NFL Week 10 - Thursday Night Games Are Upon Us

The Game Room
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Sunday, Nov. 15

** NY JETS 7 Jacksonville 40½ **
This line seems way too high to me. Jacksonville has the best player in the field in MJD and the Jets are still without Jenkins in the middle. The Bye week will give Sanchez plenty of time to prepare and understand a vulnerable Jags pass defense and should allow him and Braylon to get more familiar. Still, the weather is going to start going south in the Meadowlands and the wind will be kicking up and we’ve yet to see what Sanchez does in the gloom. The forecast right now is mild for Sunday but maybe wet, it’s worth monitoring. The Jags have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball but I think they’ll be successful with the run all game long. In the last 3 games the Jags have played some terrible teams and weren’t particularly impressive in any of them, and that stinker in Seattle can’t be omitted. I’m under no misconceptions that the Jags are any good, especially on the road, but I’m not sold in the Jets without Washington, Jenkins and maybe Gholston giving a TD.

The Pick: Jets 17 - Jags 14

** Denver 3½ WASHINGTON 37 **
Yes, the Broncos aren’t nearly as good as people thought they were. I dabbled with the bandwagon reluctantly but the past two losses have cast a light on exactly what the Broncos are. Defensively they are legitimate. Offensively they are very limited. Orton can do certain things well, but he can’t do everything and the running game is nothing but smoke and mirrors. They have some talent and a solid special teams and they’ll reliably beat bad team, but aggressive defenses will drive them crazy and offenses that are big up front will control the middle of the field. The Redskins are neither of those things and they are mistake prone to boot. Compounding the issue is that Portis will be out of the game, and even though he’s slowed down a ton, he’s a reliable, calming anchor for this offense. Without him an implosion is very possible. Forget homefield advantage with the Skins, that crowd is waiting to turn on them.

The Pick: Broncos 21 - Redskins 6

** PITTSBURGH 7 Cincinnati 41½ **
Great, great game. Really hope this game is televised in Chicago this week. Perhaps the most amazing thing about this season to this point is that with a win this week the Bengals will be a home win over Cleveland from sweeping the entire AFC North. The Bengals will have swept the entire division including the Steelers and Ravens. Of course, this week will be no easy task and from a gambling perspective that TD is a bit insulting to the Bengals. The Bengals have a couple big holes this week though with the loss of Chris Henry and Roy Williams. Neither guy has been lighting it up but they are steady players and their replacements might introduce uncertainty and mistakes for Pittsburgh to exploit. If Keith Rivers can’t go that issue gets even worse. With wins over Minny and Denver the Steelers are finding their stride and honed against good teams, they are healthy and there aren’t a whole lot of questions. With Mendenhall becoming a force and Wallace emerging as another target mixed with a Polamalu at 100% the Bengals will have to do something special to compete.

The matchups to watch: Cedric Benson versus Rashard Mendenhall. Each has looked stellar and they have tough tasks ahead of them, if either reaches a 100 yards it’ll be a major accomplishment and might be decisive. Ben Roethlisberger versus Carson Palmer. I think Palmer is actually playing slightly better lately, his accuracy and timing have been impeccable. Ben relies more on improvisation and making things happen after the play breaks down and it’ll be critical that the Bengals limit this, thus far this season they have. Rey Maualuga versus Jerome Harrison. This isn’t a direct comparison because of the differences in scheme but each of these playmakers will need to step up. Harrison needs to continue being a terror in the backfield and force Palmer to move his feet on throws. The Bengals blocking has been good but this will be the toughest test. Maualuga really has to play the pass and run well, he needs to control Heath Miller and make sure he doesn’t run free in the middle and he must prevent both Ben and Rashard from escaping contain and moving the chains.

Pittsburgh probably tilts all these matchups a bit and they are healthier and playing at home and might need this win if they hope to win the division. The Bengals are playing with house money and will some breaks and big plays to have a chance. I want to be bold and pick the Bengals here but it just doesn’t add up, I’ll hedge and take the points though.

