Groups that shifted toward Republicans
Race 2012 2024 NET SHIFT
Black D +91 D +72 R +19
95 - 4 85 - 13
Hispanic D +39 D +10 R +29
69 - 30 54 - 44
Asian D +35 D +18 R +17
67 - 32 58 - 40
Other D +18 D +1 R +17
58 - 40 49 - 48
Race and Education
White, no degree
R +24 R +36 R +13
37 - 61 31 - 67
Nonwhite, BA+
D +58 D +37 R +21
78 - 20 67 - 30
Nonwhite, no degree
D +64 D +27 R +37
82 - 17 63 - 35
Age
18 to 29 D +25 D +11 R +14
61 - 36 54 - 43
30 to 44 D +9 D +2 R +8
53 - 44 49 - 48
45 to 64 R +1 R +9 R +8
49 - 50 45 - 54
All the handwaving in the world won’t make this go away. The Democrats have their work cut out for them to win the groups back and frankly I don’t see it happening any time soon.
The only groups that shifted toward Democrats were:
Groups that shifted toward Democrats
Race 2012 2024 NET SHIFT
White R +17 R +15 D +1
42 - 57 41 - 57
Race and Education
White, BA+
R +5 D +12 D +17
46 - 52 55 - 43
Age
65 and older
R +7 R +3 D +4
48 - 51 46 - 53
Sadly, he’s the president of the US and is enabled by a cabal of power-hungry immoral oligarchs. So yeah, he has a lot of power over me and many (most?) inhabitants of the planet.
Before the election, I frequently got snarked at by my millenial son, about how all of this is the BOOMERS’ fault and the sooner we got out of the way and handed things over to his generation, the better off we would all be.
So what do the above cited NYT data show? Boomers showed a (tiny) shift to the Dems, while the millenials and alphas embraced MAGA.
Way to go, kids. I guess you just don’t remember how bad it was last time.
Why would you make that assumption? I think this election was way more a referendum on Biden and the economy, then on Trump. I don’t think the republican candidate necessarily mattered that much to a lot of voters. They didn’t like the direction of the country and voted against the incumbent. I think Nikki Haley would probably have won by more. But even if you think it is a Trump specific problem, he isn’t going to be on the ballot in 4 years unless things completely fall apart.
Sure they will try, though our institutions are vast and messy and they are kind of incompetent and lazy so I’m not sure how much success they will have. All the more reason though to try to win as many election as you can in the short term to work to stop the erosion. There is no reason to punt a decade because got edged out of an election.
Did they shift right, or did they think the Democratic message that “the economy is great honest” is not listening to their experiences and they voted for the other guy? Demographics are not destiny. You lose voters, you listen to them and work to get them back. The good news is a lot of their problem was Biden and inflation and those will not be issues in the next election. So you got to work on messaging and got to accept that traditional way of campaigning doesn’t reach the voters you need, but these are fixable problems. The Dems remain on the popular side of most issues. They just need to get out of their bubble and listen and communicate better.
I completely disagree. If someone believes Trump would do a better job on the economy than Harris then they’re a lost cause. That’s past laughable and into insane territory. (Check with me in 12 months about whether energy costs have been cut in half) If voters can’t see what a great job Biden did on the economy, then I don’t know what we can do about that. If people think the border “problem” is any different than it’s been for the past 40 years, then they’re completely suspectable to lies and distortions. Voters either believed that Harris would get rid of all ICE vehicles, cows, and gender, (in which case they’re idiots) or they know Trump is a liar of unprecedented proportions and voted for him anyway (what does that say about the future of America?)
It’s not a “Trump specific problem.” But he has certainly exposed the problem. People want empty and malicious promises. Someone else can do that.
Problem is, a lot of the electorate are in bubbles in which they can’t hear anything the Democrats are saying.
It’s difficult to communicate with people who’ve got their ears plugged.
A lot of people are going to have direct impacts on their lives that they aren’t expecting, if Trump and/or the 2025 people manage to pull off a quarter of what they’re talking about. I have some faint hope that this will indeed be blamed on the Republicans; especially since they took the trifecta.
I don’t think anyone in or out of this thread has yet advanced a sound solution for how the Left wins back voters. We’re still trying to figure it out. People have cause for skepticism that these proposed solutions will work. You don’t think so?
Huh? Of course Trump successfully appealed to voters (though I think in many cases it was unhappiness with the current party than actively liking Trump). but I think saying they drifted to the right is a misunderstanding of why voters voted the way they did. There is nothing conservative about tariffs for instance. As you mentioned Trump is a populist, but so is Sanders. A lot of these voters don’t care about political parties or really politics, they just vote for someone who they think understand their issues and will work to fix them, (of course they might be highly misguided in this belief)
What I don’t understand is why you think voters who voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 can’t be persuaded to vote for the Democrat in 2028. When was the last time the incumbent party in the U.S. didn’t lose margin share? Bush’s 2nd term?
If someone is really engaged in politics then yes they are probably going to think Harris’s economic plans are better. And if fact they do. Harris won the vote or people who pay attention to politics. A lot of people don’t though. They do not have the time or interest to follow policy proposals or legal arguments. You might think all voters should know all about tariffs, or immigration raids, or felony convictions, but a lot of these people have absolutely no knowledge of it. They might know Trump says crazy things and Harris has a weird laugh. Those are voters who swung wildly to Trump. Now you can give up on them, but it is going to be hard to win elections that way. I don’t think they are lost causes though. I think you need to communicate with them and have a message that resonates. The GOP greatest success lately is reaching these voters through social media, podcasts and other places where they are. That is what the Democrats need to figure out how to do.
The truth is that we’re a very divided nation with seemingly intractable differences. We can’t even agree on basic facts and I don’t see a viable path for reconciliation of these differences. I’m not arguing we shouldn’t try, but I’m not seeing a way forward until things get bad and people decide maybe Trumpism isn’t a good idea. Hopefully we won’t have to wait until heads start rolling for people to decide Trump was a bad idea.
The simplest thing is to pay attention to house members who won in districts Harris lost. They figured something out, so we shouldn’t act like this is an impossible problem. I don’t think the Democrats did a great job of focusing on economic issues that voters care about. I also don’t think anything else on your list matters as much if voters prefer you on the economy.