So I reduced all my bets by 4.76% rounded, to account for my extra hundred. I also forgot to include the odds on two of my spread bets, so I’ll just make a conservative estimate of 1.90, which is very likely below the actual payout.
Loss
$472 Chicago +3 1.909
$190 Philadelphia +10.5 1.90
$286 6 team 4.80
Minnesota +10.5, Chicago +10.5, Cleveland +11, Philadephia +18, Indy -2, NE +10
$381 4 team 2.85
Minnesota +10.5, Chicago +10.5, Cleveland +11, Philadelphia +18
There’s a totals page on pinnacle that lets you bet the total score each team will have, I’m gonna end up using that. I assume this can be parlayed because it’s intended to be a 50/50 bet. Obviously it can’t be teased.
Betting card 1
$300 Buffalo Under 17.5
Parlay
$200 7
Browns -3.5, Browns/Bills under 41, Buffalo under 17.5
Teasers
$400 6 team 7.5 points 4.8
Browns +4, Browns/Bills under 48.5, Philly +8.5, Broncos even, Texans +14, Atlanta -3
$200 9 team 10.5 points 5.6
Browns +7, Browns/Bills under 51.5, Philly +11.5, Broncos +3, Texans +17, Atlanta even, Den/Dal over 45.5, PHI/NYG over 42.5, New England +11.5
$200 – two team, 5-point teaser +103
Denver -2.5, Baltimore +7.5
First teaser for me. Gotta cross those 3s and 7s!
I kinda like those total sacks O/U props. It’s a single number, easy to get a handle a on and research, fun to theorize about how good the pass rushes have been and will be, etc.
Almost bet a shitload more on the SD/Oak over, but I looked up the pace stats for those teams and it turns out they’re the 1st and 3rd slowest teams in terms of situation-neutral offensive pace. Otherwise that total of 46 would be bananas.
This is a tangent, but I’m in Vegas today. Landed late last night and was late to get to the book this morning so my bets were made rapid fire. Here’s my real money bets for this week.
$50 Bears -1 vs. Saints - 110
$50 Lions +7 vs. Packers + 145
$100 Chiefs -2.5 vs. Titans -115
$100 Panthers -2 vs. Cardinals -125
The Bears bet was a hopeless homer pick, I’m in Vegas for a Bear game, I had to bet it. Knew I was probably burning money as I made it.
The Lions bet was one I felt good about until I heard Megatron was out, the problem is I knew this went I set my fantasy team 30 minutes before. In my haste I forgot and remembered as I was walking away. Shit. Still feel like I have a chance, the Lions pass rush is good.
The Chiefs bet I feel great about. Probably should have wagered more. Ditto the Panthers, but that’s tempered a little by the fact that I started DeAngelo Williams in about every fantasy league I’m in so I’m probably biased.
We’ll see…right now the Bears are very lucky to be down just 6, looks like a repeat of last week so far.
$200 – Buffalo +7 (Cin) -116
$100 – Tampa Bay (Phi) +1 +111
$150 – Tennessee +13.5 (@Sea) -113
$200 – St. Louis +7.5 (@Hou) -123
$150 – Arizona +11 (@SF) -117
$200 – Ten/Sea u40.5 -105
$200 – Pit/NYJ o41 -106
$250 – GB/Bal o48.5 -108
$150 – Cin/Buf o41.5 -103
$400 – NO/NE u50.5 -103
Gonna try a more balanced approach this week, since my best bets don’t seem to do any better than my other bets.
That said, my Shoe-In of the Week is definitely the Saints/Pats Under. They both still have reps as teams that score a lot and have weak-ish defenses, but both are a lot better at stopping opponents this year, and New England’s defense has actually been a lot better than its offense. Plus the game is outside, maybe NO’s offense is slowed a little.
$300 Buffalo Under 17.5
$200 7
Browns -3.5, Browns/Bills under 41, Buffalo under 17.5
$400 Carolina -3/Den Dallas over 56 3.64
$500 Teaser 10.5 points 7 team 3.8
Philly +9.5, Broncos +3, Texans +16.5, Atlanta +.5, Den/Dal over 45.5, PHI/NYG over 42, GB/DET over 41.5
$400 6 team 7.5 points 4.8
Browns +4, Browns/Bills under 48.5, Philly +8.5, Broncos even, Texans +14, Atlanta -3
$200 9 team 10.5 points 5.6
Browns +7, Browns/Bills under 51.5, Philly +11.5, Broncos +3, Texans +17, Atlanta even, Den/Dal over 45.5, PHI/NYG over 42.5, New England +11.5
Does anyone else always feel like the bets you win are due to your genuine understanding of the teams and the game, while the bets you lose are because you got unlucky, bounces of the ball and all that? For instance, my bet on the Pats/Saints under was right on, but I lost because the Patriots decided to go no huddle a lot for the first time this year so there was just more offense to go around. Most bets I lose I have a similar story to tell myself.
+$172 – $200 – Buffalo +7 (Cin) -116
-$100 – $100 – Tampa Bay (Phi) +1 +111
+$133 – $150 – Tennessee +13.5 (@Sea) -113
+$162 – $200 – St. Louis +7.5 (@Hou) -123
-$150 – $150 – Arizona +11 (@SF) -117
Some MNF props just to make the game interesting. It’s a sad fact that a Giants fan needs to do extra shit to make the game interesting, but there you go.
Did You Know that there’s been a score in the final 2:00 of the 1st Half in every Giants game and every Vikings game so far this year?
$100 – Min/NYG o47.5 -108
$100 – Total Sacks: Over 4 -108
$100 – Will either team score three unanswered times = Yes, -195
$100 – First score of the game = FG or Safety, +128
$200 – A score in the final 2:00 of the 1st Half = Yes, -290
$400 Denver -6, Denver/Ind over 57 3.64
$400 Baltimore ML 2.18
$800 Teaser +6.5 points 4 team 3.40
Baltimore +7.5, Denver +.5, Minnesota +10, KC even
[/QUOTE]
card 2
$400 3 team 5 point
Kc -2, den -1, rams +12.5
Net -2000.
Now at this point I could try to make more conservative bets, maybe stop digging myself deeper. Or I can go full blast into long shot parlay territory. I’m due. Law of averages*.
Week 8
$300 STL +11; DEN/WAS OVER 58.5 3.64
$200 STL +11; DEN/WAS OVER 58.5; OAK +1 7
$200 JAX +14.5; DEN/WAS OVER 58.5; CLE/KC over 38.5 7
$1100 Teaser 8.5 point
CLE +16; DEN/WAS OVER 50; OAK +9.5; STL +19.5; ATL +9.5, NO -2.5 4
Denver/Washington being like a 27-20 game completely kills me this week, but Denver hasn’t even been close as far as the over all season.
Some MNF props
-$100 – $100 – Min/NYG o47.5 -108
-$100 – $100 – Total Sacks: Over 4 -108
+$51 – $100 – Will either team score three unanswered times = Yes, -195
+$128 – $100 – First score of the game = FG or Safety, +128
-$200 – $200 – A score in the final 2:00 of the 1st Half = Yes, -290
