They had statistical success. Winning? Not so much. Thigpen was 1-9, Cam is 1-5. Kudos to Chud for changing the Panthers offense to take advantage of his QB’s strengths, but it’s not resulting in wins. You put Tebow in the Florida offense and he may have statistical success, but I’m not sold it would result in wins.
I am strongly in the Tebow isn’t, and isn’t likely to develop into, an NFL quarterback. The fact you could, if you wished, build an entire offense around the guy for him to succeed statistically doesn’t change that for me.
They’re not winning because their teams are giving up damn near 30 points a game. Kansas City was 31st in total defense and 29th in scoring defense in 2008. The Panthers are 28th in scoring defense in 2011.
Statistical success is the only reasonable means of determining whether a quarterback is successful.
Then why isn’t Tyler Thigpen starting? Why didn’t he start in 2009? Why was Tebow a #3 QB? Why hasn’t the college spread caught on in the NFL? The spread does a good job of inflating the QB’s stats, which is nice for the QB, but it comes at the cost of the rest of the team. In the NFL, it tends to make teams much more one dimensional, which is most definitely not a recipe for success. If the goal is to accumulate high yardage stats, great. But that’s not the goal. Thigpen had very nice fantasy numbers, but his passer rating that year was a whopping 76. Cam Newton is the #4 passing yard QB this year, yet his rating is a whopping 78.3. Inflating a QB’s stats isn’t the goal, it is to win. And I don’t think Denver changing to a spread offense to help run up Tebow’s numbers is a good idea.
About the Tebow thing. The Broncos simply have to evaluate him. They wasted a high pick on him and the new management has to figure out if he’s worth a minute more of their time and energy. Right now he’s basically holding that team hostage. Tossing him out there to start is pretty much the only way they can figure out if he’ll be worth a roster spot next year at all.
They aren’t tanking and they aren’t trying to do the fans or Jacksonville any favors. They just have to properly scout the guy and having him flame out after starting a few games will be all the ammo they need to jettison him if he flops. If they dump him without ever giving him a chance then they’ve wasted their 1st round pick and opened the door up to questioning.
Because Thigpen isn’t a good quarterback, and Newton is a rookie*. Denver’s conventional offense wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire with the very serviceable Kyle Orton. Tebow was the #3 quarterback because he looked awful in practice.
I might add that Tebow’s rating in the three games he started last year was a pretty-strong-for-a-rookie 82.1.
Sam Bradford had what everyone agreed was an excellent rookie season and posted a 79 quarterback rating. Peyton Manning posted a 71.
*Not only that, but as I’ve pointed out to you before, the same personnel combined to form the league’s worst offense last year.
That’s what I thought at first, but the Broncos apparently had no interest in paying Lloyd #1 money, so he was going to be gone this offseason anyway.
That said, Lloyd is the ideal target for Tebow. What he does best is throw middle-depth passes, and what Lloyd does best is catch them. Nearly all of Tebow’s completions last year were 20-yarders to Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney, or checkdowns to running backs.
Actually, I think it’s the smart move. Under any plausible scenario, they are not contenders, this year or next. From the standpoint of the average fan, Tebow has an excellent resume, is fun to watch, is a great guy, and cost the team a number-one pick. If the Broncos are going to ask the fans to support them through a multi-year rebuilding project, a fan perception that they didn’t even give Tebow a fair shot is going to be very destructive.
Going 4-12 with Orton is spinning the wheels; going 3-13 with Tebow is productive, in the sense that if nothing else it clears the way for whoever comes next.
If the Broncos genuinely aren’t giving up and they want to give another QB a shot, why wouldn’t the turn to the guy they have evaluated as the next best on the roster, Brady Quinn? The fact that they switched QBs is not the problem; it’s that the fans made the decision for them.
Brady Quinn is the #2 quarterback because he more suited than Tebow to back up Orton (being a traditional pocket passer). I don’t think anyone would seriously argue that he’s a better option than Tebow in a vacuum; we know what Quinn is capable of, and it’s not much.
This is silly. As you indicate, they didn’t have especially good statistics. They accumulated high yardage totals because they threw a lot, as is true of any QB in any time.
I have doubts that a full Urban Meyer type spread, with lots of read options and the QB running off tackle would work in the NFL – which is probably why that won’t be what they do. In the modern NFL, most teams already use their 3 WR set more than any other, and are in the gun 40% of the time. “An NFL-ized spread” likely just means a slight change in tendencies, with a few more QB draws or misdirection plays, a few more screens, and a handful of option plays in short-yardage situations.
Orton has had 6 years and 2100 pass attempts to show what he can and can’t do.
Quinn has had 3 years and 353 pass attempts.
Tebow has had 1 year and 92 pass attempts.
Add to this that the front office in Denver can’t risk throwing Tebow away without testing him first as they have already spent a 1st round pick and a lot of hype on him. They cannot risk tossing him away only to have him take off in someone else’s offense. That would be a huge amount they would have to answer for. So, they put him out there. If he blows up , they keep him; if he bombs they drop him and say “Look, we tried. He couldn’t cut it.” to the fans and media. It is not like they are risking a SB slot at this point.