Personally, I don’t even know where to begin speculating.
Basically a list of boilerplate declarations about peace and stability with no real details or timelines.
Given that they went straight from shaking hands to signing the document to leaving, I think it’s reasonable to say that the whole thing was laid out as little more than a photo op for the both of them, rather than as a summit. It gives them both a win without actually losing anything.
Given that, it remains to be seen whether there’s any value to the whole spectacle in foreign policy terms. Though, obviously, there will be lots of value in domestic approval ratings on both sides (not that that matters strongly on the North Korea side).
Have the people who condemned the Iran deal started calling this a breakthrough, yet?
Candidate Trump said that he would act presidential once he was the president. I’m still watching the news conference and he keeps going on and on. It’s pretty presidential. That’s the best I can say about this.
I’m curious about #4:
“The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.”
Is the US or one of our allies (Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, etc.) holding any North Koreans prisoner at the moment? I could see that being an issue if Trump offered to deliver them back all of the prisoners we’re holding, without actually asking our allies if they were willing to let them go.
I’m pretty sure that’s just about unidentified Korean War era remains, not any living individuals.
It’s being reported here that they spent a fair of time alone, apart from interpreters, with no other officials or advisers present. In that case, who took the notes and wrote up this or any other document?
More importantly, how is any of this to be operationalised?
It won’t be, of course, a fact anyone could have seen coming.
Kim already got what he wanted, so, as usual, he will come up with reasons to not keep his promises. This was a huge, huge win for him.
Actually, I’m now expecting him to play nice for a time, since Trump said he would invite Kim to the White House. Once that trip is in the bag, then Kim will turn on him.
I also note one interesting discrepancy in how the US and NK are discussing this: The US keeps talking about removing NK’s nuclear weapons, while NK always, always, refers to the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”. That would include US nukes.
I’m betting that this will ultimately be the reason this process will fail.
The process is in fact going to succeed. Mr. Kim is going to get exactly what he wants. Kim is playing checkers; Trump is playing pin the tail on the donkey.
Let’s not forget that President Trump has said that joint military exercises with South Korea are going to be halted so long as North Korea continues to play nice. That’s a big win for the DPRK; they hate those exercises. And it weakens the alliance against them. But it does give the President something in the way of an incentive to keep the DPRK moving “forward” on the underlying issues.
I’m not sure what Mr. Kim envisions regarding “denuclearization”. After all, if the nukes we have aren’t in Korea, but are in Japan, or on Guam, or in the Aleutians, or, hell, on our substantial fleet, does it really matter?
First thing they have to work on is establishing a framework for future negotiations. That’s going to take a while. After that, of course, the actual negotiations can proceed, with all deliberate speed. In the meantime, they will promise not to do what they can’t do, and we will promise not to do what we can.
Also, beaches. Condos. Yeah, sure.
The document was probably prepared before their meeting. The private negotiations was likely over how to transfer portions of the North Korean treasury to Trump in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
I suspect that Kim is going to get what he wants, and Trump is going to get what he wants, what is best for America on the other hand is a different question.
It’s a deal to open a Trump hotel in North Korea and a promise that Trump won’t interfere with Kim’s plan to absorb South Korea as part of his prison labor camp.
Not actually prisoners, but North Korea is demanding South Korea to return defectors.
Also, the issue of foreigners abducted by North Korea seems to be absent from the document. (The link is primarily about Japanese people abducted by North Korea, but has information about people from other countries as well.)
The art of the deal
What Kim gets:
• No more joint military exercises
• Increased status and legitimacy in North Korea
• Increased status and legitimacy internationally
What Trump gets
• Vague promises.
How the North Koreans see the situation:
If you’ve got nuclear weapons, the United States will back down, suck up to you, and stop trying to push you around. Nuclear weapons are vital for leverage.
And all this while we still don’t have an ambassador to South Korea, in case anyone’s forgotten.
The United States had a good-sized army and navy stationed in Japan, Guam, and the Aleutians, plus nuclear weapons, in 1949. But only a token force in Korea.
The result was North Korea felt safe in invading South Korea and almost succeeded in overrunning the entire country before American troops could be brought in.
Kim publicly wants to return to the situation that existed in 1949. We should be considering the possibility he secretly wants to return to the situation that existed in 1950.
Denuclearization doesn’t equate to demilitarization.
Yet… :dubious: