For me the biggest question is: who are the people still holding TSL?
It must be clear to absolutely everyone that, long term, TSL is going to be a penny stock.
The name “Musk” is absolutely toxic in the circles “normal” Tesla buyers are in.
People are now not so much proudly bragging about owning a Tesla as much as quietly admitting they own a Tesla.
How is not everyone dumping TSL? It is still ridiculously overpriced. It is worth more than Mercedes and they (Mercedes) are actually making real progress with self driving.
Now I’m recalling the opening of Arthur C. Clarke’s “A Meeting With Medusa”, where a drone vehicle crash is traced to a commlink being rerouted from close-in satellites to geosynchronous ones, adding about a half second of lag to the feedback loop…
Teslas were a big deal when fully-electric vehicles were a novelty. They were an attractive alternative to your stereotypical smart car. But now most manufacturers have at least one fully-electric option and there is a lot of variety. It feels like Tesla had its day, and now Musk’s bad decisions and general antics are hastening it toward irrelevancy.
There was a time, maybe a decade ago, where I thought a Tesla would be my dream car. Now, I’m sure my next vehicle will be electric but I wouldn’t even consider a Tesla.
We’re loving our Cadillac Lyriq (although GM has fallen on its face with how it does updates) and we’re REALLY hoping Rivian and Lucid make it. The Rivian is a fully baked albeit expensive product, and the Lucid is insane, but a sedan. Their SUV comes out soon. Crazy tech.
I don’t base my vehicle purchasing decisions on the person who runs the company. That seems extremely irresponsible for such a huge decision. I just think that their vehicles are not a great value. I can get a great electric vehicle for much less elsewhere.
If Tesla came out with a great vehicle that was competitively priced, I’d reconsider, but I don’t see that happening when they’re so focused on Elon’s stupid vanity projects. Tesla might not even be around by the time I make another car purchase (which I expect would be around 10 years from now, maybe a bit sooner).
Huh, well that’s a take. We keep cars for at least a decade, and it would be extremely irresponsible to not take into account the erratic behavior of the owner of that company, given that’s a relationship formed for at least a decade, and I’m going to be dependent on them for service and support. But there we are.
No, that factors in. If I think the company isn’t going to be able to support my car because they will go under, or they will do stupid shit like force an update to my car’s computer that screws it up, that is part of my decision-making. Elon being a Trump-supporting asshole who spouts racist shit and turns Twitter into a Nazi-friendly scam festival doesn’t matter to me (in terms of whether or not I’ll buy a Tesla), yet it absolutely matters to:
A bus that costs $100K to buy costs another $100K in driver expense every year. The whole and entire point of the entire exercise is to eliminate the paid labor of drivers. That’s where the cost savings is.
Whether we’re talking Elmo’s silly robotaxi experiment, Uber’s original business plan, or what Tesla is doing with FSD in their private passenger cars, its all about eliminating the expense of paid drivers.
But a single bus that costs $100k will require some where between 4 to 8 of these vehicles each to replace plus a hefty maintenance contract and/or retrained district mechanics. Plus all the new charging infrastructure.
That plus a lot of school districts (all the ones in and around the Houston area, anyway) don’t spend anything like $100k on driver expenses per bus a year. Might be better if they did, come to think of it.
Sure, they might come out breakeven in a few years, but that still means a hefty up front investment.
In a few more years when new, less expensive players come into the picture and the overall charging infrastructure is improved, I could believe that some company could come up with some way of doing EV school buses, maybe even with some form of autonomy, and do so in a cost effective manner. I sincerely doubt that company is present-day Tesla. Or foreseeable-future Tesla, for that matter. That’s never been a company that really wanted to market to the hoi polloi.
ETA: But it would love to be a company that got fat guaranteed contracts from smitten politicians and true believers to provide merely the promise of solutions for problems it has no real idea how to solve. I do believe that. It would be the Boring Company in Las Vegas writ upon the entire nation.
Except that you’re still gonna need an adult chaperone in that vehicle because, as noted above, there’s no way any sane parent would be OK with their kid being thrown into a pod with 11 other kids unsupervised. And if you’re already paying that adult to be there, why not have them drive as well? And since the pod only holds 12 people, you’re gonna need 8 of them to replace one bus that can hold 80 students.
So instead of a $100k bus and a $100k driver, you’ve got 8 pods at $30k (if that winds up being the price, which it won’t be), plus 8 chaperones and 8 insurance policies, and you’re now spending way more money than you were for that bus and driver to begin with.
The chaperone thing is indeed the gut-buster. Unless each kid is chained into their seat by the robot and they all live in fear of the robot putting adverse entries in their Permanent Record. See, 1984 isn’t so bad? Certainly better than Musk’s vision for 2026.
I find this whole line of conversation amusing, because in my country, school buses have a minimum of two adults on board at all times — one to drive, and one (and sometimes two) to actually supervise the children, because we understand that driving is a full-time responsibility. In principle, there’s no reason you couldn’t let the bus drive itself, because you still have the adult chaperone. But if there’s only 12 seats on this hypothetical bus-pod thing, then that means only 11 passengers, and even more buses to procure overall. Never gonna happen.
In a recent discussion on an investing forum, I pointed out that almost none of the “super investors” invest in Tesla (folks like Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, Terry Smith, Monish Pobrai). Of the 90 acknowledged as super investors, only one holds Tesla stock. It’s the only Magnificent 7 stock the world’s largest, most successful investors avoid. All of them hold some of the others, and have specific reasons for those they don’t (Buffett doesn’t hold Microsoft because he’s friends with Bill Gates, many are still wary of Nvidia, etc).
The core of the debate seems to boil down to the fans who insist it’s a tech company vs investors who see it as a car company. Viewed as the latter it’s over-valued, poorly run, and has a small market share that’s on the decline. And most don’t see any car companies as great investments, anyway.
I don’t understand why everyone assumes the robo-bus only has 12 seats, other than the prototype being that size. Putting a battery pack under an existing big yellow bus doesn’t seem like it would that big a deal, much less designing one from scratch.
It’s a safe assumption that this self-absorbed blowhard, who not only has no real involvement in the upbringing of his 374 children but almost invariably finds himself cut off from them as soon as they’re old enough to make that choice, would have no idea how buses or school transportation generally or indeed anything parenting-related should work, and would therefore do something stupid like make an unworkably small bus.
“It’s one banana, how much could it cost” = “it’s one school bus, how many seats could it need.”
I understand that in theory this is a sensible statement.
But in practice it’s some combination of incredibly naive and poorly considered.
As I mentioned above, I could see some company designing cost effective EV buses but not Tesla.
Tesla, as Elon Musk envisions it, is a tech company looking to continually make the next shiny new tech toy or application at tremendous profit margins. Not a company that provides socially useful goods and services.
The idea Musk would go with a deeply “unsexy” idea like using the existing design for school buses is one of the more ludicrous things I may have heard in the last several weeks.
He’s rather the sort to tell you he has a brilliant idea for re-imagining school buses (note: ideas that aren’t novel, brilliant or even very good) and never mention the cost. Oh wait. That’s basically what he did.