NFL Week 13

Cafe Society
1

I’m going to list the most common lines I see from various sources.

Thursday:

GB +6.5 @ DAL 51.5

Sunday

1pm
BUF +5.5 @ WAS 37
DET +3.5 @ MIN 45
HOU +4 @ TEN 42.5
JAC +7 @ IND 45
NYJ +1 @ MIA 38
SDC -6 @ KC 37.5
SEA +3 @ PHI 42
SF +3 @ CAR 42

4pm
TAM +3 @ NO 42
CLE -1 @ ARI 51.5
DEN -3.5 @ OAK 42
NYG -2 @ CHI 42.5

8:30
CIN +7 @ Pit 46

Monday
NE -21 @ BAL 51

Bets I like:
GB + 6.5. I like GB to win straight up and I’m considering putting a bet down on the money line although my book is offering a crappy +220. My book’s offering even money on the spread for GB though, looks like all the money is going Dallas’ way.

Det +3.5. Peterson sounds like he’ll be back but it sounds too soon. Minnesota’s performance last week says more about Eli Manning than their pass defense. On the other hand, Peterson is Peterson and Detroit sucks on the road so maybe I just talked myself out of this one.

Jacksonville +7. I’d feel much more comfortable taking Jacksonville at home, but the Colts are limping along while Jacksonville is getting hot again. Working against Jacksonville is the Colts’ extra time to prepare. Still, I think this will be a close one so I take the team getting a touchdown.

SF +3. Carolina seems like a team that’s just giving up, whereas SFO was fiesty last week. I think I like the under (42)

Tampa +3. I’m taking a lot of underdogs this week, aren’t I? Tampa is a better team than the inconsistent Saints, but I’d only bet this if Garcia is going to be healthy.

Cle -1. Arizona is a bit scary coming off a tough, embarassing loss, and they’ve been good at home. But Cleveland is the better team. Arizona’s secondary is banged up - Adrian Wilson and Jeremy Green are probably going to be out, which leaves Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow having big days. Cleveland’s defense is showing vague hints of belonging in the NFL. I like the over, too. (51.5)

Denver -3.5. Oakland is horrible against AFC west opponents. Denver is inconsistent, but has to step up now if they want a shot at the AFC west.

NE -21. Baltimore might not win another game this year. I want Miami to lose tomorrow so that they’re still hungry for their first win when they play Baltimore. Their pass defense is overrated and Brady goes back to throwing 3+ TDs.

2

I’ve made some picks, but it’s a tough week. I’m not comfortable with most of them.

3

Can any Arizona fans tell me where Ralph Brown fits on your depth chart? We had to put up with the services of Mr. Brown a year ago, so I’m curious where he’s going to line up. Will he be the nickel? If so, will he be lining up inside or outside on 3+ receiver sets?

4

Where is everybody?

I’ll take Dallas for the win over the Pack. Sports bars should do pretty well tonight.

5

They’re all out bitchin about banner ads :smiley:

You really think Dallas will take it tonight? That’s what I fear. Especially with KGB out.

And yes, my local sports bar will be selling a few extra pitchers tonight.

6

Both teams will likely throw pretty well, but Dallas can control the game with the run and strike with some play action. I also have a feeling Witten will have a good game.

However, despite what ESPN thinks, it’s not Farve vs. Romo that scares me; Farve vs. Roy Williams does.

7

Hey Bearflag, you gonna watch the game at home or are you going out?

8

out. There’s a bar 2 blocks from me.

9

Yeah, I am hitting up a place in Fair Oaks area that always has a nice Cowboys and Packers contingent.

10

Cool. The wife & I will be rooting for our 'Boys.

11

Definitely rooting for the Boys tonight. On the 50-50 chance that my Saints make it to the playoffs, I like our chances better in Dallas than at Lambeau. I’d say we did pretty well in Dallas last season.

On that note, Josh Bullocks and Jason David are garbage.

12

Well, except that Sean Peyton doesn’t have Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett pegged.

13

Question for sports bettors out there.

The site I play on has true odds parlays. Rather than having fixed payouts, they multiply the odds of each bet together to determine the payout. Cool, actually - it means that if a line has moved to be better than -105 or -110, it’s reflected in the bet… you can also mix in money line bets into the parlay.

But they also do something I’ve never seen before - you can’t make highly correlated parlays. For example, if a team is favored by 15 and the over/under is 35, they won’t let you take the favorite and the over - the bet is rejected when you try to place it. Logic being that in order for a team to cover 15, there’s probably enough scoring in the game to be over 35, so you’re more likely to win that parlay.

My question was just if this is typical of any sports books, and for that matter if others do the true odds thing.

14

I’ve never heard of either, but then again I haven’t placed an actual sports bet in over 10 years.

15

I’m guessing it’s an online thing - it’s easy for them to calculate custom parlays for you, but I’ve only bet in 2 online books and I can’t remember how the first did it.

I’ve started to check wagerline.com 's consensus and expert picks and they’ve been a decent indicator. I was surprised to see that with a line of NE -20.5, only 56.86% of wagerline pickers picked NE.

To me, this seems like such an obvious pick. Ravens are in full implosion, and while their run defense is still formidable, their pass defense really isn’t. And the Patriots pretty much only pass. The Pats are coming off a game in which they had enough of a scare to be refocused and ready to demolish a team.

I don’t see Balitmore scoring more than 10, and I don’t see the Patriots scoring less than 30. Seems like an easy game to me.

Am I going wrong somewhere? I was considering putting up substantial money on NE.

16

The Pats will cover the spread, but the Ravens will have so much trouble scoring that the game won’t reach the points total. It’s going to be that ugly.

17

I use a live bookie and an on-line sportsbook. My sportsbook has never rejected the type of parlay you are describing. Last night, I put $60 on Dallas to cover and the over to hit. I don’t remember the exact payout (and I can’t check it from work), but I definitley got paid off as a valid bet.

(And I do like NE to cover and the over for Monday’s game.)

18

How about the Redskins?

I think they are going to come out fired up ready to rally around their fallen teammate. If nothing else after this week, I think they’ll embrace the diversion that the game will provide on Sunday and that they will crush the lowly Bills who aren’t even at full strength.

I’m not trying to capitalize on tragedy but if the spread is only 5.5 points to Buffalo, this one seems likes a sure thing.

19

That’s how I see it. I have read others say the Skins will be in the shitter and will lose, but I think the opposite is more likely.

RIP Taylor

20

It’s hard to get a read on the Redskins game. I’m local, and the papers all talk about how discombobulated the players are. Especially the Miami folks (Portis and Moss). This could go either way. Either they step up and crush the Bills (“win one for Sean”), or their heads just aren’t in it and they get beat. I don;t know how the Skins will respond. I know how they’d *like * to respond, but emtoion can only take you so far and has a way of petering out in the second half. Something that Washington already has a problem with (is there a worse second-half team in the NFL this year?). As a bettor, I’m staying away from this one.