The Pick: Steelers 23 - Bengals 20

** TENNESSEE 7½ Buffalo 41 **
I know the Titans have played a couple good games lately and Chris Johnson is a beast, but are they really a TD+ favorite? Don’t drink the Vince Young Kool-aid. But…the Bills can’t stop the run at all and TO is expected to miss the game. Trent Edwards might be back and count me as one who considers that a bad thing. The Titans are getting a little healthier on defense and have I mentioned Chris Johnson? I’ve gone back and forth on this game a few times. I’m afraid to lay that many points on Vince (he’s averaging just 150 yards a game) but can the Bills really repeat the outcome from that Panthers game? Does Vince finally have that 3 pick game? I don’t think I’ll make that bet.

The Pick: Titans 20 - Bills 10

** MINNESOTA 16½ Detroit 47 **
How bad are the Lions…that is the question. The Vikes are winning this game, period. Last week was a gift for the Vikes with the entire division losing on their Bye and this week will be much the same with the Bears crapping the bed on TNF and the Packers looking ripe for an ass kicking at the hands of Dallas. Sigh… I think this is a classic AD highlight reel game and Favre is riding the pine before the start of the 4th.

The Pick: Vikings 35 - Lions 9

** New Orleans 13½ ST LOUIS 50 **
Maybe I should just copy and paste the previous preview here and call it a day. Eh, again the Saints are winning, the question is by how much. The difference here is that it’s in St Louis and Steven Jackson is going to have himself a day. Long story short the Rams are going to score some points, but there’s just no chance they can limit the Saints offense at all. They’ll definitely cover those two TDs and they’ll make the Dome in St. Lou look like Superdome North.

The Pick: Saints 48 - Rams 16

** Atlanta 1½ CAROLINA 43½ **
This is a pretty compelling game, divisional matchup that’s probably quite a bit closer in reality that it first appears on paper. The betting line seems to agree with that supposition. The Panthers were able to run wild on the Saints and not to sound like a broken record but they’ve rediscovered themselves. Of course it’s only fair to note that the Falcons and Turner seem to have made the same discovery. Injuries will play a important role in both circumstances as the Panthers are without their WLB and the Falcons are potentially without both DTs. Of the two the Falcons losses are more potentially damning. Delhomme for all his grief seems to have consistent success against the Falcons and Ryan has struggled regularly on the road this year. Will the latter trend continue against one of the best pass defenses in football, seems like a strong possibility and for as bad as the Panther rush defense has been the Falcons are nearly their equal. Really no outcome would surprise me in this game. If DeAngelo Williams is out come gametime I reserve the right to make a complete reversal.

The Pick: Panthers 26 - Falcons 24

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Nice work!

OK, pasting this:

*"PITTSBURGH 7 Cincinnati 41½
Great, great game. Really hope this game is televised in Chicago this week. Perhaps the most amazing thing about this season to this point is that with a win this week the Bengals will be a home win over Cleveland from sweeping the entire AFC North. The Bengals will have swept the entire division including the Steelers and Ravens. Of course, this week will be no easy task and from a gambling perspective that TD is a bit insulting to the Bengals. The Bengals have a couple big holes this week though with the loss of Chris Henry and Roy Williams. Neither guy has been lighting it up but they are steady players and their replacements might introduce uncertainty and mistakes for Pittsburgh to exploit. If Keith Rivers can’t go that issue gets even worse. With wins over Minny and Denver the Steelers are finding their stride and honed against good teams, they are healthy and there aren’t a whole lot of questions. With Mendenhall becoming a force and Wallace emerging as another target mixed with a Polamalu at 100% the Bengals will have to do something special to compete.

The matchups to watch: Cedric Benson versus Rashard Mendenhall. Each has looked stellar and they have tough tasks ahead of them, if either reaches a 100 yards it’ll be a major accomplishment and might be decisive. Ben Roethlisberger versus Carson Palmer. I think Palmer is actually playing slightly better lately, his accuracy and timing have been impeccable. Ben relies more on improvisation and making things happen after the play breaks down and it’ll be critical that the Bengals limit this, thus far this season they have. Rey Maualuga versus Jerome Harrison. This isn’t a direct comparison because of the differences in scheme but each of these playmakers will need to step up. Harrison needs to continue being a terror in the backfield and force Palmer to move his feet on throws. The Bengals blocking has been good but this will be the toughest test. Maualuga really has to play the pass and run well, he needs to control Heath Miller and make sure he doesn’t run free in the middle and he must prevent both Ben and Rashard from escaping contain and moving the chains.

