How do you know? ISTM that the perpetuation of the NK nuke crisis benefits China in their relations with us; it’s one more thing we need them for. If China made NK’s nukes magically disappear tomorrow, they’d lose a big piece of leverage over us.
Put me in the ‘ain’t nothin’ we can do about this’ category.
And while NK can’t put a plutonium bomb in a rocket yet, they could certainly put it aboard a plane. It may be a 1940s-era nuclear delivery system, but it worked then.
Of course China can stop NK. The reason they don’t is that they’d rather have an NK with nukes than an NK that would result from their pressure not to have nukes, which might be one with a destablized regime and thousands or millions of refuges streaming across the border. But what if the alternative also included a nculear and increasingly nationalistic Japan? As I said, perhaps the scales would then tip the other way. It’s all a matter of what’s best for China in the long run, and to understand that you have to consider a dynamic situation, not a static one.
I’m not suggesting that as a stratgey so much as an outcome. I don’t think you appreciate how much NK scares the shit out of the Japanese-- and for good reason. We don’t really have that much to fear from them, but the Japanese do.
This is extremely puzzling to me.
How do you propose China “stomping on” Japan that doesn’t involve the end of China as a viable civilization?
I only say that because, even without the help of the U.S., I’m pretty sure Japan would fairly easily repel any invasion of China by itself. With the help of the U.S. it’d be one of the most spectacularly failed military moves in modern history. The only other way China could conquer Japan is with its nuclear aresnal, which would be met by a strategic response from the U.S.
China doing any of the above to Japan is almost as random as our attack on Iraq, except it would have actual consequences to its responsible party.
I’m going with 0 in the near future – unless North Korea does something crazy, then all bets are off.
Bingo! Nothing much is going to change in our overall strategy if N.Korea has gone nuclear. Still, it’ll be amusing to watch the political circus that results.
I expect Japan’s nuclear status to be somewhere more in line with Israel’s in the near future. An openly acknowledged but unstated nuclear power with regional capability and functional triad. Anybody that says China can stomp Japan short of using nuclear weapons is delusional, China has no ability to significantly project force outside it’s own borders. China can’t even attempt a successful invasion of Taiwan right now and Taiwan’s military is not as large as the Japanese Self Defense Force. China would be hard pressed to invade NK without significant losses, and there would be fanatic resistance using very unconventional means. Add in to the mix the fact that South Korea would probably rather just sit tight than have China mix it up with the North. I bet the folks in Seoul believe (and they are right) that time is on their side as long as things don’t get out of hand, eventually there will be internal regime or policy change and they’ll have a good shot at reuniting the country. That prospect becomes dim with a Chinese occupied NK, look at Tibet.
I think people need to dump the paradigm* that if X is wrong in the world, then it’s the US’s job to fix X. It isn’t. And then the next paradigm to dump is that if the US doesn’t do something about X, then no one will do something about X. That’s how I see the whole NK situation playing out. There is little the US can (or should) do about NK. It’s just not our problem. It is the problem of China, Japan and SK, though. There is no reason why they can’t or won’t deal with it one way or another.
*sorry for using that word so much in this thread-- I usually hate it, too.
I’d say none. North Korea can still hurt the South, and again, you’d have a big refugee crisis for China and South Korea. Given the damage that the Kims have done to North Korea, I imagine the expense would be huge.
Err… what plane do you think they should use?
How about this bad boy?
http://www.vectorsite.net/avil28.html
No, seriously… that is actually still in service with them as their only bomber (that I’m aware of anyways).
I believe their most advanced plane is a handful of early 90s vintage Mig 29s. I suppose you could with major modification turn it into a bomber capable of deliverying the kind of crude nuclear device we’re talking about. Due to fuel shortages their pilots are down to about 10 hours of flight training per year. They have the radar signature of a barn door. They have no in flight refueling capability and the maximum range is about 2000 km… so if you have a suicide run say 4000 km. The national airline (such as it is) is so bad that the EU have banned any of their planes from their airspace, it has little to no domestic service and any flights outside of the country are known of well in advance. I think it’s safe to say given the fuel shortage that if a North Korean airliner took off without a flight plan it would get a nice armed escort as soon as it entered friendly airspace.
I agree with this to some extent. At this point we have the air power necessary to pummel NK, and land forces in place to protect Seoul. It likely will be the decision of China, Japan, and SK on how to proceed, but if the choice is military I expect the U.S. to make a limited push across the DMZ, and the provide air support.
