North America and Europe going to be like the fall of the Roman Empire? Okay we all know how North America and Europe gone through growing pains of the industrialization and started to spend money into education, technology, science and inventions!!
And how East Asia industrializing very fast and by the year 2050 to be at level of North America and Europe. And how East Asia the government is starting to spend money into education,science and research and development.
Well North America and Europe is swimming in debt and education,technology, science and inventions is declining.
And major shortage of skilled people that the government is bringing in skilled immigration reform programs because of the shortage of killed people. Yet this is not enough.
Many people are starting to thing North America and Europe is going the way of Roman Empire. If this true. Than East Asia and very much so China will be the new kid in town.This is could be bad with China lack of democracy and Chinese people lack of control over the government.
I already see the signs of education,technology, science and inventions declining. It sad the government is not doing any thing to help but make it worse.
Look at NASA and former USSR space program and look at NASA today and Russian space program today.
I feel North America and Europe is doomed and there is nothing we can do.
Why is it inherently better for North American and Europe to be dominant globally?
I expect the next 1000 years will lead to major shifts in all sorts of things. I’m not too concerned. My great grandchildren might like living in a sleepy backwater country like the USA in 2115.
Well, the US hasn’t lost any of its territory and is still militarily dominant over the rest of the world. Rome declined for a variety of reasons, but its fall was due substantially to the decline of its army and Rome’s inability to defend itself. It appears that the US will be militarily supreme for decades if not indefinitely, so I say no, we are not at any risk of external collapse.
No. If anything, it might be more like the decline of the British Empire than Rome.
I seriously doubt that most of ‘East Asia’ (a.k.a. presumably ‘China’) will be on a level with North America and Europe by 2050. You are glossing over substantial issues that China still has to face and overcome, including it’s ridiculous communist government and policies on things like open data access with the rest of the world. I think China is going to eventually hit the wall (the Great Firewall of China among other walls) and this stuff is all going to come to a head.
The US and Europe, on the other hand, while having issues, are in a much better systemic position from a stability perspective both socially and economically. This isn’t to say that China hasn’t come a long way in an astonishingly short period of time, but one of the reasons they look so good is they were coming up from so far down. It gets tougher from here on out for them, and they have serious issues they will need to address first.
Huh? I can’t parse this sentence so that it makes sense (to me, granted). If you are saying that the US and Europe are having a shortage of ‘skilled people’, well, that’s kind of true, but the US and Europe are also prime locations for immigration of skilled workers. When China becomes a net recipient of skilled immigration instead of basically a brain and economic drain (i.e. many wealthy Chinese prefer to immigrate, if they can, to western countries, taking their wealth and skills with them to the net benefit of their new nation) come back and we will talk.
What about them? Russia has serious economic issues and they are kind of busy with their quasi-covert war in the Ukraine. NASA, however, has a pretty impressive string of technological and challenging missions to Mars and other unmanned exploration and is currently working with private companies to develop a new generation of extremely capable and heavy lift manned rockets, and the European space agency is doing some amazing things as well. China is basically doing what the US did decades ago. Again, this isn’t to disparage what they are doing, which is impressive, but they aren’t on the same plain as either NASA or the Europeans (more like India, who has done some amazing things at fairly low cost recently).
But you feel this way because you are glossing over all of the problems that China has while dwelling on those that the US and Europe do without being able to look at the bigger picture.
What barbarian tribes are going to move into our territory and conquer us? Mexicans?
A vast continent-spanning empire takes a lot of declining and falling before it finally ends. The Roman Republic lasted hundreds of years, the Roman Empire lasted hundreds of years, with periods of decline and renewal.
And it’s easy to see the problems we face here in America, but since you know nothing about China it’s somehow easy for you to imagine they don’t have any major problems over there.
Note that China was an empire way back in Roman days, which fell apart and reconstituted itself several times since then. So the notion that empires are destined for the dustheap is pretty silly. China has been sacked and conquered by barbarians several times, humiliated by foreign powers, saddled by bizarre ideological self-inflicted disasters, and they’re still stumbling along. Is there going to be a country calling itself China in 100 years? Pretty sure that will happen. Is there going to be a country calling itself the United States of America in 100 years? Pretty sure that will happen.
I assume they’ll gradually, or dramatically, move to a more open and civilized society over time. They’ll be no worse than the Canadians. ;). Things change, which is kind of the OP’s point.
It does not matter if it is communist country.The USSR was second super power in world with military and space program. It just very little money gone helping the people and money going into military and space program .
What matters is totalitarian government, human rights abuse and lack of democracy. And China is that!!! Any protests, human rights activists, environmentalists activists, workers rights and so on are put in jail. And censorship and banning in China.
So well the Chinese people are nice the government is not.