Pittsburgh probably tilts all these matchups a bit and they are healthier and playing at home and might need this win if they hope to win the division. The Bengals are playing with house money and will some breaks and big plays to have a chance. I want to be bold and pick the Bengals here but it just doesn’t add up, I’ll hedge and take the points though.

The Pick: Steelers 23 - Bengals 20"*

I’ll just add that the loss of Henry might be a big deal, it might not. He hasn’t been playing much at all, but when he’s been in there, he’s made some nice plays. Putting Roy Williams on the IR sucks but he hasn’t played for weeks, Ndukwe has been doing a great job in his place, and he was the starter the last two seasons, so he’s comfortable. He isn’t the hitter Roy is, but he’s so much better in pass coverage (who isn’t, right?). It hurts the depth at safety more than anything.

Keith Rivers isn’t going to play and that concerns me quite a bit more. He isn’t flashy but is rock-solid. Fortunately, his backup is Brandon Johnson, who is a pretty damn good LB too. Again, depth is an issue if injuries occur in this game for the Bengals at the LB position.

I pretty much agree with everything else. It really could go either way. Both these teams are playing really well right now on both sides of the ball and are playing physical.

I think Ochocinco finally has a big game against the aging Ike Taylor and he makes the difference in the game for a narrow Bengals win. No score prediction.

Chad is due for a big game against the Steelers. He has rarely had them. Very rarely. And he knows it.

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The closest book to me has CIN +7.5 and I’m considering pawning all my worldly possessions to bet on that.

Sure, it’s in Pittsburgh, but in the Cin/Pit matchups of the last few years the away team actually fares quite a bit better.

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Those points are tempting, aren’t they? That’s a lot to give for two teams tied at 6-2 playing for the division lead in week nine.

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Risky. That Bengals defense just might end up looking really banged up by the second half. Say what you want about the Ravens D these days but they’ll still take their toll on an offense and going back-to-back against them and the Steelers should be draining. If it ends up being a shoot out do you really like the Bengals odds of keeping pace?

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Actually, due to the reason you mention (grinding out back to back games with physical teams like the Ravens and the Steelers, and the concurrent possibility of injuries happening…again), I would prefer a shootout, and I like the Bengals offense’s chances better than the Steelers in that scenario, even without Chris Henry, whom has always played well against the Steelers.

Its Chad that needs to play well (obviously with the unmentioned fact that the Bengals oline has to keep Palmer relatively clean, which they have done all year so far). Seriously, look up his stats against the Steelers. They are terrible. I say this time he breaks off a little something for the Steelers, and more specifically, Ike Taylor. I’m thinking we get at least two PI calls on Taylor trying to prevent touchdowns by intentionally interfering with Chad.

The refs also need to make sure they call the Steelers on their illegal contact bullshit they always try to get away with when they run WR screens out of that bunch formation of theirs.

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Ocho needs to have a game simply because the Bengals are pretty thin elsewhere. If CJ has a mediocre day can Coles and Caldwell get it done? Are they going to get much out of the TE? I think the answer to both is no. Even if CJ has a monster game, in a shootout he’ll need help regardless. In a low scoring affair a couple lucky bounces and one or two big plays from CJ and Benson will get it done, in a high scoring game those lucky bounces will tend to balance out. That doesn’t bode well for the Bengals in my opinion.

Don’t get over-confident in Palmer based on memories of his performance against the Bears. He was laser accurate and timely in that game and the Bears were utterly lost. The Steelers won’t make that mistake and Palmer won’t be perfect like that. Their best chances are a sloppy, slugfest with a couple big plays over the top and Benson and Mendenhall taking turns chewing up clock. If the Steelers score more than 28 points you’ll lose.

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Palmer has really spread the ball around a lot this season, so I’m not worried about Chad necessarily “carrying” the offense so much as just having a dramatic impact on it by playing at his highest level and keeping his head in the game.

