NFL Predictions - Week 5

In My Humble Opinion
1

Ouch, took a beating last week. I need a good week this time around to get back up to .700. As opposed to last week’s seemingly easy match-ups, this week is much, much rougher. I’m still trying to decide on my one LOSER for our stress pool.

Before I get to the picks, I’ve been working on a “formula” to pick games. It includes just about everything possible stat (points scored, points allowed, passing yards, rushing yards, kicker efficiency, turnovers, home field, recent trend, history against the opponent, etc.). These picks aren’t based on the results from that, but I’m hoping to have all the kinks worked on that by Saturday and I’ll post them here just so we can track it’s success (or lack thereof).

Okay, here we go –

Ravens 20 at Packers 16 (Pick ‘em)
The Packers are still playing some really good ball, but are handicapping themselves by even putting Freeman in the starting line-up. Sing it with me “Free Free cut him Free.”
START: Grbac, Sharpe, Longwell.

Buccaneers 17 at Titans 16 (Titans by 3)
I just read this earlier today and got a chuckle – At this pace, Me-shawn will set personal records for receptions and yards…and still have 0 TDs. He’ll find the endzone this week though.
START: Nedney, Keyshawn.

Cardinals 17 at Bears 24 (Bears by 7)
That’s right, I’ve apparently predicted a push. Honestly, I wrote down the scores first this week then looked over the lines. Oh, well. I’m not going to change it now because I really think that will be the final score. (I’m still waiting to nail one on the head.)
START: Jim Miller, Anthony Thomas, Marcus Robinson, Mar Tay Jenkins (like anyone has him on their roster.)

Browns 17 at Bengals 14 (Bengals by 2 ½)
That Brownie defense is actually pretty impressive. I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs this year, but with that young core, they could be one of the top teams in the league in a couple of years. The Bengals? Well, they still have Dillon.
START: Dillon, Kevin Johnson.

Lions 16 at Vikings 31 (Vikings by 10)
The injury plagued mess that is the Lions’ secondary is just what the Vikings need. Don’t be surprised to see Culpepper and the boys just keep running up the score out of frustration.
START: Jason Hanson, Moss, Culpepper, Carter, Chamberlain.

Saints 24 at Panthers 13 (Saints by 5)
Not really sure how this one will go because of that field, but the Saints have had no real problem with the Panthers in 3 of the last 4 meetings, and they’re a much better team now. Meanwhile, the Panthers are worse.
START: Ricky Williams, Willie Jackson, Saints Defense.

Giants 17 at Rams 41 (Rams by 10)
If they were in the Meadowlands, it’d be close. The Rams would still win, but… As it is, there’s no slowing down The Greatest Show on Turf. These guys (including the defense) are clicking on all cylinders.
START: Toomer, Warner, Faulk, Holt, Bruce, Carney, hell, throw Conwell in for good measure.

Steelers 13 at Chiefs 6 (Chiefs by 3)
I think this line was put out before Derrick Alexander injured his back, and I expect it to slide down a bit. In other news, Kordell Stewart has thrown as many TDs this year in the NFL as I have. Oh sure, he’s rushed for one more than I have, but I’m more of a pure pocket QB.
START: Bettis, Steeler Defense.

Chargers 27 at Patriots 13 (Chargers by 3)
Ladanian Tomlinson vs. the Patriots run defense? I’ll take the over on Tomlinson’s yardage please, whatever the line may be.
START: Tomlinson, Charger defense.

49ers 27 at Falcons 17 (OFF, I expect it to be 49ers by 4)
Okay, stuffinb, you win. The 49ers are actually pretty good. The defense, though young, is starting to step up nicely. As for the Falcons, Michael Vick is not ready to be a starting QB in the NFL.
START: Garcia, Owens, Barlow, Cortez.

Dolphins 24 at Jets 16 (Dolphins by 7)
Boy, it would be nice to have Ladanian Tomlinson and Lamar Smith on a fantasy team this week. Even if Zach Thomas leaves the game injured again this year, the Jets won’t be able to mount a fourth quarter comeback this time.
START: Lamar Smith, Curtis Martin, Dolphin Defense.

Broncos 28 at Seahawks 17 (Denver by 7 ½)
I’ve been eyeing this one for our stress pool, but divisional games scare me. Just ask the people who picked the Cardinals to lose last week why.
START: Greise, Rod Smith, Mike Anderson, Shaun Alexander.

Raiders 28 at Colts 31 (Colts by 3 ½)
Peyton and the gang will be fine thanks to a week off after the debacle in New England. I think this one may go into overtime. Just a hunch.
START: Manning, James, Harrison, Gannon, Rice, Tim Brown.

Redskins 9 at Cowboys 17 (Cowboys by 3)
The classic resistible force vs. the movable object. The sad thing is, I’ll still sit and watch the game.
START: Stephen Davis, Emmitt Smith.