That is why I said North American and Europe should dominant globally. Unless China does some thing about human rights activists, environmentalists activists, workers rights and democracy.
So you think Russia should focus on economic issues than going into space.
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It does not matter if it is communist country.The USSR was second super power in world with military and space program. It just very little money gone helping the people and money going into military and space program .
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It matters because there are all sorts of systemic issues that stem from their government, not because it’s communist per se. And they are issues the Chinese will have to overcome if they are going to take things to the next level and really be on the same plain as the US and Europe. It’s one of the main reasons China has a brain and economic drain from them TOO the west. When that changes THEN you can start talking about them having arrived. And since it’s not a zero sum dumb goy world, simply because China rises does not mean the US/Europe has to fall.
Regardless, the US/Europe is very unlikely to fall like Rome.
Those things matter because they are things that China MUST overcome if they are to continue to move forward…and they are problems that the Chinese aren’t currently overcoming, but instead mainly entrenching on. All of this is bringing things to an eventual head.
Russia is basically a one trick economical pony atm. They need to get past that and they have their own systemic issues that they also need to address in much the same way that China does. Structurally they are very weak and they are also having a host of issues coming to a head, accelerated by the fact that their one trick pony has had it’s value lowered substantially by OPEC’s policy on not cutting back production (a policy probably aimed more at Iran, but that is affecting Russia in similar ways). So, they SHOULD focus on fixing their internal issues and economy and not on their Ukrainian adventure.
That said, I think they should continue with their space program, but that also is going to become more a moot issue since what’s keeping it afloat mainly right now is that NASA and even the Europeans need it to cover the manned flight gap that currently exists. But NASA is in the process of addressing that, and eventually the Russians will be back on their own resources wrt that.
OK, so you’re worried that non-liberal China is going to get stronger and stronger in the future? OK, but what do you propose we do about it? Is the world better off with a weak and divided China tearing itself apart?
China’s success in the past 30 years has alleviated more human misery than any other period in human history. Chinese people are suffering much less from human rights abuses than they did under Mao and Japan and the warlords.
Of course there’s no guarantee that the trend will continue, but China has been getting better, sometimes substantially better under most metrics for quite some time. But they still have a lot of problems that western countries worked out a long time ago. China is going to have a hard slog to achieve per-capita parity with mid-level countries like Mexico, much less Europe the US.
And what does that have to do with imperial collapse in North America and Europe? Like, what are the signs of collapse? A large national debt? What do you think happens when a country can’t pay back it’s debt? It just declares bankruptcy and ceases to exist? No, they just pass a law saying, “Yeah, about that debt: screw you, we’re not paying”, the financial markets go crazy for a while, and the country staggers on.
When technology and inventions become stagnated in North America and Europe and East Asia start to focus on science, technology and inventions where government is starting to focus on that now.
Already technology and inventions are slowing down in North America and Europe.
Countries in East Asia will not invade they have no interest to do so. It just the focus will be on East Asia than North America and Europe.
Some east asian nations like South Korea stopped growing rapidly at about 15k per capita income. Others are closer to 50k like SIngapore. I don’t know where China will end up, it could end up with a per capita income 1/3 the size of the US, or equal to the US. We really don’t know. The difference is their economy could be 3x bigger than expected, or 1/3 the size as expected.
Also China is experiencing a demographic crisis. The one child policy means there aren’t enough workers to take care of things.
This will be good however as the CHinese will innovate new forms of automation and affordable healthcare as well as affordable/automated eldercare that they will export to the rest of the world to deal with this problem. I think that is one of the biggest things China will do for humanity in the first half of the 21st century.
There is, in anything, a glut of STEM trained workers in the US. The whole ‘shortage’ thing is just a corporate and academia marketing ploy to drive down wages and drive up attendance/funding for universities.
China will not be a lone superpower on earth. The world will be multipolar. The US, Europe, China, India, Latin America, etc will all have wealth and influence.
China has 10x the population of Japan. A world with 10 Japan’s worth of people contributing to the world’s medicine, science, energy technology, robotics, etc. is a better world than one without it.
How does “We don’t have a moon base yet” equal “Better start learning Mandarin to better converse with our Chinese masters”?
Or are you saying that IF America stops caring about science, and IF China suddenly starts caring about science, then eventually after several generations America will fall behind and China will march ahead? Because you know, neither of those two things is actually happening yet.
I don’t think the USA will ever be a sleepy backwater country. That’s not to say it will always be as dominant on the global scene as it is now; it’s that I think it would break apart into smaller nation-states.
Well, you’ve already got them in the foederati. I mean the Marines. It’s only a matter of time before one of them gets baptized and starts lopping off the heads of out-of-the-way governors to found his own kingdom.