One clear trend from the primaries is that Hispanic Democrats are voting overwhelmingly for Clinton over Obama. Why? I must admit that I dont exactly have my finger on the pulse of the Hispanic electorate, but to my gringo eyes, I don’t see anything that would recommend Clinton over Obama. What am I missing?
I’ve been wondering that, too. She’s gotten some major endorsements from Latin and Hispanic politicians, I know that much. Do Latinos fall into other groups that have been behind Clinton, demographics-wise?
I think Clinton is more well known. People tend to gravitate toward what is familiar (ie. McCain, Clinton). I think there is also a large portion of the (older) minority community that just think Obama can’t win, so they go with what they know.
I’m once again going off the opinions of my wife who was born and raised in South America and have extensive experience in the South/Central American Latino communities of the DC area and the Mexican Latino communities of the Chicago area. She has worked in both regions in positions including community outreaches and other community support. She continues to work closely with Chicago Latinos on a daily basis. Still, these are her opinions and I can’t back them with cites beyond “Mrs. Jophiel said so”.
(A) There’s a general feeling among Hispanics that the Clintons have done a lot for them. My wife doesn’t really agree with the reality of this but there’s a general feeling that the Clintons are “on their side”. Obviously, Clinton has been playing this up to her best advantage.
(B) Many older or first-generation Hispanics are, bluntly put (and in her opinion), racist. They are distrustful of blacks and feel that electing a black male before a white female would be a mistake. Some think of it as a spectrum from white to black with brown in the middle and are resentful that a Latino president would be “jumped over” and we’d go right from white to black. This doesn’t bear out as much with younger Latinos or ones who have become more “Americanized” but it’s a powerful force.
There is considerable animosity between the Hispanic and black communities, particularly in certain cities. Black voters do not favor increased immigration as a rule, they compete with Hispanics for working-class jobs, and in some areas there is open gang warfare between black gangs and Hispanic ones - and in LA, between ordinary black citizens and Hispanic gangs.
Obama hasn’t contributed to this problem at all, but he may be a victim of these tensions to an extent.
This demographic will not win her the nom. However, if Obama could strengthn his ties with the hispanic communities, and with women over 45 he’d going to turn out on top.
My wife, a naturalized immigrant, said she’d heard that Hillary would be “good for immigrants.” When pressed to explain who she’d heard saying this and why they thought so, things rapidly became murky. But it is apparently a theme being circulated, at least in her immediate circle of the Brazilian community.
Not knowing the details (but having a pretty good idea of Hillary’s shtick), my assumption is that she’s given one or more speeches to immigrants’ rights groups telling them exactly what they wanted to hear with respect to amnesty. I pointed out to my wife that the bulk of the new, stricter laws affecting immigrants in our area (toughening driver’s license requirements and making it difficult to get loans/leases/mortgages) come from state or local legislation, so even in the sci-fi scenario where Hillary a) actually means what she says, b) will do what she promises if elected, and c) will succeed in getting what she wants, it’s not going to turn into Shangri-La for illegals overnight.
This is the key, I think, and goes back longer than you think. The Clinton’s have long focused on Hispanic organizations for support. Obama was very late beginning to address this situation (with endorsements from La Opinion, for example). To get a demographic to vote for you, you generally have to ask them to - the Clinton’s have been asking for Hispanic votes for years, Obama for about a week.
A Dominican friend of mine in NYC claims that it’s because Latinos are frequently racist and not very good at hiding it.
A mutual friend of ours, Puerto Rican, announced yesterday that he was voting for Hillary and would not vote for “Osama” under any circumstances even in the general election.
BTW, Asian voters in CA voted for Hillary by an even wider margin than Latinos there, according to the exit polling.
To echo this, my father (who was in charge of building large buildings) once told me that if a labor foreman on a job was black, the entire crew would be black. If the labor foreman was a Mexican, all the laborers would be Mexican. He then went on to say that if you saw a back on a Mexican crew, or a Mexican on a black crew he would be without a doubt the best worker on that particular crew. (this was union labor on large multi-million dollar jobs)
They would rather stick with their own. To many Mexican Americans a white person is more acceptable than a black person.
Someone on the boards recently said she had a conversation with a hispanic woman and when asked if she was voting for hilary the woman replied, “…isn’t she going to win???” :eek: When asked if she knew who Barack Obama was, she said, “no, who is that?”
This is a key factor affecting Obama. And this is something he is going to have to overcome in Texas.
You can’t take the comments of one woman and project them to an entire (and very diverse) group of people.
