Check that up to the Leaf Factor. I have Chicago over Green Bay, which is just plain wrong, but these guys have carried my butt all year (I have A-train in my fantasy league so could afford to trade Dillon for a reliable QB), so I have to stick with them. This could hurt.

Again, up in Detroit I am staying with my Bucs. Everything points to this being stupid (Batch has their number, they lose on the road in the division, other things you’ve mentioned), but it seems every year the Bucs start out 3-4 and then go on a tear. Plus they probably should have beaten the Pack in Lambeau last week. And against Detroit is as good as any place for your offense to get healthy. I am really going to regret this one.

I am sticking with the Colts against the Fins. I don’t care if James plays, Rhodes was respectable as a back up, Pathon may be back, but more importantly L. Smith has averaged 37 yards a game the past two weeks against bottom tier run defenses. My guess is Wannstedt is trying to show people why he was booted out of Chicago.

Jets over Chiefs. I hate both of these teams, but at least the Jets have somehow found a way to win. Just not sold that the Chiefs can win at all, much less on the road, although I’ll grant you that on paper they should take this game.

Ditto Giants and Cardinals. Another game no one deserves to win. How can the Giants go from Super Bowl to subpar so quickly? Seems that they are out to try and prove that last season was a fluke based on playing in a weak division. When both teams suck I tend to stay with the home team.

One more comment, on a game where I agree. On paper, SF should tear up New Orleans. But New Orleans seems to follow subpar games with wins and they play better on the road for some reason. We’ll see.

PS to stuffinb: What’s your ONE pick?

ShibbOleth:

Oops!
I’m gonna look like a genius or idiot: Detroit. Hey gotta play the odds.

Gazoo
5 ATS: STL -17 1/2, DET +5, KC +4 1/2, DEN -6, OAK -6 1/2
SURE: STL

Montfort
5 ATS: GB - 2 1/2, CAR + 17 1/2, PIT -3, CIN +4, DET +5
SURE: NYG

mouthbreather
5 ATS: BAL -1 1/2, GB -2 1/2, PIT -3, NYG -5 1/2, OAK -6 1/2
SURE: STL

Stuffinb
5 ATS: OAK -6 1/2, STL -17 1/2, DEN -6, PHI -4, NYG -5 1/2
SURE: DET

ShibbOreth
5 ATS: STL - 17 1/2, CIN +4, BAL -1 1/2, OAK, -6 1/2, AZ +5 1/2
SURE: BAL

Interesting, mouthbreather and Stuffinb took all favorites to cover, yet Stuffinb took an underdog as his sure bet. Still waiting to hear from omni, DKW, RTFirefly, and Crunchy.

Votes to cover:
4 - Raiders

3 - Rams

2 - Giants, Ravens, Lions, Broncos, Steelers, Bengals, Packers

1 - Chiefs, Panthers, Eagles, Cardinals

The more I look at this week’s games, the more I am feeling that 90 of 120 points will take our Confidence league this week. Maybe 80.

[sub]And a small question, am I suddenly Japanese somehow?[/sub]

If you guys had Bill Schroeder, would you start him this week (vs CHI)? Or wait til he gets a good week to put him in? He’s just coming off of a sprained ankle, missed four weeks. Theyre saying he’s gonna play, but it doesn’t look like he’s 100%

I’ve got Rice (vs SEA), McCardell (vs CIN), Dez White (vs GB), or D. Patten (vs BUF) that could replace him. Any thoughts?

Schroeder should be fine, if you’re worried though, I’d go with Rice off your list.

That’s the way I was leaning, too. Oakland finally went back to the air last week, and Seattle is alleged to be tough against the run, which could do good things for Rice. (We have Gannon in my non-Dope Fantasy league, so we’re hoping this holds true. We go against M. Faulk this week.)
Schroeder should be okay but it might be nice to give him a week to get back into things rather than take him against Chicago.

AGreen… Ahman Green? agianst the Bears? Are you crazy?

So treis, you have an opinion? Jump in with some picks then. And back it up with something. The Bucs shut down Green the first time around, then put up 160+ yards the second time around. He may have 30 yards rushing this Sunday, or he could possibly come up big again. I think Gazoo point is that you can’t afford to leave those numbers on the bench. It’s nothing personal against the Bears. Besides, this is the loony 2001 NFL season. The Bears are due for a let down sometime soon. Especially since I picked them to win this weekend.

Green is a fantasy stud, and the number one rule in fantasy is…wait for it…NEVER SIT YOUR STUDS! Yes, Chicago has a formidable rush defense (copied from the 2000 Ravens - 2 big guys in the middle of the line and a quick/good tackler at MLB), their pass defense is nice but not incredible. Green is a big part in the Pack’s receiving game. If I had him would I sit him? Maybe, if I had Faulk and another stud with a better match-up in front of him.

Last year, Dillon faced a #3 ranked rushing defense called the Broncos. He set a single game rushing record. Repeat -NEVER SIT YOUR STUDS.

Well, thank goodness I was able to get the Bears to stop winning by picking them. Sorry about that, Bears fans. And Ahman Green had 96 yards on the ground, 17 receiving and 1 fumble. Not great, not bad. I’m already out of the spread pool with my Cincy pick. At least I have Marshall Faulk back in the SDMB Fantasy league. The offsetting bad news there is that my other Fantasy team is playing against Faulk, and with the point system in that league he may well have already beat us single handed.

How’s everyone else doing so far?