Will McCain make inroads or just po his conservative base?
Neither candidate is attractive to hispanics. Why should a hispanic vote for Obama over McCain? Neither candidate is particularly soft on immigration. In fact, Obama’s position on immigration more closely resembles Bush’s immigration stance than McCain’s stated policy does.
His immigration stance was one of the very few things i ever agreed with Bush on, and it used to closely match McCains. McCain really can’t win here, he could have gotten a lot of the latino votes if he stuck with his original proposal but theres no way he could do that without pissing off his base.
McCain is foolishly pandering to a group that isn’t going to vote for him. George W. Bush has long done the same.
Hispanics tend not to vote in large numbers. When they vote at all, they tend to vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats, largely because the Democrats offer more in the way of financial benefits.
The Hispanic vote will not be large or significant this time out- but the few Hispanics who DO vote are going to vote for Obama. McCain would be foolish to spend more than the bare minimum amount of time and money wooing them.
I have pointed this out previously in the “Will Texas turn blue?” thread but so far they seem quite energized. Pew (pdf) gives some numbers. While all-comers Dem turn-out was huge this year, it was even more increased among the Latino population. Up from 2004’s numbers as a percentage of the total in 16 out of 19 states. Up from 16 to 30% in California. Up from 24 to 32% in Texas - which, given the larger turnout translates to an increase from 200K to 900K! Major voter registration drives are in progress outside of the partisan campaigns. Hard to conclude with confidence that this demographic will be neither large or significant in at least some states this time out.
So far the polling data shows this population going for Obama 2 to 1 but McCain clearly hopes to make inroads. Thing is that Obama can be consistent with his message of border control and immigration reform while McCain can court the Hispanic vote only so far before he has to pander back to the Right. Will he satisfy one, the other, both or neither? He risks making neither happy as he struggles to find a point of balance.
All of those hispanics turned out in the primaries to vote for HILLARY. They are absolutely not excited about Obama, and the only reason they’re splitting “2 for 1” for him is that lots of them think McCain is even worse. People don’t like turning up on voting day to vote for the lesser of two evils, and I think if you expect hispanics to turn out for the general election in the same numbers they did for the primaries, you’re going to be greatly disappointed.
In what states is this really going to matter? Right now, I can safely say that CA goes Obama, AZ goes McCain, TX goes McCain. That leaves NM and then maybe NV and CO as states where Hispanics could influence the vote.
If Obama picks Richardson, then he can count on NM. NV and CO aren’t going to carry this election either way. The battles will still be fought in the Midwest.
Florida is a unique case as the Cuban population is overwhelmingly Republican.
Something else to remember before we get too excited about the increased turnout in the Texas Democratic primary: Party nominations are almost always sewn up long before the Texas primaries are held. Not surprisingly, turnout tends to be low, because it’s usually irrelevant. The GOP turnout was pitiful this year because McCain already had it in the bag.
The Democrats in Texas weren’t energized because they loved Hillary or Obama so much- it’s because, for a change, the race was very close and their vote actually mattered!
Richardson currently seems like a longshot and I certainly wouldn’t assume him as VP. So yes NM, NV, CO … 19 EVs between 'em … in those the Hispanic vote is pivotal and a solid lead in that demographic, especially with a good turn-out, would be killer. FL? You’re likely correct, I doubt that the general Hispanic numbers translate there where the Cuban vote is so big… we’ll leave FL out of this analysis for now. TX I for one do not entirely write off with a huge Hispanic turnout and an apathetic Texas GOP uninspired by McCain for multiple reasons (which is not outside of possibility) but TX is unlikely to tip things - if Obama wins there then he is likely winning everywhere. Could those three (NM, V, CO) be “tipping states”? Well if Obama only otherwise carries those states that Kerry won, and loses OH, FL, MO, IO, etc. while carrying that bloc of three - then Obama still wins. If he takes Kerry states except he loses NH and wins IO (c.w. currently leranings in polls) Obama wins with those three.
Yes, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and so on are important. But those three are polling close and could be the states that swing an election.
astorian why them so much more so than other Democrats? Up from 24% to 34% of the Democratic turnout. That means that non-Hispanic Democratic turnout decreased in percent of the total from 76% to just 56% of the total. Yoour explanation just doesn’t wash.
An interesting analysis that shows how NM, CO, and NV (and hence the Hispanic turnout) could be critical.
A strong Hispanic turnout voting strongly for Obama would assure him of victories in CO and NM which gives him a fail-safe if he loses OH and the election is otherwise close.
He will make inroads.
Hispanics, especially immigrants like members of my family, respect age (rather than merely finding it funny) and seniority, respect military service, are socially conservative to a greater degree than others, and – as pointed out in TX in the primaries – often feel that black minorities get more attention when it comes to set asides and social engineering issues. They are also drawn to auras of sincerity and honor (McCain, deservedly or not) over snarkiness and smug sarcasm (Obama, very deservedly).
Policies, you say? If elections were about policies only, Obama wouldn’t be the nominee and pro-life candidates would never have won.
Update: Obama now leads McCain among Hispanics by nearly 3 to 1.
Yes, that’s right, Obama is even taking the Cuban American demographic handily.