How is this all that different.? We thought all along they had them. Now we know.
We can isolate a country that is already isolated. Wont do any good.
We should enter into talks. I believe that light needs to be shone into that pit of blackness. He has told his people over and over we want to kill them. I(f they get opened up they will find out the truth.
Why would they nuke us.? They dont have an arsenal like ours. We could obliterate them in minutes. We are discussing whether they might figure out how to get us with one. That would be very stupid. They claim to have developed nukes to protect them from us.
And the thing is, North Korea really could change overnight…if Kim slipped in the shower. It could go from insane totalitarian hellhole to normal fucked-up authoritarian shithole overnight if the right general ended up in control of the country. And then South Korea turns up the charm offensive. A normal dictatorial regime only oppresses the peasants as a means to an end, not for ideological reasons, or for fun. So the dictators ease up, sign some meaningless treaties in return for food aid. And once things let up even a little South Korea will eventually end up owning the north.
Unlikely? Maybe…but as long as North Korea is not bombing anyone, it’s not bombing anyone. Starting a war against North Korea guarantees bombings, postponing the war at least prevents bombing today. And North Korea falls farther and farther behind the rest of the world, in the 1950s North and South had comparable militaries, nowadays North Korea’s military would get cut to pieces. In totalitarian regimes everything depends on the personality of the dictator. China under Mao used to be a gigantic version of North Korea. Then Mao died, and Deng took over. And now China is transitioning into a normal country. Sure, they’ve got a lot of work even to match Mexico, but compared to the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, China is a paradise.
I agree. And in another scenario, maybe it turns out that a nulcear NK is no big deal. As long as they don’t start threatening Japan or SK, who cares what kind of weapons they have? If they ever try to use them, the world will unite and crush them like a peanut.
Answer: Exportation of nuclear technology to other rogue states or like-minded freelancers.
But who are they going to export nuclear technology to?
Iran? Iran can make their own nuclear bombs. Thing is, ANY country can build a nuclear bomb, as long as they have a source of uranium or plutonium. It would be really hard for one guy to make a bomb in his basement, but any country rich enough to have a university engineering department could make a bomb if they want to pay the price.
And North Korea certainly isn’t likely to give a nuclear bomb to Al Qaeda…if they want to set off a nuclear bomb in New York or Washington they’d try to do it themselves most likely.
North Korea wants to use its nuclear bomb to threaten the US, South Korea, Japan, China, and Russia. It doesn’t want to actually USE the bomb, because that means the end of North Korea.
Why? If you want to destroy your enemy, and someone else wants to take the rap for it, why isn’t this a capital idea?
Except how can you rely on Al Qaida to nuke New York for you? Maybe they’ll take your nuke and set it off in Bombay or Tel Aviv or Baghdad…or Pyongyang. The enemy of my enemy is frequently my enemy as well. And North Korea is the most paranoid state in existance. There’s no way they could trust a bunch of Islamic fanatics to use the bomb wisely.
And you are willing to bet the security of the US on the paranoia of Dear Leader?
Perhaps because even Condi Rice could Imagine where your terrorists got their A-bomb.
Perhaps, but there is still plausible deniability. Enough to give even Dubya pause before annihilating millions of Koreans.
No, I’m not willing to bet our security on the paranoia of the Dear Leader. I just think that the scenario is very low probability.
Anyway, whether North Korea intends to give away a nuke, or use the nuke themselves, the question becomes, what are we going to do about it?
And the answer is, there’s nothing we can do about it short of declaring war on North Korea. North Korea either has a nuke, or it doesn’t, and it will either keep its nuke or give it away, and it will either detonate its nuke or it won’t.
And there’s not much we can do about it short of promising to obliterate North Korea if they start a war.
So, if you were president what would you do? Negotiation won’t work, they’re not going to give up their nuclear hole card for any amount of food or fuel oil. The only purpose to diplomacy at this time is to keep the other parties from going wobbly. So we talk with China, Russia, South Korea and Japan and present a united front. Other than that, nothing.
Bush wouldn’t care, or hesitate for a moment. The only thing that might save NK would be the desire to blame, say, Iran and nuke them instead.
I really can’t imagine Bush caring about killing any amount of any group of people, save rich white American Christians.