NFL Predictions - Week 5 (Bargaining)

Man, what the heck is Philly doing? I feel bad for anyone who put money on the Eagles.

Amusing play line of the day:
2-9-DEN 19 (2:00) M.Brunell pass incomplete. Officials Review of play Play Challenged by Review Assistant and REVERSED. M.Brunell up the middle to DEN 18 for 1 yard. PENALTY on WAS-M.Brunell, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 18.

I’m still trying to figure that one out.

Apparently I’d be better of if I were a compulsive gambler.

If any of you have the power to arrange these things, I’d like at least eleven (fantasy) points worth of kicking from Shayne Graham tonight. Thanks!

And, of course, right after my last post the Skins scored the late touch and blew the conversion to cover. Ah, well, 3-1 for today still wasn’t that bad - better than I thought I’d do, certainly.

Speaking of the Skins game (I still don’t get why they air the Philly/Dallas game here when Denver is closer by about 500 miles), I was keeping an eye on the game via NFL.com’s very lame play-by-play program, and have been wondering what happened on the muffed kick by Denver.

NFL.com showed that Denver muffed (sic) the catch and that Wash recovered, but the next update had Denver with the ball and driving.

I’m going to catch crap from my Bronco’s fan boss tomorrow too. This blows. If it weren’t for 2 completely unprecedented runs (unless you count that 34 yard scamper by Alexander last week… but, shut up) allowed by the Skin’s defense, the game would have been very different. Minus those 80+ yards, Denver didn’t even manage to gain 200 yards, and got less than 100 out of Plummer.

Blocked kick and a missed 2-point conversion. /sigh

I really wish you’d quit cursing my team.

Dude, I’m the grim fucking reaper for many many teams this year.

Yeah, we had the game completely in our grasp. Also, there was a 54 yard FG at the end of the first half that was called back because of a false start. Rather than attempt a 59 yarder, Gibbs opted to put Brunell back on the field for a hail mary. If that kick had stood, or we hadn’t had the other one blocked, the Redskins would have won. Or if that safety in the end zone had been upheld (@#$@# “tuck” rule. I HATE THAT DAMN RULE.)

Looks like I went 8-5 against the spread today. Not too shabby. Too lazy to compute the over / under.

What’ll it take to get you to pick against the Bucs for the remainder of the season?

Also, has anyone tallied how the spread picks went this week?

No doubt. Right about now, I’m loving the fact that he holds the New York market in such contempt.

I’ve clinched positive money for the week, but many loose ends are waiting to be tied up with tonight’s game, so no wrap up just yet. I did want to crow about one thing:

Ignoring over/unders, (where I went 1-5,) I went 10-0 against the spread on Sunday! Undefeated in picking teams through the night game…that may be a lifetime first.

Oh yeah, and lest I forget, the spread picker went 5-2 this week, which isn’t as impressive as 9-2 last week, but still solid. 14-4 so far on the season.

I had it at 4-3. It gave

NE W
Bills W
Ravens L
Houston L
Cowboys W
Rams L
Jets W

You have something different?

hehheh, the Houston Texans failed to cover; the Houston Oilers, OTOH, covered quite nicely. (Tennessee Titans, just for clarity’s sake, was a winning pick, whereas Houston was not a pick at all.)

I find it interesting that of the four total losses this season, two of them were Rams picks.

Houston was 1-2 ATS going into this week.

Titans were 2-2.

That makes Houston the pick.

Link

Looking back at last week’s thread to see if the other spread picker loss was the Ravens, (it wasn’t – the Vikings were the other loser,) I noticed cricetus’s picks at the end of the thread. He’s not participated in this one, likely because he is busy looking at foliage, but I thought I’d pull them up because he actually did pretty well:

Colors depicting wins and losses added by me.

So he’s 9-4 going into the MNF game, which ain’t too shabby.

Also, a final note: I was not 10-0 picking games; I picked the Bears, who did not cover. (I misread my sheet, mistaking the total points [30] for their score, which was only 10.)

Oh, sure, bring facts into it. I guess I know what I was thinking when I listed that upthread as a Titans pick. Yep, you are indeed correct: 4-3 this week. My bad. I’ll correct it in the roundup after tonight’s game.

Well, I made a slight improvement this week. Very very slight.

Went a whopping 6-8 against the spread and an impressive 11-3 versus the O/U. Of course I fell back to earth with a 1-4 in the pick 5.

This brings my grand total to 29-43-1 against the spreads, 22-18 versus the O/U, and 12-23 in the pick 5. My percentages look like the back of a baseball players card. At least I’m above the Mendoza line.

