Let’s just jump right in.
Sunday, Nov. 1
Early Games
** BALTIMORE RAVENS 3½ Denver Broncos 41½ **
Big matchup in the AFC, a potential AFC playoff preview, and still it’s nearly a must win for the Ravens who don’t want to fall below .500 and don’t want to slip 3 games behind the division leaders. I, like most people, still think this Ravens team is a playoff team and a loss here puts them in a bad position to even claim a wild card. I think Denver is going to have quite a hard time running the ball against the Ravens front. The Ravens have been beaten through the air much of the season and it’s been strong armed downfield passers that have generated the most trouble for this defense. I’m not entirely convinced that Orton’s quasi-spread system will be quite the threat to the CBs that Favre, Palmer and Brady were. Still, I don’t think the Ravens can cover Marshall all day long but will they be able to sustain drives. The Ravens D is no longer elite but I think this will be the best the Broncos will face since Week 1. On the other side of the ball the matchup is equally difficult for the offense, with Dumervil getting to feast on the rookie Oher all day long. I expect Flacco to be running for his life and I don’t think Mason will be open all day long with Bailey shutting him down. For the Ravens to have a chance they need to rededicate to the running game but they are facing a team that’s basically shut down Dallas, Cincy and San Diego’s running games. Both team are coming fresh out of the Bye and you can be assured that they’ll have good gameplans in place. I think the Broncos have the edge at a few key spots that will make the difference.
The Pick: Broncos 21 - Ravens 20
** CHICAGO BEARS 13 Cleveland Browns 40 **
This game is a HUGE one for the Bears, it’s ridiculous that it is, but that’s the position they’ve put themselves in. Frankly a win alone won’t do the job, they’ll be under a ton of heat if this game is within the spread. Last week was an embarrassment on all levels and everyone seems baffled as to what changed. They are making some long overdue roster moves by dumping Omiyale for last years starter Beekman and flip flopping Hillenmeyer and Roach again on the D. Beekman should pay immediate dividends in both the running game and pass protection, I expect to see a dramatic change in the amount of penetration surrendered on the left side. This might be the final chance Pace gets to start as well, if he has another poor game expect Shaffer to get onto the field at either the left or right side. Cleveland is a terrible team that’s given up a ton of rushing yardage each week, and the retooled line and Forte absolutely must dominate that phase of the game. They could probably win on Cutler’s arm if they had to, but this team needs to build some balance this week. Defensively we’re a much better team than we showed last week, but it appears that the effort we saw over the first 4 weeks was largely a mirage. Lucky for the Bears Cleveland doesn’t do anything particularly well on offense and while the O line is pretty solid they Bears will still be able to generate just enough pressure to force mistakes and shut down the run. St Clair could be in for a long day against his former practice opponents. If the Bears can force a draw in special teams this should be a blow out. If it’s not the wolves will be howling.
The Pick: Bears 34 - Browns 13
** Houston Texans 3½ BUFFALO BILLS 41½ **
Are the Bills a decent team or are they a team that’s have a decent schedule? They got whipped last week in every category as I predicted but Delhomme committed so many turnovers that it was a Bills blowout anyways. The Bills running game has been pretty formidable and has bailed out their passing attack a bit but the Texans run defense has been pretty good recently. The Bills pass defense has been surprisingly good and with Andre Johnson potentially out it could be a unusually low scoring affair for the Texans. Owen Daniels has become an elite TE and if he goes off again the Bills will be in trouble, but with a cold and wet forecast the it could be a game decided on the ground. We will find out if the Texans are for real or if this will be another 8-8 year, good teams handle their business in games like this. I have a hunch they won’t if Johnson is out.
The Pick: Bills 17 - Texans 16
** INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 12 San Francisco 49ers 44 **
How about Crabtree coming up with a impressive first game last week, maybe… just maybe, my drafting him as a keeper in He Hate Me could be a stroke of genius. That’s a big spread over a team that’s played pretty well defensively for most of the season and seemed to find a groove last week with Smith at the helm. The Colts will be without Donald Brown putting the bulk of the load on Addai and Mike Hart to keep this offense balanced, the Colts got Sanders back last week and this week he’ll be critical to contain the emerging Vernon Davis in the middle. The Colts defense has been almost as scary as the Colts offense and with Frank Gore still not back in his groove the 49ers will be hard pressed to sustain an attack that will rival Peyton on the road. Still, 12 points feels like too many even in the dome.
The Pick: Colts 24 - 49ers 14
** NEW YORK JETS 3½ Miami Dolphins 40½ **
Rematch of the embarrassment in Miami 3 weeks ago and this time the Jets are going to be without Leon Washington. Since Miami the Jets seem to have gotten back to using the run and have stopped forcing the ball to Edwards which will help them here even without Washington, Green looked great last week in Oakland and I don’t think there’ll be much drop off in the running game. Special Teams are a different story though. I suspect that the Jets will make some adjustments to the Wildcat but overall I think offensively the Dolphins will have another good game. I don’t expect them to be nearly as flawless, especially in the cold of Jersey, but Ryan’s frustration will continue. Two other injuries will be critical with Will Allen out leaving a rookie to cover Edwards and with Jenkins out in the middle of the Jets D. Jenkins is the one that will be decisive, the Dolphins were already a scary running team and the Jets simply couldn’t afford to get softer in the middle.
The Pick: Dolphins 20 - Jets 16
** DETROIT LIONS 4 ST Louis Rams N/A**
What a pig of a game this is. Yet I find myself morbidly curious to watch it. Pretty much everyone thinks the Rams are the worst team in football, but I’m no longer convinced that’s the case. It’s still unclear if Stafford or Megatron will be back on the field and I suspect neither will be, most of the talk from Motown seems to be of the cautious type. Coming out of the Bye it will be interesting to see if Detroit puts together a effective gameplan or if they look as inept as they did in Green Bay. The reason I expect the Rams to play better is because Steven Jackson seems to be almost unstoppable between the 20s and the Rams issues in the red zone and with turnovers simply cannot continue by odds alone. The Lions allowed big rushing performances to two subpar backs in Grant and Forte and I think Jackson puts together an impressive game, this is the week he wins a game all by himself.
The Pick: Rams 17 - Lions 16
More to come later…
