So, what the Ohio equivalents of Miami-Dade and Palm Beach? I’m guessing that the counties that border lake Erie are very populated ones, but what others? What counties are the ones to watch?
Yum. I adore Laphroig, and I have a bottle of Ardbeg 17 I drink on life-changing occaisons.
ObVaguelyOntopic: Any other Dems kinda hoping that Bush will win, just because it’ll make the next four years fascinating?
Which Florida counties are considered in? How about Hillsborough (Tampa), Pinellas (Clearwater/St. Pete), Orange (Orlando), Dade (Miami), Broward (Ft. Lauderdale), Palm Beach?
In the same way that a 25-car “CHiPs” style pileup is fascinating…
Here’s CNN’s Ohio Country Map showing where all the support is so far.
Right now, with 8% of precincts reporting, Bush is up 6%.
Bush up 7% in FL with 53% of precincts reporting.
He’s getting clobbered so far in PA, though. With 7% in, he’s losing 35/65.
Not including the one Maine vote, if that’s ultimately confirmed.
The 15-year Laphroaig disappeared months ago, and 17-Ardbeg is long gone. If I win, I may try to convince B to get a 30-Laphroaig for me – or at least, the cash equivalent of a 10/15-Laphroaig and I’ll make up the difference. I have a small window of opportunity in which to drink a single malt that’s older than I am.
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Exit polling in MN says Kerry 54-45.
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As best as I recall, Cuyahoga = Cleveland, Franklin = Columbus, Montgomery = Dayton. Some other areas possibly in play: Canton, Toledo, more urban areas along the I-75 corridor, Hamilton to a lesser extent. Also areas around universities might help Kerry. I’d expect the rural parts to be solidly behind Bush.
In the Senate race that’s most relevant to me, Specter’s getting pummelled by the challenger. Which is kind of sad to me. I firmly believe in supporting the few endangered moderate Republicans left, and I voted for Arlen this morning.
My single Republican vote.
I don’t see any differences in the maps, but MSNBC, CNN, & C-SPAN have different electoral votes for Bush (156, 155 & 153 respectively)
Broward and Palm Beach have already started to weigh in for Kerry, according to CNN. Orange, Hillsborough, and Pinellas are leaning slightly to Bush.
Gotta say, it does look like Kerry has a hard row to hoe in Florida. He’ll probably get another 200,000 votes out of Palm Beach, and there’s still Miami-Dade, but Bush still has a lot of votes to claim too. Kerry’s chances are better in Ohio.
How’s Badnarik doing? No one I’ve seen is reporting any 3rd party guys except Nader.
Hmm.
A quick tour of the CNN web site shows that in every close state, Kerry is doing better in the exit polling than he is in tallied vote counts. I realize that in most of these states, there aren’t enough votes in for anything to be conclusive. But every single one? Is this meaningful? If it’s still that way with more of the vote in, then will it be meaningful?
-P
I warned my parents (who live in PA) about this very thing, but no, they insisted Specter was safe regardless of how they voted. Alas.
I don’t know. What would be good for Badnarik?
In Kentucky, Bunning and Mongiardo are literally neck and neck. It’s a 50/50 split with 91% reporting.
It’s looking very good for Bush in Florida. By my tally, if he takes Florida, and picks up the one EV he’s expected to get in Maine, that gives him 249 EVs, without the fifth Nebraska EV that’s still in play.
If I’m right, Kerry must win Ohio, because its 20 EVs would give Bush 269 EVs, guaranteeing him at least a tie. As the House of Reps is held by the Republicans, that would mean a Bush win.
If Kerry wins Ohio, then Bush must pick up 20 votes out of MN, IA, NV, NM NH and WI, which have 41 overall (42 with the extra vote from NE). (I’m assuming Kerry takes MI and PA.)
Respectively: leaning very slightly to Kerry, leaning to Bush, and no results posted. Heaven only knows at this point.
Either MSNBC or CBS reported this is what the Bush war room had noticed.
In the CNN site, for Florida, Nader shows 1% (at 19,000) and Badnarik less than 0.5%, about 7,000. Of course, since Florida is in serious play you’d expect a much lower “3rd party” vote here. Right now I’d say the alternatives have had minimal to no impact on the Florida race. Might turn out different at the end of the day, though.