I agree with this, there is no practical difference between batting it down and intercepting it at that point in the game.
Let me edit myself a little then. In the first half they seemed to run the ball pretty effectively, not outstanding, but effectively. Of course I am worried, we don’t have Aaron Rodgers, but I also do not think it is a lost cause. The Giants are tough, but the Vikings actually rank pretty much even with Philly in Rush defense. Am I saying we are good to go and everything is fine. No, but that game could have been a disaster, like the Cowboys on Sunday night level disaster, but not for a lucky bounce for Desean Jackson and a few near misses for the Packers it might have been a different outcome.
If he batted it down, the Bucs could have kicked a field goal with ~8 seconds left instead of having people run around with the ball. I don’t blame Revis, though; he made an instinctive play. Plus he owned that game.
Two things; I believe the jist of Robot Arm’s post and my assessment is that at that point it wasn’t necessarily critical to a win but it is dumb on 4th down as you’re falling far downfield to hang on to an errant pass. You cost your team field position equal to the length of a Hail Mary toss and the Bucs did then have to use all their downs and even have Glennon run a bit at the end of the last to expend the remainder of the clock. Why not manage that from 40 or 50 yards further up the field?
Two, it was mentioned only to explain Gruden’s reason for a melodramatic description of a fairly routine play that actually could have been executed smarter. He’s patting himself on the back by making it fit what he called for before.
Still, Revis gets a pic, the Bucs win and in the end it’s a moot point.
<Joey Tribbiani> Don’t you mean “moo point?” Like a point cows make.<Joey Tribbiani>
I contest that it could have been executed smarter. Field position did not matter. Having the QB/RB run around a little on each snap before taking the knee is much better than kicking the field goal with 6 left - the field goal can be blocked, the ensuing kickoff could be run back for a touchdown (which would have been game-winning.) It’s absolutely best to run out the clock in that situation, and field position didn’t make a lick of difference.
There’s different levels of situational awareness you can have here if you’re Revis:
- None: the ball’s in the air, so try to intercept it.
- It’s 4th down; intercepting a ball is likely to result in worse field position.
- It’s 4th down, but field position doesn’t matter.
I think you’re assuming he’s at awareness level 1, and if he’d up his game to level 2, that’d be better. But for all you know he’s at level 3, and understood and executed optimally. (If he really were at level 1 there, I’d say he got lucky, and [were I a Bucs coach] coach him to be more aware in the future.)
As for Gruden, I don’t know exactly what he said before, but if he was congratulating Revis on closing strongly, I think he’s totally on-point.
Ed Reed’s been cut. This has been a developing disappointment and it doesn’t come as much surprise that one or more parties brought an end to it.
I disagree that field position was irrelevant. If the Bucs were in kneel-down mode, then yeah, it’s 99.999% irrelevant. Only a bobbled snap during the kneeldown phase could matter, and then only if the defense somehow recovers.
BUT, and this is a big but, there was too much time on the clock to start kneeling. That means the Bucs had to snap it, hand it off, and try to run. And that opens up opportunities to bobble the snap, bobble the hand off, fumble by QB or RB, and so on. And this is a rookie QB in his 2rd game and a 3rd string RB thrust into his first game. Fumbles are reasonably likely. If the Bucs fumble on the Dolphins 5 yard line, it’s not that big of a deal, but where Revis intercepted, that was close to field goal range.
All that said, I can’t fault Revis for locking on to the pick, which is the correct play in nearly every situation. And it’s true that it’s unlikely to matter, but that’s not the same as impossible to matter.
This is a fair point. However, given that we actually had a game fail to end this week because the defensive player failed to successfully bat down a pass, how does the risk you outline compare against the risk of a failed batted pass vs. a failed interception? Complicated question, and I have no idea. But if a player is more likely to be successful attempting to intercept than bat in this scenario (where success doesn’t mean he actually intercepts, just that the pass is not completed), it could still have been the right play even given your risk scenario.
He doesn’t have to bat it down. All he has to do is fail to secure it as he goes to the ground.
I’d also argue that Ihedigbo wasn’t trying to bat down the ball and failed (I don’t think you typically bat the ball down by moving upward with your arm). It seems to me he was trying to intercept it and failed. This lends yet one more thing that could go wrong by trying to intercept it, he could have bobbled the interception and a Dolphin could have caught the rebound.
Either way the point is really that it wasn’t a big really that big of a blunder that he intercepted it. Certainly not worthy of criticism, IMO.
Interceptions look good on one’s resumé, batting a ball down is a non-stat.
It doesn’t count as a pass defensed for a DB?
If they study the tapes. I guess you would be kind of stupid to sign a back without a bit of research.
Passes Defended is an official stat, as easily looked up as Interceptions. (“PD” here, for example.)
A bit of a tangent, but Football Outsiders noted in one of their books that, as a stat, Passes Defended suffers from a lot of subjectivity in its recording. Exactly what qualifies as a pass defended? There are different official scorers for each home stadium in the NFL, and they all have different standards. Some only hand them out if a defended swats away a ball that would clearly otherwise be a catch, others are a bit more liberal (making contact with the receiver as the ball arrives and knocking it loose, say). I don’t know if it’s still the case, but apparently the official scorer in Philadelphia caused FO endless headaches. For years, he would credit a DB with a pass defended merely for being in coverage on an incomplete pass, even if the pass was nowhere in his vicinity, which led to a ton of inflation for any games played in Philly.
So, anyway, it’s an official stat, but it’s kinda subjective (much like Tackles, which until recently was only kept unofficially, largely for that reason).
I think he was attempting to bat it down, not pick it. He was jumping, so his arm was moving up, but he was moving his hand down at the same time. He mistimed it, though, so it ended up bouncing the ball upwards.
Just for fun, the Advanced NFL Stats Win Probability Calculator places the win probability with the interception at 94% and without at 95%.
Is no one starting the Week 11 thread, or did I just miss it?