This article references the potential role of the Hispanic vote in several upcoming primaries. The Clintons have established national relationships with several Hispanic blocs. Obama has had good Hispanic support in his home state but nationally is less known to Hispanics for that than for the fact that he is identified as a Black man. For some Hispanics that plays a significant role apperntly.
Now in Nevada I think Bill’s recent antics and the failed attempt to decrease the accessibility of casino workers (often Hispanic) to the polls will squander some of HRC’s advantage, but how much of a factor will this play in other Hispanic heavy states on 2/5? How important will Richardson’s endorsement be?
Personally I see a Richardson endorsement for HRC as helping her minimally as her support is already good, but one of Obama as helping Obama dramatically.
And if Richardson is pegged for VP, how big of a factor will his ethnicity be in swing states come the general? How about in Florida? Will a Mexican-Cuban animosity make it a potential negative there rather than a positive?
What role? Does it make Latinos* more or less inclined to vote for him?
I accept Michael Barone’s argument that, for a Latin American or person of Latin American extraction, “Latino” is a more appropriate term than “Hispanic,” as “Latino” includes Brazilians and does not implicitly include European Spaniards.
My wife manages the interpretation department for a Chicago South Side hospital, dealing with Spanish speaking patients daily. She herself was born and raised in Peru and lived a good while in Virginia near DC working in Latino affairs. Her old neighborhood in Virginia had a strong South American Latino presence, Chicago has a strong Mexican & Central American Latino presence.
According to her, there is a very strong tendancy towards anti-black racisim in “newer” Latino families, especially first generation. Obama’s “they voted for me” was a good joke but ignores that he was running against an even “blacker” Republican candidate in Alan Keyes. She thinks Obama’s race will prove a real liability in the primaries among Latino voters.
As for the general election, who knows? Everything I’ve read suggests that the immigration debacle has completely blown the Republican in-roads Bush made in the Latino community.
I’ve often wondered about that, too. I know he’s recognized in his home state of NM as being Hispanic, but that’s a pretty small state. He does make a point of bringing up his Hispanic background, although he never got the kind of attention Clinton, Obama, and Edwards got, so I’m not sure how effective he was in getting the word out.
He definitely has a legit claim to being Hispanic, in my opinion. He grew up as a kid mostly in Mexico, and although he has an Anglo last name, it’s from his paternal grandfather. Three of his grandparents (I assume the other ones) were actually Mexican citizens.
Doubtful. The Tampa Cubans have no particular animosity to Mexicans AFAIK, and the Miami Cubans always vote Pub anyway (and are far outnumbered by Miami Mexicans and others).
So, even with the endorsement of the Culinary Union - which was supposed to be highly influential with Latino voters - and with some Clinton camp attempts at gerrymandering to decrease turn-out from casino workers who are disproportionately Latino - the Latino vote went solidly for HRC, giving her the Nevada plurality and bragging rights, even though she got fewer delegates in the process.
I know not how much of this is based on racial identification and how much is based on good feelings about HRC, but clearly it has some implications for Obama’s vote getting ability in California’s primary in particular.
With this Latino edge for HRC I see little chance for Obama to substantially narrow HRC’s California lead much … unless Richardson endorses him right after SC and campaigns for him. I think he will. Why?
First of all I heard the props he was throwing Obama’s way during the debates. Specifically he took a question asking him how important experience was to be president and, after using it to tout all of his experience, went on to speak of JFK as a counter example … If he threw any props to HRC I missed them.
But most of all I think that he plans on being VP. He could likely eke that promise out of either of them but his role in an Obama White House would be greater. He’s worked with the Clintons before and my sense is that he knows that Bill will serve as HRCs main advisor there with little role for him other than sitting around his office. Obama will use him instead, actually give him a seat at the table. Richardson wants to make a difference and I think he sees VP in an Obama White House as the way to do it.
Look for a Richardson endorsement of Obama on time for the Sunday talk shows 1/27 (assuming a victory for Obama in SC) followed by him actively campaigning for Obama in California the next week and giving many Spanish language interviews nationally.
My Latina girlfriend is firmly in the Hillary camp. She thinks that Obama doesn’t “get” the immigration issue and is threatening to actually vote for McCain over Obama in the fall if those two make it out of the primaries.
One minor but important point re: the Hispanic vote. Richard Chávez, Cesar’s brother and an activist himself, endorsed Clinton last week. Not to mention organizer Dolores Huerta, who actually coined the phrase associated with the United Farm Workers - Sí se puede - endorsed HRC last May. Among Chicanos, it really doesn’t get any better than this.
Obama has appropriated the slogan in his campaign. Perhaps he’s done it since, but in the stump speech when he first started using it I do not recall him mentioning Chávez, Huerta, or the UFW in the speech. I think that annoyed some folks.