Last Week: 8-7 straight up, 5-10 against the spread (ouch.)
Overall: 39-19 straight up, 29-29 against the spread.

2

Only one quibble. Remember that MNF Miami @ Jets game last year? This one’s gonna be much closer. Fielder will throw at least 2 INTs. I won’t bet this game either but I would favor either by more than 3.

Minor nitpick with Niners. They need to switch the balance of the offense back to passing to establish the run, not the other way around.

3

Not only that, but he seems to have passed the “lose your cool and make a stupid penalty which directly affects the outcome of the game at Tampa” torch to Billy Schroeder.

I still think the Pack can pull this one out. Favre got his first 3 INT game out of the way against the Bucs, so he probably won’t have another one (a 3 INT game I mean, not another INT) until they play at Minnesota. The Ravens are still mostly a passing team right now, and the Pack can let KGB loose all day.

4

preview is your friend

That should read:

I wouldn’t favor…

5

OK, so I’ve been in this pool this year where I need to pick 5 winners against the spread each week. Anyone who gets 5 right wins the pot, otherwise it rolls over. I had no idea how hard this would be!

This week is a serious gut check too. I’d have a touch time picking 5 games that will WIN let alone cover.

I’m not sold on the Ravens yet, but on paper I like that game this week. I feel the Bears, but I always try to avoid doing anything with the home team, and Superstar Plummer could show up at any given time. Haven’t been able to watch the 'Ain’ts yet this year, so I don;t have any idea how good they are. I’m convinced the Titan’s will regain their form eventually, but it seems like they have the most hellish schedule ever devised. I never like to trust the Queens. God, this is giving me an ulser.

Gazoo, I’m worried. I agree with nearly all your picks this week, including the scores against the spread. Its scary really. The only iffy ones are that I think the Bear’s D shows up big again, ergo blowing away the spread, and I think the Chiefs will beat the Steelers. However I’ve been wrong about the Steelers every week so far, when will Kordell blow up?

I need to be held.

6

Yeah, that sounds about right.

9 and 17? Redskins-Dallas? 9 should be Sonny, and 17 should be Billy Kilmer.

Back when men were real men, women were real women, and small furry creatures from Alpha Centauri were real small furry creatures from Alpha Centauri.

7

God bless Douglas Adams.

8

I’m glad I made my books before I looked at yours… spooky. I think one might be different but I will have to double check. Plus I never pick the Bucs so I am not so upset when they lose, even if I think that they are going to win. This cost me $50 in an office pool last week. Ack.

However, you do make some points which would have me adjust my confidence ratings. I’ll have to remember to check them again tomorrow.

Any idea if Eddie George will play this week?

9

According to cbssporstsline.com:

10

I can hear the MNF promo now…

“When you’re talking about the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys, you’re talking about a historic rivalry. A historic divisional rivalry that’s truly historic. Furthermore, these teams have dominated the league, combining for seven or eight Super Bowls. Sorry, it’s been a while so we forgot how many exactly, but there’s no doubt that both these teams have a history of success. And, being such a heated divisional rivalry, you can always count on a hard-fought contest. Which should feature…uh…lots or hard fighting. And dominating history. Yeah. Tonight, one of these teams will no longer be at the bottom of the…uh, will SHOOT OUT OF THE CEL…ah, forget it. Criminy, weren’t the Redskins supposed to be good this year??”

Hmm…no, on second thought, it’ll probably go more like this.

“For the past decade, the last word in Dallas running backs has been THIS MAN, Emmitt Smith. As part of the vaunted Aikman-Smith-Irvin triumvirate, he spearheaded a crushing ground attack en route to three Super Bowl championships. Now, in the twilight of his career, THIS MAN stands on the cusp of immortality. Two career records, rushing touchdowns and rushing yards, stand within reach. And tonight, THIS MAN takes another step toward those milestones. Yes, all eyes will certainly be on THIS MAN tonight. And he certainly won’t disappoint. One of the true greats of the game. Isn’t he something. Tonight, Emmitt Smith struts his stuff against a rush defense that’s given up more than 130 yards a game for the season, on ABC’s Monday Night Football!”

Don’t laugh. Isn’t this pretty much they did for Barry Sanders?

11

Fantasy players, here’s some recent notes:

-Chandler will start for the Falcons
-Marcus Robinson sat out part of practice with back ailments.
-Ron Dayne returned to practice.
-Eddie George is not looking like a good start.

And something I stumbled upon - The Broncos scored a defensive TD in both games against the Seahawks last year.

Another interesting stat I fell upon - The Ravens-Packers game pits the #1 defense and the #2 offense (yardage wise) from each conference against each other. Compare the teams they’ve played though.

Last one - Last year the Rams and Giants played. Rams were on te road and minus Faulk. Rams won. If you’re in a pool and have to pick one game, this is the one.

