With all the madness within which Europe has recently found itself entrenched, and with Obama fresh off of a foreign tour designed to boost his credentials as a leader on the world stage, how should he handle the current quagmire in the caucasus?
In my view, this whole situation has the potential to either damage his candidacy irreperably, or, on the flipside, solidify him once and for all as a principled leader able to make crucial calculations regarding both our enemies and allies. Obama being on vacation in Hawaii while the shit was getting ready to hit the fan wasn’t a good look at all, but what makes things even worse is that Mcain, as much as I dislike him, has managed to make himself look like more of a leader with his “tough stance” on Russia, and his close ties to Georgia, and the Georgian President. Now, to the more informed voter, Mcain’s hawkish approach will of course be looked upon with a greater scrutiny, but to an electorate that already views him as having the edge on issues relating to foreign policy, this doesn’t bode very well for Obama - unless he approaches it the right way.
Instead of parroting the usual talking points in condemning Russian aggression, I feel that Obama should make it as clear as possible that while Russian aggression and goals of territorial expansion will not be tolerated, our allies have responsibilities to bear as well, and that not everything they decide to get themselves into will illicit the response they might have been hoping for for from the United States - especially allies who have aspirations of joining NATO and reaping the benefits that go along with that privledge. He needs to make this point forcefully, extolling the principle of the matter, without coming across as pinning all the blame on Georgia, of course. He’s already hinted that this was his position, and I think shying away from it out of a perceived politcal cost would be a big mistake. Then again, I’m no political consultant, tis’ just how I see things.
What, you think the U.S. is going to go to war with Russia over Georgia? Absolutely not happening. I agree that this is an opportunity to show some knowledge that Obama should not pass up, but he’ll be back on the trail in a couple of days and it’s not like McCain can do anything except talking, either.
So far it sounds like Obama is doing the nuance thing and saying that Georgia bears some of the responsibility for what’s going on. I don’t know what McCain has said about it to this point, but I think both of them are going to end up saying that Russia needs to get out, but this is a problem Europe has to deal with.
McCain has certainly been sounding very militant (“We are all Georgians”), and President Saakashvili of Georgia has been calling upon McCain to put his money, arms and troops where his mouth is, apparently not realizing that McCain is not actually the president and can’t do anything.
Whether or not McCain would actually go in militarily is open to question, and also subject very much to change. A lot depends on what Russia will be doing over the next few days, as it now appears that Russia may in fact be going all the way and swallowing Georgia whole. Now Poland, Ukraine, and other former Soviet satellites are getting very upset. All of this per the cites provided by Magiver in post #278 (page 7) of this thread (Is Russia determined to be an empire again?).
I will say that it seems to me that McCain has never met a war he didn’t like.
Now would be a good time for Obama to point out Bush policies these last 8 years makes the US far less capable of meeting this threat militarily if it actually wanted to.
Whatever McCain might want sending in the Marines just is not an option. The US is reduced to strongly worded speeches.
That said even if our military was ready to go I seriously doubt the US would go to fight Russia over Georgia. And even if we wanted to I doubt Turkey would be cool with it (and we’d pretty much have to stage out of there).
Last I heard Obama and McCain were saying kind of the same thing about this although that was a few days ago…maybe their rhetoric has changed some.
I don’t think Obama should have made statements spreading blame in the direction of the Georgians - this is an instance where his eloquence has screwed him. Whatever beef the Russians had should have been resolved without their having to storm over an internationally recognized international boundary - and Obama shouldn’t minimize this.
Diplomacy behind the scenes can address the Ossetian issue, but public statements ought to be pro-Georgian and ought to support sanctions against Russia should they continue the conflict. McCain is on the right track here, though his rhetoric may go slightly too far ("…we are all Georgians") his level of support is right where it needs to be.
It strikes me that holding someone blameless who is not blameless is dishonest. We’ve seen where such dishonesty leads in Iraq. Unless he supports the continuation of a dishonest foreign policy, McCain needs to publicly acknowledge that this is not entirely a black and white, us or them issue.
Mr. Moto, I understand entirely your horror at what the Russians are doing, but the Georgians actually attacked Russian troops resident in S. Ossetia and S. Ossetia civilians, about a third of whom were officially Russian citizens (see, it says so right there on the passports Russia foisted on them!). Whether or not Russia should have been in S. Ossetia is a different story; the fact is, they had been there under agreement since 1992, and Georgia coming militarily into Georgia was not the wise way to go about it, because it gave justification to Russia to do exactly what it has done.
Under the same circumstances (US. "peacekeepers (soldiers) and citizens being killed), we would have also crossed borders. We probably would not have moved beyond S. Ossetia borders )a;, but we would have gone into S. Ossetia.
I am not saying that what Russia is doing is not monstrous or that it is not a power grab. It is. I’m also not saying that Russia didn’t provoke Georgia; it probably did. That doesn’t change the fact that Georgia screwed up, probably with our encouragement. That doesn’t mean Georgia deserves what’s happening to it. But it does mean they’re not totally without blame in this.
McCain is a candidate for president, not the actual president. Traditionally, candidates for president hold back on implementing their foreign policy until they actually become president.
Besides the effect of needlessly politicizing the Georgian crisis here at home, McCain’s actions, and the Bush administration’s failure to offer him any rebuke, make it clear to everyone just how lame a duck we have in the white house.
Emphasizing that is not in America’s best interest, and the experienced McCain should know that.
Unfortunately, McCain (and largely America) has absolutely no bite in this issue and embarasses the nation by his continual barking because it only calls attention to it.
Most excellent question, Sir/Madam. Remind me again, how many Israeli soldiers died initially? And how many Lebanese were wasted in response? I’m almost waiting on pins and needles to hear Mr Moto’s response.
Well, not quite. I’ve heard it all before – a gazillion times at that. Rule number ONE, the US is always right. Rule number TWO, if ever in the wrong apply rule number ONE
Say, apropos of nothing did you know Mr Moto was in the US Navy? No? Ask him, he’s always willing to relay all sorts of information about his stint – interesting stuff if you’re still into Ancient Trivial Pursuit
PS-Dang you Oy! for getting moi involved in this silliness!
Out of curiosity Red, you don’t see this situation (wrt Georgia and Russia) as dire? Important? All you see is that it is a neo-con election ploy? I basically agree btw (though I think both sides are getting mileage out of this), but then I’m safely in America…not in Europe where this may all blow up in MY face.
Personally I think it’s Europe’s problem, not ours. Let THEM deal with it.
That one disturbed me quite a lot - not least because Israel got little for its efforts. But just to be clear - an area of a neutral country that has been taken over by hostile forces that are shooting at you no longer possesses a neutrality that needs to be scrupulously respected should you decide to defend yourself.
In the case of Georgia and South Ossetia - there was no such excuse when it came to Russia.
As for Graham and Lieberman - while I would consider it unseemly for campaign staff to go to Georgia, these men are Senators - both sit on the Armed Services Committee and Graham also sits on the Intelligence Committee. It isn’t unseemly for a senator to go, no matter their relationship to a campaign - they are elected officials.