Coles is a former #1 WR and is really coming along…remember, Palmer missed pretty much all of the preseason, Coles is new to the system…he’s going to start making bigger plays, too. Caldwell has been simply awesome. He’s been a clutch TD/1st down machine. Brian Leonard can catch the ball well out of the backfield on hot reads (and is the second-effort guy that converted the 4th and 10 on the drive to beat the Steelers in the last game).

We have options. We are going to also possibly have some untested x factor players in there like Bernard Scott at RB and Maurice Purify at WR.

Special teams are going to be HUGE in this game, and that is at least one area where the Steelers aren’t all that great, fortunately.

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But he’s Laverneus Coles…

I’m not hating on the Bengals guys, they have a group that can work, but when you line them up against Holmes, Ward, Wallace and Miller it’s a pretty huge drop off. Ocho kicks Holmes ass, at least this season he has, but you lose decisively on every other option. The Steelers haven’t given up more than 28 points all season and only 20+ 3 times. Hoping for a shootout is a bad idea.

They aren’t great but neither are you. Logan is the most impressive player in either group and he isn’t really frightening. In Heinz counting on Special Teams is a pretty thin string.

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What’s nice about having a Thursday game is you’re able to watch and scout your next opponent live in addition to tape. I’m sure the 49ers will be watching how the Green Bay defense handles Jason Witten.

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Have you ever looked at Coles’ career numbers? They are pretty damn good. I don’t know why you’d say something like “but he’s Laverneus Coles” as if somehow he has a bad reputation as a player or is somehow shitty.

Don’t underestimate Caldwell. As I mentioned, the guy can flat out play. He’s a 3rd rounder out of Florida now in his second year and his place in the offense is locked. He’s crucial. His importance to the Bengals is far more than is Wallace’s to the Steelers. Purify is going to open some eyes. The guy has been a standout on the practice squad, and he’s only there because there wasn’t room for him on the 52 man roster with all the good wideouts we already have.

My biggest disappointment is with the Bengals 2nd rounder from 2008, Jerome Simpson. The guy just doesn’t seem to “get it”, and as such, has yet to see the field (OK, he has one career catch).

I also think someone you never heard of, JP Foschi, is going to be a major contributor. He’s our TE (recall we lost both our starting TE’s in training camp) and he can really make plays for a guy that was selling meat door to door prior to us giving him a workout.

I really, really think there is something to this Bengals team that is more than meets the eye (kinda like Transformers). They are such a well-coached group of malcontents, overachievers, has-beens, retreads, etc…they are a team in every sense of the word, and they are playing like it. They have totally bought into the “live and die together” concept. Its awesome to see.

Anyway, tomorrow cannot get here fast enough.

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Have you guys hired John Kruk for the front office or something? :smiley:

So, I haven’t looked at the injury report before just now. Roy Williams being out is a non-factor for this match-up. Rivers is a bigger deal but for this time of year it’s still a pretty full line-up.

On our side of the ball there isn’t much on the injury front (not including the guys on IR of course). Travis Kirschke is out but we have good depth on the D-line. Ziggy Hood actually looked like Aaron Smith on a few plays last week; on one of the interceptions he broke a double-team and got pressure on the QB. He’s quick too for a big guy. I thought he’d look out of place as a 3-4 end since he was more of a gap penetrator in college but he’s adapted well.

The biggest thing for the Steelers is who’s in the line-up compared to the first meeting. Polamalu and Mendenhall. Mendenhall has been key to the passing game as much as the running game; picking up blitzes, making good reads from single back formations which allows them to go without a fullback. And Polamalu, what can you say? Last week he lined up deep on the strong side of the field and ran 50 yards from where he lined up to break up a pass to the weak flat. I think Lawrence Timmons is back but I like it better when they platoon him with Keyaron Fox anyway. Fox isn’t as dynamic but he makes good reads against the run.

