My inner wonk likes Clinton: when I’ve taken those little online tests, I’ve had more points in agreement with her than with Obama (I’ll note, of course, that the thread nor the system allows me to choose my happy little gnome Kucinich).
My inner fanboy likes Obama: I’ve not heard him speak much, but whenever I have, I’ve gotten a mancrush on him. He’s smart, relaxed, perceptive, and funny.
My inner politician likes Obama: I think he’s got a much better chance at the presidency than Clinton does, for reasons that everyone knows.
My inner administrator likes Clinton: while I have no reason to think Obama wouldn’t do a good job at the presidency, I’m somewhat confident that Clinton would. Yeah, Republicans love to hate her, but I think that her sheer bureaucratic nature would overwhelm them, and I don’t mean that in a bad way. Some folks make excellent bureaucrats, inasmuch as they can manage a complex system in a way that makes the system almost invisible; my impression is that she’s got that talent in spades.
My inner idealist likes Obama: I have a lot fewer misgivings about his moral rectitude than I have about Clinton’s.
Ultimately, though, my inner politician’s alliance with my inner fanboy wins. While I’m more confident Clinton would run the presidency the way I like it, I’m a lot less confident that Clinton could get a chance to run it in the first place. Her win in the primary, IMO, makes a Republican president far likelier, and I think any of the Republican candidates would fuck up the world a lot worse than Obama or Clinton. I just don’t think the risk is worth it.
I agree with this premise, if not the conclusion (Obama). What I want from this election is a Democrat in the White House and a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate. (And I’m not even a Democrat! That’s how badly I want the Republicans out of power.) My preference in the primaries is for the candidate most likely to bring about my desired outcome: the most likely to weather the inevitable August/September swiftboating, the most likely to get out the votes, the most likely to work the necessary backroom deals, etc. I think Clinton is that candidate, but if Obama can do it, then more power to him.
If there’s a Dem majority in Congress – and there will be – she won’t need the Pubs’ cooperation, and the Dems will have no reason not to cooperate – they, too, will want to get something done.
Because it’s not just a matter of skillset, it’s what they’re likely to do with it. Too many Pubs – and all the frontrunners in this race, except maybe for Huckabee – are committed to a neocon imperialist-interventionist, as distinct from a realist, vision of foreign policy. (For an in-depth discussion of these traditions, see here.)
I’m disturbed by how sharp the rhetoric between the two camps has become. I understand that a lot is on the line here, but should one of them win they will need the other to be a leader in the Senate to promote new policies. The two of them are not far apart on most issues and will need to work as a team in the future to make things happen.
I’m leaning toward Obama right now. I think it’s very important that our next president be someone who did not vote to authorize the war. We have to regain our footing in the world and that kind of baggage will not help one bit. This was the greatest issue of our generation and to be on the wrong side of it is a huge liability.
I am faced with this dilemma on Saturday when I go to vote in the Nevada Caucus.
First of all, I will vote in the General Election for whichever Democrat wins the Primary. I think we have a great choice of candidates and this is one of the hardest primaries I have ever had to vote in - simply because all of the top three are excellent choices. Then again, I would vote for Carrot Top before I would vote for a Republican candidate this year.
I think I have finally decided to go for Obama. My main goal is to get a Democrat into the White House to try to clean up the mess of the past seven years. As much as I think Hillary would be a great President, I see a tough road ahead for the General Election and my poor, frayed nerves can’t handle the idea of another squeaker loss in November. As others have mentioned, Hillary would bring out Republican voters en masse, crawling over broken glass, just for the joy of voting against her.
However, I think Obama stands a good chance of getting a lot of Independent voters, he wouldn’t raise the wrath of moderate Republicans who might not be all that wild about their candidate and stay home, and I think he can fire up a lot of new, younger voters to actually get off their butts and vote. In other words, I think he can go all the way and actually win this election.
I have also read Obama’s book, “The Audacity Of Hope” and found it to be quite good. I only have a few minor quibbles with some things he wrote, but all in all, the man pretty much spoke from the heart and hit the mark on most every subject I too hold dear. I think he is the breath of fresh air this country needs, and I believe even a sizable number of Republicans might just be able to tolerate the idea of him winning.
So Nevada is neck and neck right now. What is your sense of the ability of each side to get people out to the caucuses? How well do HRC’s structure and the Union’s organization fare against each other?
I’m assuming a narrow HRC victory in Nevada and a solid victory for Obama in S.C. which sets them neck and neck going into Tsunami Tuesday. What if Obama upsets and wins both? How about the other way?
It feels to me like Obama will need both wins to take Totally Tubular Tuesday. Much as I like him, he does not seem to be shining under the hot lights of actual national politics. He may not be fit enough yet for a fight with a foe like Hillary- she’s extremely good at this.
On the other hand- I have been wrong about almost everything else up until now.
Not sure which thread this fits, bet here’s as good a place as any:
William Jelani Cobb (a history professor at Spelman College) has witten an interesting Opinion Piece on the generational disconnect between Obama and some of the Old Guard civil rights leaders. Sample:
Regarding turnout for the caucus, four years ago was the first time since I had lived here that I was able to go. Four years prior to that (2002) a grand total of 600 people showed up for the Clark County caucus and as we all know, Bush won the election that year. After four years of Bush, the next caucus (2004) was held at a high school gymnasium. I knew something was up when I had to park five blocks away and walk to the school gymnasium…Bush had pissed off enough Dems in Clark County that over 6000 people had shown up! They had to change plans quickly and we were shuffled off to a football stadium and filled it. If the deep seeded loathing of Bush is any indication, I have the feeling this year is going to break all records. I just read that two weeks ago, over 4000 people newly registered to vote, and that already this week, over 2000 new voters have registered - that total is more than attended that last caucus! BTW, Clark County (metropolitan Las Vegas) is growing quickly and also getting more and more Democrats moving in (thanks California!). Bush lost Clark County in the last election by a good margin, but was able to carry the state due to heavy turnout in the traditionally more conservative northern part of the state.
My best guess is to expect a record turnout for Saturday…newscasters have been saying maybe 50,000 might show up state-wide. I think it will be a lot more. This year, instead of one location in Clark County and a few others upstate, they have 1700 locations spread throughout the state for caucuses.
I don’t think the endorsements by the Culinary Union carry all that much sway, contrary to popular belief. Yes, it is a huge union, but in the grand scheme of things and contrary to popular belief, casino workers are only a very small percentage of the the general populace. At the small college where I teach, the students are fired up and have registered to vote…and my read is that most of them are going for Obama.
My prediction? A very tight race, with Obama winning by a slim margin, HRC second and Edwards a decent third place.