I’ll give you my take on it (American of Mexican descent here). Most of my family are Democrats…we are talking big time Democrats. I doubt that 90% of they have even even considered voting anything but strictly party line. They loved Clinton when he was in office. They loved Hillary when she was in office to. So…afaik every one of them voted for Hillary yesterday and plans to support her all the way.
It’s not a matter (at least in my own family) of not knowing who Obama is. They are well aware of him. It’s not a matter of disliking Obama because he’s black (there IS tension between blacks and hispanics, from both sides but especially from the hispanic side wrt Democrat politics). From my impression they like Obama fine and if he gets the nomination they will vote right along the party line for him. They just like Hillary better. They trust A Clinton™ because of all that they perceive Clinton (well, both Clinton’s) did for them and the country when he was in office…and they want that back. If they could they would vote for Bill again in a heart beat…make him king if he wanted that to.
Just my take on it. Just recently had a family reunion (about 400 people) and it came up several times. Hispanics LOVE to argue and fight about politics. 
-XT
I certainly didn’t mean what I said to speak for all hispanics - I apologize if it came across that way.
One thing you said intreagues me: Do they trust the Clinton’s because of what Bill did? Are they expecting a Hillary presidency to be the same as Bill’s? I’ve had a lot of two-for-the-price-of-one conversations in the last several months. It ain’t gonna happen - she wear’s the suit pants in that family [sup]tm[/sup]
In my very limited experience, the most open and belligerent racism I’ve encountered was between the Latin and African-American communities. Here in Vegas I commonly hear about race related violence between the two communities from school aged children on up to adults.
I know I am painting with a broad brush here, but if you look at racism coming from whites, it is strongest in the white underclass. (so called “white trash”)
As abused children tend to become abusive parents, so do racially discriminated minorities tend to learn practice racial discrimination.
Of note, It is claimed that my state (NM) has the highest percentage of Latino voters…the majority of them Democrats and thus able to vote in yesterday’s primary, and statistically insignificant numbers of blacks. Further, most of the Indians I know tend toward Clinton, and they are not an insignificant voting block in this state. Clinton and Obama are dead even to the point that a winner will not be declared for days if not weeks. If Clinton had scored big with Hispanic and white voters, this would not be the case.
It may be relevant that much of NM’s Latino population does not consider themselves immigrants, many of their families having arrived with Coronado’s expeditions 200 years before there was a USofA to immigrate to. Thus many candidates tend to make invalid assumptions when attempting to pander to them.
No worries. I just wanted to make the point that I doubt many voting Hispanics don’t know who Obama is. Even some of my family still back on the farm in Mexico know who he is.
They love Bill…plain and simple. They seem him as doing a lot for the Hispanic community (I disagree, but that’s another matter). They also see him as the president who was in office when a lot of my family went from being VERY poor to being…not so poor. They give him full credit for all the good things that happened in my family in the 90’s.
And yes, they think Hillary will be just like him. That it will be another new golden age if she is elected. That with her in office and the Democrats fully in power in the house and senate that all the good things that hard line Democrats have wanted for ever will happen (UHC, put the evil rich in their place, more social programs, fix the environment, expand and enhance the Hispanic community and bring them to the fore front of Democrat politics as they deserver, and cure cancer…and slap down the evil Republicans so that they never rise again. And yeah…I’m dead serious…these are their real expectations).
-XT
Will all this happen before or after Quetzalcoatl swoops down, snaps up and devours Lou Dobbs?
I’ve commented on this on the boards before, but I have friends who were appointees in the Clinton administration. The Clintons are well-known and respected in the Latino Democratic community, and particularly are remembered for placing Latinos in high-level (Cabinet and so forth) positions. This is especially true in Texas. Federico Peña and Henry Cisneros are probably the more well-known appointees, but there were many folks at the undersecretary level (a friend is one of those). Latinos had a powerful voice in Bill Clinton’s administration, and Hillary will likely follow suit.
I don’t think the “Latinos are racist towards Blacks” issue (and vice versa) is as prominent here in Texas. But one thing is true: relationships matter, and the intensity and duration of those relationships make them that much stronger. This is one of the issues I have with Obama’s candidacy. Having just appeared on the national scene, he hasn’t had the time or the opportunity to broker meaningful relationships with powerful constituencies. And it’s not as if Black voters in the South know him all that well, either. It seems to me that the prudent course would be to serve in the Senate and build those relationships, take the principled (and hard) stands with various communities, and then it’s not a leap of faith.
Thanks XT for the clarification. I appreciate it.
Third (or fourth) for “Hispanics just don’t like blacks”