Not your everyday China-Taiwan-Armageddon thread

:snerk: I’ve been hearing the same consistent predition for fifteen years now. And in other news, I expect Canada to reunite with the United States any day now.

Let me make my own prediction: if Taiwan is smart and can play a waiting game, it won’t need to declare independence. China will implode once it hits its first big recession. When a government explicitly basis its only remaining legitimacy on its ability to deliver perpetual economic growth, and is completely ineffectual in combating a culture of corruption that’s growing by the day, then it’s no exaggeration to speculate that the first solid economic downturn could well bring a civil war. If Taiwan can avoid being dragged into it, she’ll be golden.

:snort: I’ve personally been hearing about how the Nationalists will rightfully return to govern China for 25 years.

Time will tell Koxinga. Don’t count China out. If you look back on the challenges successfully met over the past 25 years, a recession isn’t going to end the CCCP. Anything less than a total collapse of the CCCP, anarchy and a Chinese civil war, Taiwan will still be veto’d out of the UN.

Given your user name, are you a big fan of CKS? Or are you in the co opted camp?

Well, while I may have missed something in thew news, I don’t recall tanks crushing dissidents in Taiwan.

While there is a great deal of economic freedoms in parts of the PRC, the political climate there is still very very cold. The fact that there are several parties with differing platforms in Taiwan would be another indicator of personal freedom that is lacking in the PRC.

:dubious: From whom? Especially in the past 10 of those 25 years?

Well, we can always keep our fingers crossed, can’t we? :smiley: But that question–whether the Beijing regime can survive over the long term–would be the subject of another thread. In the meantime, I don’t know if Taiwan really cares if it’s admitted to the UN–as long as it can make hay out of the issue. Any publicity is good publicity. The more intransigent Beijing appears in wielding its veto, the better.

Don’t know what you mean by “co opted”. And is anyone a big fan of CKS these days–except perhaps in the form of a wistful nostalgia on the part of Beijing? The guy doesn’t even have a memorial hall anymore.

IMHO Beijing will morph but survive.

Old Peanut Head marketed himself as the “modern” Koxinga.

Interesting link, but seems like the memorial hall is not officially de-CKSified. I used to jog laps around that place about 30 years ago.

One should note however, PR China has never been required to use its veto to settle this matter, if wikipedia is to be believed, despite the 15 attempts by Taiwan. How many times has this even got the chance to be voted on by the General Assembly? (We already know that if they did, it wasn’t in favor)

The most recent petition (July 07) is rejected by the Secretary-General outright. Any publicity is good publicity? Only for the politicians, IMHO.