Now That Prince George Was Born, Is The Impetus for Succession Reform Gone?

Great Debates
1

I’ve tended to notice that governments only tend to act when there is a need for them to act. If there is no external force (social, economic, military, whatever…) acting on them to achieve something, then they rarely tend to do anything.

When Prince William married Kate Middleton, there was awareness of the fact that her firstborn child would, someday, sit on the British Throne. Since there was a significant chance that the firstborn could be a girl, and since (mostly) everyone felt that it was time to dump male-preferred primogeniture, there was pressure on the British government (and those of the other Commonwealth nations) to adopt absolute primogeniture. To that end, the British government passed the Succession To The Throne Act 2013 which states that all children will succeed in birth order (for those born after Oct 28, 2011).

However, in order for the Act to take effect, it must also be passed in each of the Commonwealth realms. There is a wiki page which tracks the actions taken by the Commonwealth nations in passing their own versions of the Act.

I’ve noticed that there was considerable activity towards making the Act effective in the months leading up to the birth of Prince George. However, since his birth on July 22, it does not look like there has been any activity.

Of course, barring anything terrible happening, it looks like a woman won’t get to sit on the British Throne as a Queen Regnant for at least another 60+ years (since the next five people in the line of succession are all males and the first three cannot be displaced by the birth of a daughter). That being the case, is it possible that the impetus for reform is gone*?

Or are the Commonwealth Realms just being slow?

Zev Steinhardt

  • Such was what happened in Japan. In Japan, only men can sit on the Throne – women are ineligible to rule at all. However, there were no boys born in the Royal Family for a period of about forty years, leading to a potential crisis and to real talk of reform. However, all that ended when the Emperor’s second son had a boy in 2006.
2

Summer recess? Australia have had a General Election. Dunno.

3

It seems to me that it would be the perfect time for reform since the conservatives don’t have to contemplate having another woman on the throne after the current one for a half-century, they won’t get too excited about it. Let’s face it, Liz 2 is a non-wave making monarch without any personal controversy. Passing it now would be the ultimate kicking the can down the road. But they have at least half a century to do so. If they want to even have a monarch that far in the future.

4

Considering that the tendency towards longevity in the House of Windsor means that it’s unlikely for any issue of William’s to become monarch earlier than, say, 2075, I can’t imagine the matter was deemed to be too urgent in the first place.

5

Well, there will probably be a spare…

6

Well, the law has already been passed in the UK (with the proviso that it comes into force when the other Realms have passed similar legislation), so I think it’s too far down the track to be halted, as bills are in motion is all of the Realms as far as I am aware.

I know that the Japanese Parliament gave up trying when a male was born into the Imperial Succession.

7

I believe that it will happen slowly over the next few years- the heads of Government have agreed to change the laws- it is just a case of passing the legislation and I cannot see anyone changing their minds (if it happens I suspect there would be some severe communication from their head of state!)

8

!!! Really?! By Jingo!

9

It could potentially be an issue, if Will & Kate have a girl, then a second son, and then George Alexander dies of leukemia or something. Very hypothetical, but best to finish the change now.

10

Except she probably didn’t exist. And while there have been female Emperors, they were all before the 19th century, when the law was changed to exclude women.

It only really became an issue in Japan, though, because, first, the Meiji reforms outlawed polygamy for the Imperial family, and second, after the Second World War, the United States removed most of the Imperial family from the line of succession.

The Japanese situation is different from the British one, though, because in Britain, there are a lot of people who could become king, even if they’re not descended from Prince Charles or even Queen Elizabeth. In Japan, though, there are only 7 people in the world who could be Emperor. If they all die, no one in the world can legally be the Emperor.

11

could you elaborate? why are there only 7 people who could become Emperor?

12

Before 1947, the Imperial family consisted of not only the Emperor and his immediate family, but also what were called the shinnoke and the oke lines, which were 11 collateral families descended from previous emperors. Any male member of these families was eligible to become Emperor.

In 1947, the Japanese Government passed the Imperial Household Law of 1947, which restricted the Imperial family to the Emperor, his sons and unmarried daughters, and their descendants , his brothers, their sons and unmarried daughters and their descendants, and his mother.

