NFL Week 5

[Quercus]

@AbloyProtec

I told you that Mike Vick gives up anytime the situation gets tough, and you mocked me.

I told you. Trust me, I witnessed it MULTIPLE TIMES, and because of the Eagles no less, in Atlanta.

Yes, if only Vick hadn’t “given up” and let the ball bounce off his receivers’ hands and right into defensive backs (see, that would never happen to a real winner like, say, Tom Brady). And you know, if Vick just had more BrettFavre-ish un-giving-up-iness, I bet his offensive line would have given him more time in the pocket. Of course, I’m sure it was Vick’s call to punt from THE OTHER TEAM"S FRIKKEN’ 35 YARD LINE!* That’s the kind of giving up that can really be pinned solely on Vick, I think. It’s also too bad the Eagles have Vick coaching the D-line on how to give up offsides penalties; I bet if someone less giving-up-ish had been coaching, the Eagles would have won. :rolleyes:

• Really, can anyone defend this? Or conversely, can anyone do a rough EV calculation for a generic team for this, so we can see exactly how bad it is? I mean, even a slim chance a a FG has to be better than turning the ball over with most likely a 15 yard net gain, right, and the value of converting a fourth down here has to be huge.

I’m sure there have been worse decisions, but it’s hard to think of one that doesn’t involve severe time pressure.

[SanDiegoTim]

If McCasky had even the slightest desire to field a consistently competitive team he’d be embarrassed to show his face in public. Why any self-respecting head coach would ever go to work for him is beyond me. I guess that’s why he doesn’t have one.

[borschevsky]

@Quercus

• Really, can anyone defend this? Or conversely, can anyone do a rough EV calculation for a generic team for this, so we can see exactly how bad it is? I mean, even a slim chance a a FG has to be better than turning the ball over with most likely a 15 yard net gain, right, and the value of converting a fourth down here has to be huge.

I’m sure there have been worse decisions, but it’s hard to think of one that doesn’t involve severe time pressure.

Advanced NFL Stats did an analysis on this. Their break-even point for punt vs. FG is the 37 (see the chart on p4 of that article), so that says to try the FG rather than punt from the 35. They also recommend going for it if it’s 4th and 10 or better.

About last night’s game, I wasn’t watching closely so I could be wrong, but were the Bears being extremely casual on their last drive? It seemed like they were wasting a good 5 seconds per play. Also, shouldn’t they kick a FG there with about 20 seconds left? Not that it makes a huge difference, since they basically need a miracle either way, but they could at least give it a try.