I wonder if the Trump defenders are coming back to this thread. NK changes nothing, gets the pageantry and propaganda win of the summit, gets the US-SK joint exercises ended, at no cost to themselves. Wow, what a negotiator that Kim Jong Un is!
In all fairness to the OP, even if one were optimistic about disarmament - and I’ve been on record as not being that optimistic, but if I were - nobody should expect results within a matter of days or weeks.
I’ve been on record as being skeptical of the prospects of peace with North Korea, and I’m in agreement that North Korea is not about to give up its nuclear weapons in the near future. But let’s suppose that I’m wrong and that North Korea is serious about easing tensions: I would expect it to take time for both sides to develop trust and work out the logistics of a peaceful framework.
So I’ll cut HD a break and say let’s give it some time.
Trump negotiations require time for one thing: to hope that people forget about the thing as the time passes.
Giving it some time doesn’t mean one can’t criticize them for very obvious apparent missteps. If it turns out they were secretly 11-dimensional chess masters and have a secret plan that is underway that gets results, then I’ll happily say I was wrong. But based on all the information out so far, it seems reasonable to posit that Trump is a doofus with regards to international diplomacy, gave away things NK wanted for free, and put the US in a significantly weaker position than we were previously.
Fair enough, I suppose.
I just don’t necessarily believe that upgrading a nuclear facility is necessarily a game-changer, and it doesn’t necessarily portend the end of diplomacy. I see it as North Korea taking precautions in case diplomacy breaks down and they determine that they need to start saber rattling again. It’s still possible that there’s some sort of tentative framework that, even if it’s not quite full denuclearization, could still reduce tensions considerably. If Kim can agree to suspend his nuke program, suspend his missile program, allow inspectors to monitor his facilities, pulls back some of his heavy artillery along the border, and stops harassing Japan and South Korea, then I would consider that a major breakthrough, regardless of whether Trump’s boasts of full denuclearization come up short. I actually do believe that there’s a way to achieve those goals to some degree. A lot of it will boil down to lifting sanctions - to what degree and when.
Having said that, there is obviously a lot that can go wrong, and with this president, and with John Bolton within a whisper’s distance, my fear is that when things go wrong, they’re going to go really, really wrong. The nightmare scenario is that Bolton concludes Kim is a fraud and goes full-on walrus and goads Trump into taking an aggressive posture. Even more worrisome is what happens if and when Trump believes he’s being played like a fiddle. Trump thinks he’s winning now, but what if he feels he’s losing later? That’s the danger.
Well, this is the one good thing I see about Trump. He talks a big game about punching back twice as hard, but if there’s the remotest indication he might get hurt, he backs backs off. He declares victory, sits down, and shuts the fuck up.
That’s essentially what he did with NK’s hydrogen bomb and missile test, after all. I’m optimistic he’ll do it repeatedly whenever his own orange skin is in danger.
Start the countdown clock on Trump denying that there was ever an agreement, denying that he met Kim, and/or denying that there’s a place called “North Korea.”
I’m not giving him a harsh time about lack of disarmament - I’m pointing out that they are INCREASING capabilities at this moment. It’s one thing to sign a piece of paper, and a whole 'nother thing to actually do it. Given North Korea has happily signed paper and ignored it in the past, and are doing the same now while Trump declares “Mission Accomplished”, well…HD doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt.
Yeah, this.
Point one: NK hasn’t even declared their capabilities, so we have no idea what success looks like. Trump won’t tell us what he agreed with NK, other than some vague gesture toward “less nuclearization”.
Point two: What we see is broad brushes of “more nuclearization”.
Point three: NK has bait-and-switched 3 previous US presidents who are arguably smarter and more experienced in foreign policy.
Galaxy brain conclusion: Trump is pulling out a win with a combination of 11th-dimensional chess, luck, and penile display.
Hall monitor conclusion: He negotiated nothing for the US, he’s getting nothing for the US, and his only improvement over the past 3 presidents is the breathtaking scope of his lies about it.
It certainly is true that the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula is greatly reduced since the summit. And that’s because Trump is no longer threatening war with North Korea.
I guess you could give him credit for defusing the crisis that was entirely caused by his own behavior, if you’re into that sort of thing.
I mean, it’s not like North Korea is any more or any less dangerous than it was before the summit, but at least we’re not going to instigate a war there now.
We are, however, less prepared for one due to the cancellation of exercises. That makes us less credible to NK and anyone else.
There is the little matter that North Korea has desisted with launching missiles over Japan too.
Anyone who is dumb enough to think that a cancelled exercise means the US military is, in any significant way “less prepared” or “less credible” now is probably dumb enough that they didn’t realize how the exercises showcased our preparedness and credibility in the first place.
Is this part of the agreement in writing, or just that they haven’t done so in the last few weeks? Have they been launching missiles over japan each and every week, and so it is a noticeable difference, or is it something that they only do when they are saber rattling in the first place?
Less organized, poorer communication with SK assets and command, less prepared for combat in the terrain. Sure simulators are useful, but actual exercises are better practice if it comes to the real thing.
I’m sure we can still kick their asses if need be, but at a higher cost in causalities on our side, and their’s, due to us not being as prepared as we could be.
Do you feel that all military exercises are just a waste of time and money that do not add to our military preparedness, or just this one?
Finally, even if you really think that it is symbolic only, then that means that Kim got a symbolic victory from trump “the statesman”, and the US got nothing.
You’re talking about the rapid development of their missile capabilities which they exhibited under the Trump admin? The tests meant to test Dotard’s resolve? Those tests?
Yeah. That’s “winning”.
Hurr, you should probably reserve some ammo. Won’t be long before you are down here telling us that our massive economic problems are because of Obama’s trade war.
The Great Dealmaker got rolled. Not for the first time, nor the last.
The last test was in November! You know what that means? The summit was so effective, its influence went backwards in time! Amazing!