It turns out that the 2013 first round pick is only if the Raiders make the AFC Championship game, which would mean it is a low, low first round pick. It really comes down to how valuable you think first round picks truly are and how good you think Palmer will be, time will tell. This is nowhere near as bad as the trade the Falcons made to acquire Julio Jones.
Hell, a first and a second were a lot more than other teams had offered, according to some reports I’d read.
I think the Raiders overpaid, but I don’t think it is as egregious as others seem to think. One guy on the radio this morning said it was one of the worst trades ever.
If the Raiders make, and then lose, the AFC title game on some fluke and then Palmer gets hurt and/or the Raiders crater in 2012 leading to a top 5 pick it’ll be pretty bad. And let’s face, it how unlikely is it that the Raiders will crater? How unlikely is it that they make the AFC title game in that division on a year when the Colts suck, the Jets are imploding and the Steelers couldn’t block me. Especially if the Ravens and Pats face each other in the other game and the Texans pull a classic steal defeat from the jaws of victory type game against the Raiders in the divisional round.
Had it been 1 first rounder then it’s a defensible move, though you better be real sure that Palmer is good to go for at least the next 4 years. If it ends up being 2 of them it’s a catastrophe because of Palmer’s age.
Well sure the trade could end up blowing up in their face, it could also turn out to be the trade that turns them into a contender. Palmer stays healthy, his experience helps bring along the receivers, they add a couple of pieces, McFadden is a stud and they actually get to a Super Bowl, maybe win. Meanwhile the low first round draft picks the Bengals have turn into busts.
Palmer is pretty much the same age as Michael Vick, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees, younger than Brady and Manning.
Yes it is a risk, and yes they probably paid too much, but I think it might work out for the Raiders.
Yes, that’s possible. You can construct the same sort of “possible” narrative for any team in the league. The question is how likely those scenarios are.
Were I the Raiders, I wouldn’t trade a single #1 for either of them. Or a #2.
These are three HOF quarterbacks, who have each turned in 8-10 seasons that are better than anything Palmer has done in years. There’s no point in mentioning them in the same conversation … having said that, if I had the team the Raiders have right now, I still would hesitate before dealing two #1s for Brees or Brady, and given the injury, I’d say no to paying that much for Manning.
It’s not “worst trade ever,” but it’s got a great chance to end up as the worst in several years.
You can make a trade that works out and yet still have overpaid. Those results aren’t exclusive of one another. The Raiders definitely overpaid, we don’t even know if Palmer can still play or throw. But they also have a much higher ceiling now than they ever did with Campbell.
I’ll say this: I’d rather my team gave up two first rounders for a guy who’s been a winning NFL quarterback than a guy who’s never taken an NFL snap. coughLuckcough
Saints assistant head coach is the linebackers coach, Joe Vitt. How common is it that an assistant HC is not the OC or DC?
Donovan McNabb was a once-winning quarterback, would you rather have him than Luck? 
And it’s not that unusual for a position coach to be assistant head coach. Doesn’t it give some sort of protection against being poached by other teams?
Not uncommon. Russ Grimm was the Steelers’ AHC and offensive line coach. Actually, O-line coach seems to be the position of choice for assistant head coaches who aren’t coordinators.
A little statistical support for my pimping of Joe Haden. On the bottom, under pass defense against #1 WRs, the Browns are at -32.1% DVOA, second only to the Jets (Revis, -34.2%), both of which are far beyond third. League average is +15%. Few teams even force a negative DOA in #1 receivers.
That’s not totally conclusive but it does support my assertion that Haden is quickly becoming one of the best, almost right up there in Revis territory.
Tom Cable is currently for Seattle.
Then you’re foolish, Manning excepted. I make this argument in defense of the Cutler trade. Elite starting QBs are gold. GOLD. If you can get one, you give up 2 #1s every time and don’t even hesitate. Those #1s statistically have maybe a 50-50 chance of being Pro Bowl players and a fraction of that of being Pro Bowl QBs. If you truly get a elite QB you’ll be drafting in the high 20s when those picks pay out so the ratio is probably well below 50-50. Picks are nothing but hopes and dreams, Brees and Brady are the real deal and one in the hand is worth two in the bush…and then some.
QB coaches have gotten the treatment pretty frequently too, off the top of my head Bill Musgrave was both in Atlanta last year and Sean Payton was both in Dallas before going to the Saints. Marinelli got the title as a D Line coach when he started with the Bears .
ETA: Forgot to mention that I think every team should have an assistant head coach and he should never be the OC/DC, teams should use assistant head coaches as defacto game managers for them. Most head coaches, especially those calling plays, constantly botch game management and clock management. Having a QB coach or a Special Teams coordinator who can spare the time during a game should be helping the couch manage time outs and reviewing replays etc.