12

OK Gazoo, seems like I have a fantasy question for you every week, and I’d hate to let you down this week, so heregoes:

I have Ahman Green, who has been a stud, but I have a feeling that the Ravens are going to completely shut him down. I also have a (resurging?) Michael Pittman I could play against Chicago. Now the Bears are no pushover, but remeber that Pittman gained about 85 on the ground againts a really tough Philly D last week – nothing to sneeze at. Plus when he’s on his game he wil catch 6-8 passes a game

Who do you give the nod to? I really want to start Pittman, but I have a feeling I may kick myself if I leave Green on the bench.

13

I’m not a Gazoo, but I’ll jump in here to state the obvious - nobody runs on the Ravens. Also, Green seems to be on a downward spin right now; he hasn’t scored in either two or three consecutive games now.

Chicago D is no pushover, and probably under-rated, but if I had those two RBs I’d go w/ Pittman.

14

This is a really tough one (Glad I have Faulk and Tomlinson). Personally, I’d go with Ahman Green. You drafted him as a “stud” RB, and you can’t bench your studs. Big players have big plays in big games. He may not have a lot of yards on the ground, but don’t forget his value as a receiver as well.

15

Forgot to do this earlier, but for all the fantasy players out there, I’d check out http://www.footballguys.com and their message board. By far, this is the best fantasy advice website I’ve seen.

Oh, and it’s back to the drawing board on my statistical prediction model. It’s just not coming out right. Too much averaging is resulting in just that. Every score prediction is coming out average.

16

I have a bit of a confession to make…

I was glad to see that Lions’ receiver fail to get out of bounds and kill any chance of them winning the game. It’s so emblematic of how this team does year after year.

I hope they continue to get creamed. I want everyone in this organization to finally deal with the consequences of thier blunders. Rememeber, this was a team that had probably the most electrifying, game-busting, put-the-fear-of-Vince-Lombardi-in-defensive-coordinators running back ever, and they absolutely squandered him. The Lions managemeng could somehow never keep a good offensive line, never keep their best receivers, and (this was huge) never get even a decent quarterback. I’m talking Trent Dilver/Vinny Testaverde caliber here. Sheesh, when I think of what the 49ers management could’ve done with this team!

And then he just can’t take it anymore and calls it quits. Then, to show you how really messed up this team is, its record actually improves the following season. And then I have to listen to some complete garbage about how the team is “better” without Barry Sanders as a “distraction”. Or whatever.

Well, it took a while, but they’re finally getting stung. Even with Jimmy Stewart, who’s certainly a capable RB (and may actually be a better straight-ahead runner than Sanders was), and a defense that’s kept games close, they’re 0-4.

Will they finally learn? Will this season finally convince someone in this organization that the team needs serious help (like, say, a strong offensive line that doesn’t evaporate after half a season)? Stay tuned.

Unrelated comment…is is just me, or is almost no one looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender right now? The Bears look good, but they haven’t been tested yet. The Giants are slipping, and the schedule doesn’t get any easier from here. The Raven’s vaunted defense was humiliated today, so they’re still not a lock. Cincinnati? Cleveland? San Diego? Good early results, but still too soon to seriously consider them contenders. And of course, you have teams like the Jets and Dolphins and Titans and Jaguars, who seem to do everything but win the Super Bowl.

Maybe it’s just too early for predictions right now. (Hard luck, Gazoo…maybe next week. :slight_smile: ) Oh well, one of the good things about the NFL is that it always comes down to the final week.

17

I think I may let my beagle pick next week. He can’t do much worse.

18

What a bloodbath.

Gazoo, don’t take it too hard. Only 1 favorite covered and 2 teams pushed.

In the pool I mentioned above, where 28 players each pick 5 teams they expect to beat the spread each week, going into Monday there were only 25 correct picks out of 140. Thats under 18% correct (if Dallas covers it’ll come up to about 20%). In theory, if the spreads are all correct it should be 50-50, and since players can choose the 5 games they feel most comfortable with, it should improve the odds a bit. On the season (which has already been a screwy one) before this week, the league has been averaging 54% right. This week caught everyone by suprise, and the bookies in Vegas are having a field day.

Congrats on nailing that Chicago spread, I was pulling for the good guys to win big, but when it came down to picking my teams this week I began to agree with you. It just felt like a 7 point game the more I thought about it, luckily I avoided going with the home team this week. Of course the game I chose instead didn’t pan out, so go figure.

All I have to say is the pot rolled over, and I’m going to start researching my picks for week 6 today. Looks like I’ll be getting no work done this week!

19

The Steelers are in first place! :cool:

Just thought I’d gloat for a second since it very well might be the only time this year I can.

20

This year lacks serious consistency in most fantasy players.
Take Stephen Davis. Please. Or Eddie George- he’s been such an underachiever, I benched him this week. How about Jerry Rice? Bettors would get rich playing the opposite of my picks.

Are the Steelers real? So many flashes of greatness… but if they could just SCORE!