Emperor Showa had two sons, the current Emperor and Prince Hitachi (and some daughters, who are not in the line of succession). The current Emperor has two sons, Crown Prince Naruhito and Prince Akishino. Crown Prince Naruhito has one daughter, who isn’t in the line of succession. Prince Akishino has two daughters and a son, Prince Hisohito.

Prince Hitachi, who I mentioned above, has no children.

The Showa Emperor had three brothers. Prince Chichibu died in 1953 with no children. Prince Takamasu died in 1987 with no children. Prince Mikasa is 97 and still alive.

Prince Mikasa had three sons. The oldest, Prince Tomohito, who died in 2012, only had daughters. The second, Prince Katsura, is not married and has no children. The third, Prince Takamado, who died in 2002, only had daughters.

So, after the current Emperor, the line of succession goes.

  1. Crown Prince Naruhito
  2. Prince Akishino
  3. Prince Hisohito
  4. Prince Hitachi
  5. Prince Mikasa
  6. Prince Katsura

And that’s it. Nobody’s after Prince Katsura. And unless the Crown Prince (who’s 53 and whose wife is 49) or Prince Akishino (who’s 47 and whose wife is 46), have more children, which isn’t likely given their ages or their wife’s ages, or Prince Katsura, who’s 65 and paralyzed from the waist down after suffering from strokes gets married and has kids, then the future of the entire Imperial family rests on 7 year old Prince Hisohito. If something were to happen to him before he had sons, then, unless they change the succession law, there’s no change the above line of succession will get new members.

There have been proposals to change the law, by either letting daughters inherit (which pisses off Japanese traditionalists, who consider a female Emperor unnatural, and worse, would mean that a new dynasty would come to the throne, something that’s never happened before in Japanese history), or restoring the shinnoke and oke lines.

13

Well, there’s that ‘barring a terrible thing’ thing. Imagine that William’s second child is a girl. Imagine that an assassination attempt is made on George when he’s at school.

The impetus is still there.

14

There’s no law that says the Queen of the UK has to be the Queen of Canada. So if a daughter succeeds to the throne of the UK before her younger brother, Canada or Australia could just make the younger brother their King, even though the UK has a different monarch.

Of course, if that happened, they’d just quickly pass a law. Ever since Charles I, the monarch is whoever parliament says it is.

The other option is to finally become a republic, and stop messing about with farcical aquatic ceremonies and moistened bints flinging scimitars.

15

Yes, there is - the Statute of Westminster makes all changes to the line of succession void unless all the Commonwealth Realms pass exactly similar legislation to change it.
Of course one might argue that the Statute of Westminster would no longer be justiciable in Canadian Law in view of the patriation of the British North America Act - but it’s hardly likely that Canada would want to be out of step with the others.
I suspect that many of those countries which have not changed the law will view it as a low priority.

16

I think Britain will have two consecutive Queens. The present Monarch will outlive her son, grandson and great-grandson and eventually celebrate a Diamond-and-Gold Jubilee. The throne will pass to Prince George’s oldest child who will reign as Elizabeth III.

17

Yeah, when I said there wasn’t a law, I was totally wrong. There is a law. So the exact opposite of what I said.

But, as I said before, the monarch is whoever Parliament says is the monarch. If Canada hasn’t voted to change the law, and the UK gets tired of waiting around for them, and it would make a difference, all they have to do is pass a quick “Fuck Canada” bill, and there you go.

18

The OP misses the critical point completely. Since the law passed in the UK, then there should be incentive to pass it immediately in the rest of the Commonwealth because honestly, is there a reason to NOT pass it now? Could you imagine if it never get passed in some Commonwealth countries and George has a girl then a boy and no one in those Commonwealth countries remember they never passed it 20-25 years from now.

I think there is a small and non-zero probability that if this gets delayed that there may be two different rulers for various countries of the Commonwealth.

19

Well, no, as was pointed out previously, any changes to the line of succession have to be made in all Commonwealth countries to take effect.

Zev Steinhardt

20

Well, if it comes to that (or any other scenario where an older sister would be pushed aside for her younger brothers), then the impetus for change would return, as it existed before Princess William had a boy.

Zev Steinhardt