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** MIAMI 10 Tampa Bay 43 **
This game is giving me trouble. I can’t get a read on it at all. Part of me wants to dismiss last weeks game against the Pack as a complete fluke and assume that Freeman will have a precipitous decline as teams get tape on him. Part of me thinks it could be part of the grand plan and he’ll gradually improve as his weapons get healthy. The Dolphins are equally confusing. The Wildcat has gotten a bit of ill deserved grief lately, people seem to think it’s a magic bullet that people “figure out”. That’s wrong. They are just a portion of the playbook and when teams adjust to it it opens something else up, and some teams match up against it. It’s not different than a team shutting down a successful screen game, deep passing game or inside run game there’s no reason to assume that the next opponent will repeat that. Still, the Dolphins pass coverage group is worrisome as is the ability of the WRs to give Henne a chance at all. I’m not sure that Freeman will challenge the former but the Bucs secondary is good enough to clamp down and generate some turnovers if he doesn’t get a little help. If that pass rush from last week reappears it could be real trouble, but that I think was a fluke against the Packers. One consistent trend is that powerful running games have given the Bucs fits and this could be one of the scariest around.

The Pick: Dolphins 27 - Buccaneers 16

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I think Polamalu is a fine player, one of the top two safeties in the league right now. I think Ed Reed is the other. I believe both players are on about equal footing talent-wise and that both serve similar purposes for their defenses/secondaries.

We beat the Ravens with Ed Reed twice, and that was with him having a pick 6 in the first game and forcing a Chad fumble, then forcing another Chad fumble in the second contest. I don’t think Polamalu will make that much of a difference, although I would say that he’s probably in a better situation than Ed Reed is, given that the quality of the Steelers defense as a whole is better than that of the Ravens so he gets a better supporting cast surrounding him.

Rivers being out sucks for sure, but Brandon Johnson is an awesome LB in his own right, but again…depth becomes an issue if we lose another LB to injury, Williams hasn’t played for weeks anyway, so no big deal there except for depth in case of injury at the safety position, and Henry…

…well, I think not having Chris Henry in this game blows for us. He really hasn’t played much at all this season (and many Bengals fans have been wondering why…I think its likely due to our commitment to the run this season and running less 3WR sets than we used to do), but when he’s been in there he’s made some big plays.

The biggest loss about Henry though is that he’s traditionally been a Steeler-killer. He almost always comes up with huge plays against them for whatever reason. Now we will have to find another way.

Not having Henry is exactly the reason why I think Ochocinco must come up big in this game. That, and because Chad traditionally has not played well against the Steelers at all, and I’m sure he’s aware of that fact and the enormity of this game.

Finally, our biggest advantage I can see? Our offensive line. Its playing really well right now, like a well-oiled machine whose sum is greater than its parts. No probowlers there, just grit, determination, technique and nastiness. That will be key: keeping Palmer from being hit or sacked too many times. Do that, and we can win, because we are going to have to throw the ball.

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Late Games
** OAKLAND 2 Kansas City 36½ **
This game is a bit of a pig but I have a hunch it’ll end up being a more interesting one than people suspect. The Chiefs with the addition of Chambers and getting healthier on the line could start being a productive passing team in the short term and I think dumping LJ in favor Charles could improve Cassel’s ability to run screens and check downs. They have a tough task with Nnamdi out there, but he can only shut down Bowe or Chambers, the other guy could flourish. The Raiders also have a poor run defense and while the Chiefs run game is unproven at best it could manage some success. The Raiders get Gallery and McFadden back and coming off a Bye meaning this could be one of their better offensive performances of the season. The decisive factor will be the Raiders pass rush versus the Chiefs protection, if they get pressure and sacks the Raiders win, if not they’ll get out scored.

The Pick: Raiders 24 - Chiefs 20

** ARIZONA 8½ Seattle 47 **
This is a really big game. It’ll be overshadowed by the other marquee matchups but this one is key in the NFC playoff picture. The Cards are feeling good coming off the whipping of my Bears but they’ve been shaky at home and have been up and down all season. If they can take care of business here they’ll be able to button up the West but with a loss the Seahawks are right back in the hunt with the Niners sniffing around as well. If the Cards stick with the run and stay balanced they’ll win this game going away, if they try to get cute again and let the Seahawks zone blitz or go UFO Warner will make mistakes again. Boldin is back and will be screaming for the ball so that might indicate a few more passing plays than they’d like. The Seahawks need to find consistency on offense, Housh needs to step up and Hasselbeck can’t afford to make mistakes. Most critically they need to run the ball better than they have a tough task against this D. On paper everything points to a big Cards win but my gut says this is a letdown game and classic Cardinal WTF performance. They’ll get a little too placid and full of themselves and the Seahawks steal one.

