According to the NY Times
North Korea’s had enough raw material for a while. Not so good.
In the short term there is nothing that can or should be done. This is going to require pressure that only the Chinese can exert. So they can produce a few bombs, actually being able to deliver them is another giant step. Lest anyone point fingers at the Democrats, please note that about 80% of their stockpile has been amassed since 2002.
Amid all the hustle & bustle of digging the blast pit?
I don’t think so.
On the “Was it a dud?” question, more available here, with links.
Even if we weren’t bogged down in Iraq, an invasion of North Korea would never be on the table. It will not happen. Even if George Bush longed to prove his manhood by taking out North Korea, South Korea would never allow it. It would be impossible to invade North Korea except from South Korea. South Korea would be devastated in any invasion. Yes, we’d surely win against North Korea’s starving conscripts, but South Korea’s capital is within artillery range of the North.
Iraq had no capability to damage US allies during the war. Sure, he could lob a few scuds against Israel, he could lob a few scuds against Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. Likely to hit nothing of consequence. But North Korea even without nukes can shell Seoul. Kill tens or hundreds of thousands of people, cause billions of dollars in damage. And it would take hours or days to silence those artillery pieces.
So South Korea isn’t going to invade. And without South Korea the US isn’t going to invade. Or bomb. Or do anything militarily. Even if we wanted to.
If North Korea bombs any country or invades the South, then the regime will be finished. And we won’t respond with nukes, even if North Korea uses nukes, because we’d essentially be nuking our ally South Korea. And we wouldn’t NEED to. Our army is bogged down fighting an insurgency in Iraq. But we sliced through Saddam’s army like swiss cheese. And we wouldn’t have to deal with insurgency problems after the war, because that would be South Korea’s problem. I mean Korea’s problem, since there wouldn’t be a north and south Korea any more.
I really think we’re going to see a paradigm shift in Japan. Not tomorrow, and maybe not next year, but in the next 10 years. It was kinda understood that they’d play the game of pacifist as long as the US protected them. If it turns out we can’t, then the game’s over. And with China rising as regional power, and NK sable rattling, the fact is the US’s interests and Japan’s intersts are going to diverge. I would not be surprised to see a nuclear Japan in 10 years.
But what purpose would Japan’s nukes serve? A deterrent against a nuclear armed North Korea? But they don’t need a nuclear deterrent, since if North Korea starts using nukes it can be obliterated conventionally. Nuclear blackmail only works if you never actually pull the trigger. North Korea won’t have a large number of bombs, it won’t have a reliable missile delivery system. So even if they deliver one nuke to Japan, they don’t have a credible threat to deliver two.
The scenario is, North Korea nukes Japan, or South Korea, or the United States, then says they’ve got more nukes where that came from, so agree to our demands. But they’re not in any better position than they were before they dropped their nuke, because now they have to be eliminated. If North Korea nuked Japan, is Japan going to nuke North Korea? No, they won’t. And so the Japanese nuclear bomb serves no purpose.
An incentive to get China to take some action against NK. Perhaps the scenario is more along the lines that Japanes threatens to go nulcear unless China gets NK to reliquish its nukes.
Force NK to get rid of its nukes or we’ll nuke you? Yeah, that’ll work.
I think people just need to face the reality that eventually everybody’s going to have the bomb, there’s nothing we can do about it and that’s probably just as it should be.
Of course it wouldn’t work, but then that’s not what I said, so I don’t understand what your point is.
China does not want Japan to be a regional military power. Perhaps if it had yet one more reason to stomp on NK, they might actually do it.
You said this:
What did you mean by “go nuclear?”
I think they’d stomp on Japan before they stomped on NK. It’s not like it would be much of a fight.
Japan has a big mean gaijin tag team partner in Uncle Sugar. China isn’t ready to tangle with the US yet, so they ain’t gonna mess with Japan.
Develop nulear weapons. That’s what it usually means. I did not say “use the nuclear option”, which would have meant what you thought I meant. Sorry for being unlcear, though.
Unlikely. Too much capital flows into China from Japan still.
The problem with China stomping on NK is that if they stomp too hard, they’ll topple the regime, and then they’ve got an even bigger headache on their hands. However, if there is another headache (or more headaches) out there, they may be just that more likely to weigh their options differently.
Let me add… I don’t necessarily see this as a calculated strategy on the part of the Japanese government (although it could be). That’s why I said I expected a paradigm shift in that country. Right now, it’s unthinkable to consider “going nuclear” for many Japense. But the Japanese alive today aren’t like their parents or grandparents-- deathly afraid of nulcear weapons. A nuclear NK threatens Japan at least as much (if not more) than it threatens the US. As more and more Japanese become increasingly uncomfortable with outsourcing their defense to the US, it could very well lead to thinking the unthinkable.
OK, using the nukes as bargaining chips makes a limited amount of sense. Kind of like Israel building settlements in the West Bank, so they offer to dismantle the settlements in return for a peace agreement. So Japan starts a nuclear program, then announces that they’ll stop the nuclear program if China gets North Korea to stop its nuclear program.
But that’s not gonna work. China already wants to stop the North Korean nuclear program. What can they do about it, besides war and regime change? Cut off aid? Then North Korea starves and a desperate North Korean regime does something desperate. China, South Korea and Japan don’t want North Korea to implode because they fear that when the regime implodes there’s going to be a lot of collateral damage. Here in the US we’re much more comfortable with the idea of the regime imploding…except it’s not likely we’ll get a soft landing. But if China and South Korea pay the price, well, so be it.
The reality is that the North Korean problem can’t be solved without regime change. We have no method of peacefully changing the North Korean regime, the best we can do is bribe them with food shipments occasionally in return for them not starting a war. And we have no desire for a war, because that would ruin South Korea and parts of China and maybe even Japan. So we muddle through hoping the horse will learn to sing. And I don’t see any better strategy.
I’d be surprised if we didn’t. (Assuming this is real.)
I don’t usually point out people’s typos, but in the context of this discussion, could you specify exactly what word you meant John? 
If China and North Korea both have nukes, Japan won’t want to be the weakest kid on the block.
North Korea has the materials to make six or eight bombs, as I remember it, and if they keep enriching or whatever, they’ll have a small arsenal. I’m assuming that even Kim is not crazy enough to test a bomb unless he has at least one more.
If it stops North Korea from even entertaining thoughts of taking a shot at Japan, it probably serves its purpose. Who is going to bank on Kim’s rationality?
It ends up being Mutually Assured Asian Destruction. Extra fun because it involves the world’s craziest dictator and weirdest country in Kim and North Korea, the most populated country in the world in China, and the country with the world’s largest urban center in Japan.
What’s the chances of NK getting the smackdown from S. Korea, China, and the U.S., and then a post-war reuinificantion of Korea?
I don’t think that Bush “axis of evil” speech in 2002 (which included NK) and USAs invasion of Iraq the year after made things any better concerning Kim’s behavior and action
Maybe Kim thought something like this - We are most likely next on the list and must therefore do something to prevent an invasion