Lots of big injuries this week. Lost Deuce McAllister from my money league, and Big Ben went down tonight with an injury that looked very ACL-ish. Najeh Davenports stint in the starting lineup was successful but short due to a broken ankle. Detroit lost 4 WRs in that game, though none are serious. Derrick Blaylock is done for the year as are a pair of Altanta defenders.

Early Games
20 **BROWNS…3…**10 **Bears…**30 **36…**Bears cover, and keep it under.
52 **PACKERS…3…**3 **Saints…**55 **41…**Packers bust out big, but it stays under.
12 **Bucs…3½.**14 **JETS…**26 **31½…**Go Jets! Vinny plays well, covering the over.
31 **RAMS…3…**37 **Seahawks.**68 **49½…**Seahawks get revenge for the 0-3 last year. Under.
28 **FALCONS…2½.**31 **Patriots.**59 **43½…**Vick goes down and the Pats win outright.
20 **BILLS…2½.**14 **Dolphins.**34 **33½…**SUCKER BET! RUN AWAY!!!
35 **LIONS…1…**17 **Ravens…**52 **33…**Nothing looks good about this game. Nothing.
20 **TEXANS…3…**31 **Titans…**51 **40½…**Titans cover, along with the over.
Late Games
28 **Colts…15…**3 **49ERS…**31 **46½…**Rookie gets first start? Colts should cover.
24 **Panthers…2½.**20 **CARDS…**44 **43…**Home team underdogs scare me. Bet the over.
10 **Eagles…3…**33 **COWBOYS…**43 **44½…**Cowboys in the upset. Way over.
21 **BRONCOS…6½.**19 **Redskins.**40 **35…**Redskins keep it close but lose.
Night Games
23 **JAGUARS…2½.**20 **Bengals…**43 **37…**Jags too much for fading Bengals. Over.
22 **CHARGERS…3…**24 **Steelers.**46 **45…**Chargers are on fire. Points look like a push.

Spread Picker Picks
3 Bills WIN
2 Cowboys WIN
2 Jets WIN
2 Pats WIN
2 Rams Loss
2 Ravens Loss
1 Texans Loss (incorrectly listed as Titans in picks post)

The spread picker may have had a winning record at 4-3, but it was my gut picks that really shined this week. 7-4 in the early games, 4-1 in the afternoon, and 2-1 in the night games, for a combined 13-6 on the week. You have to make your money on the weeks that go your way…let’s see if I managed to do that.

Early Games
Risk 30 for 60 on the Jets & the Over
Risk 30 for 125 on the: Bills, Pats, & Ravens

Why am I down 60 instead of up 30? Because the Jets stay true to their “we can’t draft our way out of a paper bag” form and select the worst kicker ever with their first pick in the draft. Just pathetic. 7-4 in the early games, and I lose every bet.

Late Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a tease: Colts giving 7, Cowboys getting 11, Redskins getting 14½

The problem with teases, which I remembered around 6:30pm Sunday night, is that whenever I win them, I would have also won it as a straight up parlay. Winning 50 is nice and all, but when it should have been 250, it’s incredibly annoying. And when a three team pick loses, it’s more often than not by a single team getting blown out, which a tease wouldn’t have helped. (See the Ravens in the early triple parlay.) sigh Anyway, down 10 for the week so far.

Sunday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Jags & the Over

This one could be seen coming up the block; the Jags had simply been playing much better than the Bengals, and the over/under was in the thirties. With the added 60, now up 50 for the week.

Monday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Chargers & the Over

I was torn between the parlay and just a straight bet on the Chargers. Turns out it was a moot point. Monday night takes the edge off the winnings, but I remain up 20 for the week. Hey, stop laughing at me, this is the first winning week I’ve posted, so I’m happy about it.

[post=6649310]Standings[/post]
This week: 13-6, +20
Season: 32-40, -175
Spread Picker: 13-5

Forgot to update the standings against the spread, and since there is no new thread yet, cough, I thought I’d put it here:

4-1 Jags

3-1 Browns
3-1 Giants
3-1 Lions
3-1 Redskins
3-1 Steelers

3-2 Bengals
3-2 Colts
3-2 Falcons
3-2 Packers
3-2 Patriots
3-2 Seahawks
3-2 Titans

2-2 Bears
2-2-1 Broncos
2-2-1 Chargers
2-2 Chiefs
2-2 Dolphins
2-2 Raiders

2-3 Bills
2-3 Bucs
2-3 Cowboys
2-3 Eagles
2-3 49ers
2-3 Jets
2-3 Panthers
2-3 Saints

1-3 Ravens
1-3 Texans
1-3 Vikings

1-4 Cards
1-4 Rams