If you were getting them early, yes they are gold, because they can give you many bites at the apple. But Tom Brady, right now, is 34. Unless he’s some unprecedented freak of nature, history tells us that he’s going to start declining very soon. Marino, Elway … any of them you want to name, after 35 it gets harder and harder to stay healthy, the legs go, and the productivity declines.
If you’re a team that is a QB away from title contender status, taking the chance on winning the championship in the last 3-4 seasons of an immortal’s career might make sense. However, I don’t think the Raiders are just a QB away; put Brady on the team right now – minus Belichick and Welker – and IMO they’re still not clearly better than San Diego, Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Remember that even the very best QBs only win a title maybe one year in ten.
Invest those two picks in two first round QBs, and you’d have about a 1/3 chance of getting a franchise guy for your next decade. Maybe a few years of 11-5 is worth more than that; but it’s not a no-brainer.
Right, but you have to understand that the Raiders believe that Terrelle Pryor (their 3rd round pick next year) is their QB of the future. Right or wrong, and that’s a different subject, they think that in 3-4 years he will be in a position to take over the team. They weren’t going to draft a QB in 2012. Jackson has faith in himself as a talent scout and a QB trainer, and he wants Pryor to study under someone like Palmer who he thinks will be a good teacher and mentor as well as a good QB of the moment.
Based on the reports coming out of Oakland it is clear that, again right or wrong, they think Palmer is better than he played last year. If this is what the organization believes, then this move makes some sort of sense. I am trying to be objective here, but I am a fan so I am probably not.
Still:
In terms of depth, I would have loved to see Oakland pick up a great LB a Safety and a young DE. But there aren’t really a whole lot of other needs that they were going to address anytime soon anyway. The offense is young. At least the core players are and the older players all have a rookie or two behind them. On the defense, they aren’t going to pull McClain after only two years at MLB and they just traded for a Will and are set at Sam. Oakland has corners and safeties falling out of their ears. Michael Huff and Tyvon Branch are looking like they are starting to come into their own and both are on the up side of their careers. Rookie Chimdi Chekwa looks like he is going to be a very solid CB and DeMarcus Van Dyke has potential too, though he looks less good. They need another young Safety, but odds are they think they can probably convert someone. They already have Rout who they like better than I think they should, but they like him and have committed to him and he is decent. They need to stop drafting corners. The LB core is in tougher shape, but the recent add of Curry could be great if they figure out to make him click. They have already started to turn around Jarvis Moss, so it’s possible. On the D Line John Henderson and Seymour aren’t going to be around forever, but it’s not like they don’t have level of depth there too. Houston is looking like a future pro bowler as was Shaughnasy before he got hurt. They are converting Bryant into a DE right now and he has looked good so far.
They may not be as young as people say they are, but they aren’t old by any means. They think they can win now, and more importantly, they are getting the fans back in the stadium. That is a huge deal.
So, yes, they totally overpaid but they either needed to overpay someone or give up the season as lost and let Boller play it out. They want to keep the fan base, so they overpay. The move has fans excited, and it the Raiders make it to the post season this year and next I think everyone rooting for the team will judge the trade worth while.
Missed the edit window, but wanted to add:
The bigger issue I think is the money Palmer is going to get, but that’s also a problem for another day. Oakland has never had a problem overpaying players and staying under the cap in the past so it’s not the end of the world.
It’s a huge gamble, but that’s what the Raiders do. Sometimes you gamble and lose (Daunte Culpepper). Sometimes you gamble and win, (Rich Gannon, Jim Plunket, Daryle Lamonica). This is practically an Oakland Raiders tradition. Palmer is younger than Gannon was, and only needs to stick around as long as Gannon did if the organization is right about Pryor. If they aren’t they were kind of fucked on their QB future anyway.
The part that amuses me is that they HAVE to play Carson Palmer now, which means that they have to give Jason Campbell the boot. He’s lost his starting job because of an injury after taking the Raiders to 4-2, and while he may be an average NFL quarterback he’s been fitting in with the team.
Where does he end up next year? He’s certainly not going to ride the pine for a team that he was supposed to be the leader of. How is that dynamic going to effect things in Oakland next season?
Also, if your backup isn’t good enough to start a game in the NFL in a pinch he shouldn’t be on the roster. What’s the point in paying Kyle Boller if he’s not good enough to play? The backup should be not as good but still serviceable, someone like Kerry Collins or Charlie Batch a former starter who can hold down the fort for a decent team. Anything else is a waste of money.
Yes, to all of this. It’s annoying. It’s particularly sad for Jason because he is something like 12-4 (don’t remember the exact record, not going to look it up) since he became the unquestioned starter.
11-5 if I counted right. I am a little ashamed that I looked that up.