The Pick: Seahawks 27 - Cardinals 26

** SAN DIEGO 1 Philadelphia 47 **
Another quality matchup and probably the one that’s generated the most varied opinions and predictions from the analysts and gamblers. Both teams generate a ton of distrust and both have the potential to explode in any given week. No one has a clue which McNabb shows up. No one knows if Reid will call any running plays. No one knows if LDT will be able to average more than 2 yards a carry. No one knows if the Chargers defense will give up 400 yards in the air. The one player in the game who I don’t question is Philip Rivers. He’ll do everything he needs to do to keep the Chargers in the game and if McNabb gags it’ll be a blowout. Worst case scenario it’s a shootout and I like my chances with the Chargers at home.

The Pick: Chargers 30 - Eagles 23

** Dallas 3 GREEN BAY 47½ **
Well, the petulant Bears fan in me is hoping for a huge Cowboys blowout in this game. Frankly considering the way the two teams have been playing lately that’s a really, really generous spread in the Packs favor. I suppose they are getting some Lambeau love but the weather will be pretty mild for the game removing part of the impact. The Cowboys pass rush is potent and has been really impressive over the last couple weeks and there’s been more than enough attention paid to the Packers issues with that. The Cowboys offense isn’t going to be stopped, even if the Packers defense holds up the Cowboys will get theirs. The initially positive results from the scheme chance seems to be degrading with players grumbling about not being used properly and if they can’t step up and stifle the Cowboys 3 headed RBBC it will be a very long day. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that the Cowboys are merely average on the ground but the Packers will still probably need 28 points to win this game. I don’t see Rodgers staying vertical long enough to create that many points.

The Pick: Cowboys 28 - Packers 23

** INDIANAPOLIS 3 New England 49½ **
And here’s the game of the week. Normally the hype monster annoys the hell out of me, but with Favre stealing the spotlight and the Saints emerging it seems that the Colts and Pats have been fairly quiet this season. That does nothing to lessen how exciting and important this game will be. Manning vs. Brady is going to be fantastic with a couple new twists: Brady needing to prove he’s 100%. Peyton needing to prove he can do it with a new group of WRs. Manning has been almost unstoppable under the bright lights and you know he’s been grinding for weeks on this one, he won’t be surprised by anything this mediocre Pats defense does. The Colts should have Donald Brown back and they desperately need him at close to full strength if they are going to have any balance this week, and that balance will be critical. The Pats are best when the run the ball as well, but with all the injuries in the Colts secondary I’m not sure that it’s going to make all that much difference. Peyton is going to have to put up a ton of points because Moss and Welker are going nuts on that secondary. Unless Freeney and the pass rush can force Brady to rush and shorten the routes the Pats will just score too much for the Colts to keep up.

The Pick: Patriots 33 - Colts 30

Monday, Nov. 16

** Baltimore 10½ CLEVELAND 40 **
This game is a bummer and we get to watch it on Monday Night, whoopie. How low can the ratings go? If you need to take the missus out for dinner to prove you don’t love football more than her this is the night to do it. She won’t have a clue. Ray Rice is going to have a field day and hopefully win me my money league all by himself.

The Pick: Ravens 40 - Browns 0

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Prediction: James Harrison WILL be held. :smiley:

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Wow, I’m picking against every one of your win loss predictions (except the Ravens game). I think the Colts win, the Packers win, the Eagles win, the Cards win and the Chiefs win.

And I think the Browns manage at least one score…do you really think they’ll be shut out?

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I decided that it just didn’t matter.

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Well you’re absolutely right on that count, with apologies to Mr Beef. I guess I just wrongly assumed you were going for deadly accuracy in the score predictions!
:smiley:

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On a browns forum I post in, someone posted a weekly baltimore newspaper set of predictions from their sportswriters. They were all like 36-13, 40-10, 33-14 type numbers.

The almost universal reaction is “they all have us putting up double digit points? Idiots”

Life would be easier if I was a big enough pussy to be a front running bandwagon fan.