I’d say the answer was that NK did suspend their missile testing (they, unsurprisingly, seem to be making noises about un-suspending it sometime in the near future) and closed at least one of their nuclear test sites (due to issues with it collapsing from what I recall), so I guess to both of those the answer was ‘yes’. The ‘Trump the statesman’ bit is definitely debatable…I’d go with ‘no’ on that one, but that reflects my own bias and animus against the guy more than anything on this particular issue.
But what you’re ignoring is the effect this is having on South Korea’s efforts to engage with North Korea. SK has been making inroads with NK completely aside from the US process, and Trump’s antics have basically screwed that all up.
And that’s the biggest problem with Trump. He’s a monkey with a machine gun, to quote “Better Call Saul!” SK has been trying to engage NK in a mature, measured way, and Trump’s moronic fumbling has ruined almost everything that SK has accomplished in this regard.
We really do need to deal with NK as a nuclear power, as much as we might not like that, and I’d be glad if anyone else was making that effort, but Trump has proven he simply doesn’t have the mature attitude needed to negotiate this very delicate situation. He wants the Big Win with the Adulation of the Crowd, and that’s just never going to happen. What we need is a reasonable, measured, gradual normalization of relations, and Trump is simply incapable of doing such things.
As I suspected, the purges are on: at least it’s not an automatic trip to the slaughterhouse, apparently. It’ll still be interesting to see how North Korea’s food situation holds up.
Anyone here want to bet on Trump actually signing off on a “smaller deal” negotiated by someone who name doesn’t rhyme with “Stump”?
ETA: The final paragraph is telling:
Trump, in his eagerness to embrace Kim, and look good for the home audience by acting “tough” has thrown yet another long-standing ally under the bus. Screw you, South Korea! Trump’s legacy is more important than trying to eliminate a threat that’s been hanging over you for 70years.
As just getting ready to post this from CNN on it as well.
So, assuming this is correct, they tested something like our own MLRS. Not exactly earth shattering. I agree it probably is some kind of pointed reminder. But…they still haven’t pulled the trigger on anything major wrt renewed testing. I think that I’m still cautiously optimistic about how things have turned out. So far.
The tests come at a time when North Korea is dealing with potentially is worst food shortage crisis in more than a decade - possibly as bad as the one in the late 1990s. I suspect that this is a warning that unless sanctions ease up and they get some food fast, the rest of us can expect an escalation.
This is what I said at the start of the thread, and I think it’s mostly still applicable today. I put John Bolton’s name in bold because I think he (and maybe Pompeo as well) is the dangerous variable in this equation. I think Donald Trump wants to be a hero and wants a deal, but he also doesn’t want to be embarrassed either. Bolton, OTOH, is an ideological soldier, and I think he in particular is a dangerous factor inside the WH. He was never a fan of this detente, and you can count on Bolton to do all he can to shape how Trump interprets Kim’s actions. Bolton’s solution for everything is aggression, pressure, and dominance. He is an imaginary warrior ten times as arrogant and deulusional than Donald Rumsfeld. The risk of deliberate first strike from either side is probably still quite low; as always, the real risk is playing a game of chicken and having one side or both misread and miscalculate the other.
I can’t argue against the fact that the deescalation over the past year has been a largely positive development. However, I don’t think the overall situation has fundamentally changed that much. The dynamics involve friction between the Kim regime’s need to have sanctions eased and to ease pressure on the regime on one hand, and the US’s foreign policy based on economic warfare on the other. The Kim regime probably doesn’t feel that it’s in a position to negotiate all that much, though there could be some concessions it could end up making. Generally speaking, if there’s a way out, it’s most likely going to have to be some concessions on the US side. Those concessions mean a gradual easing of economic sanctions in exchange for some meaningful benefit in return. The problem is, I don’t see concessions as Bolton’s style.
“While Pompeo is fabricating stories after his own taste and trying to raise his publicity stunt at the sacrifice of the DPRK-U.S. relations as a whole, it is fortunate that the personal relationship between our Chairman of the State Affairs Commission and President Trump is on good terms as usual and our Chairman is pleased to get on well with President Trump.”
Ha-ha! Dear Donald, the one of you two guys that is a little smarter than the other one, we don’t particularly are for. You, we think you’re great! Have we complimented you on your penis It is very big, you must be proud.
Well, not sure that your prediction has been borne out, to be honest. I’m not seeing much of an escalation … in fact, we haven’t even gotten back to the levels things were at before, as yet. No new large scale missile tests, no nuclear tests. Yet. If they get back to where they were wrt nuclear weapons tests and missile tests, then go beyond that, well, then we’d be at an escalation.
What prompted your post here? I haven’t seen anything substantial that’s changed recently except the testing of a short ranged missile which seems pretty meh. It’s like the MLRS test that revived this thread last time. It’s nothing like the long range tests over, say, Japanese air space we were getting.
Again, this is going to continue because Kim Jung Un wants some relief on sanctions and Bolton and Pompeo refuse to budge.
As I pointed out a long time ago, the problem we have is that Bolton and Pompeo are potentially - I think inevitably - painting the two sides into their own corners. They were never in favor of direct talks with Kim - that was Trump’s idea. But they knew that talks would fail because of sanctions, so now they’re in a position where they can go to the president and say “Mr. President, I’m sorry, but this isn’t working - he’s making you look like a fool, like a weakling. What are you gonna do about it?” This is particularly dangerous at a time when Trump is fighting for his political survival, and the survival of his family enterprise.
On the reverse side, the sanctions are crippling and they also come at a time when the harvest was apparently quite bad this year. The fear that Kim and the top North Korean officials have is unrest within the lower levels of government (the military). North Korea can get away with its creation story myths and its lies for a long time, but the ability to distort reality and human patience aren’t inexhaustible. There’s always a potential breaking point and nobody at the top wants to know what that is. We’re moving into a situation where both sides feel like they may have to stand their ground.
